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  #2701  
Old 01-12-2020, 06:39 PM
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Bovada

($$)


Seahawks ML +170 (67%)

Packers -4.5 (52%)

Under 45.5 (56%)
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  #2702  
Old 01-12-2020, 06:56 PM
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BetOnline

"House big time Packers fans"

Biggest bet game of the season

61% of cash on Seahawks +4.5

Also need Packers outright big too

Action on total close to 50/50
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  #2703  
Old 01-12-2020, 07:09 PM
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Large casino player at MGM books gave chunk back after Chiefs pull away

$335,000 On spread / 2H spread fell ... so up $65,000 for day, $757,500 on Divisional Weekend

Has $110,000 Packers -4, and (2) $110,000 bets Packers -4.5 ... and Pack 1H -3, $220,000 across 2 bets
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  #2704  
Old 01-12-2020, 07:12 PM
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A bettor at Beau Biloxi casino placed $250,000 on under 45.5 right before kickoff
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  #2705  
Old 01-12-2020, 08:15 PM
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Russell Wilson is 84-54-4 (61%) ATS in the 2nd half, including 11-3 ATS in the playoffs
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  #2706  
Old 01-12-2020, 08:24 PM
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Global market

Halftime

Public money buying Seattle but the sharp money can't get enough of Green Bay for the 2nd Half and all the way down to +3

Total is pretty mixed from both sides
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  #2707  
Old 01-12-2020, 08:25 PM
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Global market

Halftime

Public money buying Seattle but the sharp money can't get enough of Green Bay for the 2nd Half and all the way down to +3

Total is pretty mixed from both sides
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  #2708  
Old 01-12-2020, 09:59 PM
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MGM

Large casino player wins $300,000 on Packers spread bets

Loses $100,000 on Packers 2H moneyline and $100,000 on 2H Under 21.5

So for game, up $300,000


Divisional Round Weekend, guy is up $1,057,500
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  #2709  
Old 01-12-2020, 10:18 PM
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Favorites (both home) went 2-0 SU & ATS Sunday

Faves 4-3 SU & ATS (SEA-PHI closed pick'em & not included)

Home/road teams have split 4-4 SU & ATS

Overs 2-0 today ... Unders 6-2 overall
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  #2710  
Old 01-12-2020, 10:52 PM
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------ AFC Championship ------------------------------

--------------------------- NFC Championship --------


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  #2711  
Old 01-12-2020, 10:54 PM
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MGM

The large casino player "might" be heading home. If so, here's what he did on the way out tonight:


$110,000 49ers -7 vs Packers

$110,000 Titans +7.5 at Chiefs
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  #2712  
Old 01-12-2020, 11:02 PM
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SuperBook

Took $55,000 on the 49ers -7
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  #2713  
Old 01-13-2020, 05:24 AM
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NYK. Thanks for all your time and info. All of this info is great. Appreciate all you do. Thanks
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  #2714  
Old 01-14-2020, 03:53 PM
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Market update

Early sharp money hitting the AFC Championship game


Sunday 3:05 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans (11-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)

The AFC championship game, opened with Kansas City listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Chiefs at Arrowhead. However, despite two-thirds of bets backing Kansas City the line has remained frozen at 7.5 and the juice is trending toward Tennessee (+7.5 at -115), signaling liability on the road dog and a possible move down to 7.

Playoff dogs +7 or more are 37-26 ATS (59%) since 2003, including 6-2 ATS (75%) in conference title games.

When the line stays the same or moves toward a dog they've gone 59-42 ATS (58%), including 3-1 ATS this postseason.

Home favorites like the Chiefs are 14-12 ATS (53.8%) in conference title games.


The total opened at 51.5 and has risen to 52.5 behind two-thirds of bets taking the over.

Conference championship overs are 18-11 (62%) since 2003.

The forecast calls for frigid temperatures (20 degrees) but no precipitation and only 3-4 MPH winds. When the temperature is less than 30 degrees the over is 116-81 (58.9%), including 24-14 (63.2%) in the postseason. Outdoor playoff unders are 4-2 this postseason and 77-58 (57%) since 2003.

Tony Corrente, the lead ref, has historically favored unders (56.7%)
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  #2715  
Old 01-14-2020, 04:11 PM
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John Murray, director of The SuperBook


AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

These two teams met in Week 10, with Tennessee notching a 35-32 win as 5-point home pups.

“We opened Chiefs -9.5 and took a bunch of bets on the Titans from arbitrage players when the market came out lower, and those plays knocked us down to 7.5. The Chiefs will kick off a lot of teasers and moneyline parlays that will go to the 49ers. The Titans are a much better position for us in the future book than the Chiefs, but we win on both.”

The total was also quickly on the move, opening at 50.5 and moving to 52 within 30 minutes.



NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME

“We saw money coming in both ways when we were at 7, and took a lot of play on the Packers when we moved up to +7.5. That knocked us back down to the opener of 7, and we took a $55,000 bet to win $50,000 on 49ers -7. We are currently at San Francisco -7."

These two teams met in Week 12 in San Francisco, where the Niners hammered the Pack 37-8 giving 3 points.

“This already has the makings of a monster handle game," Murray said. "Both sides are very popular In general, and both teams will see a lot of support. Packers moneyline will be an extremely popular side, as it was three years ago, when they lost the NFC Championship Game in Atlanta.”

The SuperBook opened the total at 45.5 and ticked to 45 Sunday evening.
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  #2716  
Old 01-14-2020, 04:18 PM
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MGM Sportsbook at the Beau Rivage Casino in Mississippi

Took $120,000 on San Francisco -7
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  #2717  
Old 01-15-2020, 03:23 PM
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  #2718  
Old 01-15-2020, 05:30 PM
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South Point

Just took $44,000 on Titans +7.5
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  #2719  
Old 01-15-2020, 09:34 PM
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Home Favorites in the Divisional Round went 3-1 on a +6 and +10 Pt Teaser last week.


Record Since 2012 Playoffs:

+6 Teaser: 25-5 (83.3%)

+10 Teaser: 26-3-1 (89.7%)


Since the 2015 Playoffs, the +10 Pt Teaser is:

17-1-1 (94.4%)
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  #2720  
Old 01-16-2020, 12:32 AM
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  #2721  
Old 01-16-2020, 12:34 AM
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BetOnline

NFL Conference Championship Early Action (bets):


55% on 49ers -7.5

59% on Chiefs -7.5
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  #2722  
Old 01-16-2020, 12:44 PM
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BetOnline

Current Win/Loss for the Super Bowl futures:


1. 49ers +165 (Epic Win)
2. Titans +750 (massive win)
3. Packers +750 (very large win)
4. Chiefs +125 (very large loss)
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  #2723  
Old 01-16-2020, 05:44 PM
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Aaron Rodgers' last 5 playoff losses all came to teams he also lost to that regular season:

- 2016 NFC Championship at ATL
- 2015 NFC Divisional at ARI
- 2014 NFC Championship at SEA
- 2013 NFC Wild Card vs SF
- 2012 NFC Divisional at SF

The 49ers beat Rodgers 37-8 in Week 12


Rodgers faces the 49ers' #1 pass defense Sunday.

Rodgers against #1 pass defenses, including playoffs:

- 1-4 record (0-4 on the road)
- 4 pass TD, 4 INT
- 72.2 passer rating
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  #2724  
Old 01-17-2020, 02:39 PM
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Friday market update


Titans at Chiefs:

This line opened with Kansas City listed as 7.5-point home favorites. The public is all over the Chiefs with two-thirds of bets laying the points. All week, this line has remained frozen at 7.5. The fact that oddsmakers refused to raise it to 8 despite the lopsided Chiefs betting signaled sharp liability on the road dog Titans. Yesterday we saw sharps make their move on Tennessee, hitting the Titans plus the hook (+ 7.5), moving the line down to 7. We now have a true sharp reverse line move on Tennessee plus the points.



Packers at 49ers:

The NFC Championship game line opened San Francisco -7, quickly moved to -7.5 and hasn't budged since. However, the over has taken in sharp money over the last 24 hours, rising from 45 to 46.5.
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  #2725  
Old 01-17-2020, 04:57 PM
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