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  #76  
Old 09-05-2019, 04:55 PM
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Jeff Stoneback, director of trading for MGM Resorts sportsbooks


GREEN BAY PACKERS AT CHICAGO BEARS – OPEN: -4; MOVE: -3.5; MOVE: -3

As lunchtime loomed in the Pacific Time Zone on Thursday, Stoneback wanted this game to start sooner rather than later.

“Actually, I wish it would kick off right now. We’d sit back and enjoy the game, and be a winner no matter what happens”

“There’s a bit more money on the Bears, but there’s enough money in the pool that we’re a four-way winner. We’d be a small winner with the Bears and a decent-sized winner with the Packers.”

However, with the game still a few hours out, Stoneback expects MGM books will have a stronger rooting interest by kickoff.

“We’re at Bears -3 (-120) right now” ... “At that price, it’s 2/1 tickets and money on the Bears. It’s trending that way,” he said. “So we’ll probably need the Packers, just based on the way the ticket count is going. Worst-case scenario, the Packers don’t cover, we might be a small loser.”

This game went on the board May 29 with Chicago a 4-point chalk and dipped to -3 by Aug. 19 on underdog money.

The total opened at 46 and peaked at 47 Wednesday, then ticked back to 46.5 today.
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  #77  
Old 09-05-2019, 05:35 PM
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Aaron Rodgers in September


19-19 ATS (avg line: -3.9) ... 25-12-1 O/U
at home: 13-7 ATS ... 13-7 O/U
on road: 6-12 ATS ... 12-5-1 O/U

Road dog: 0-5 SU/ATS ... 4-1 O/U

vs DIV: 10-3-1 SU ... 10-4 ATS ... 8-6 O/U
vs NDIV: 14-10 SU ... 9-15 ATS ... 17-6-1 OU
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  #78  
Old 09-05-2019, 06:17 PM
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September Thursday Games


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  #79  
Old 09-05-2019, 06:35 PM
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Tony Corrente is the lead official for tonight's Packers-Bears game...

The Under is 95-72-3 (56.9%) when Corrente is the lead official, the most profitable referee to the Under since 2003.

A $100 bettor would be up $1,751 backing the Under in that span!
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  #80  
Old 09-05-2019, 06:36 PM
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Green Bay offense threw the ball 42.7% of the time (123 PA/288 plays) on plays under center last season -- highest in NFL ... League Avg: 30.4%

Bears offense threw the ball 20.0% of the time (44 PA/220 plays) on plays under center last season -- lowest in NFL ... League Avg: 30.4%

The Bears defense forced opposing offenses to go three and out on 41.9% of drives in the first half last season ... The league average was just 22.4%

When Aaron Rodgers is below his average completion percentage (62.7%), his team is 2-10 (.167) since the start of the 2017 season -- 2nd worst of 25 Qualified QBs in NFL ... League Avg: .423
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  #81  
Old 09-05-2019, 06:45 PM
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  #82  
Old 09-05-2019, 06:51 PM
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  #83  
Old 09-05-2019, 07:03 PM
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MGM Race & Sports


Green Bay
Chicago -3 (-125)
Total:47

66% Spread $$ on Bears
59% Spread Tix on Bears
85% of Total $$ on over
63% of Total Tix on under
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  #84  
Old 09-05-2019, 07:04 PM
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SuperBook

Just took a $26,000 bet on Packers +3 (EV) from a respected player
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  #85  
Old 09-05-2019, 07:08 PM
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Packers are 56-39-3 all-time in Week 1

Their .589 win % on Opening Week is the 3rd best in NFL history
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  #86  
Old 09-05-2019, 07:10 PM
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Global market

The public is on the Bears and the sharp action has been strong for Green Bay +3.5. However the sharp action stopped dead at +3 and now action is mixed at 3

The total is seeing split public action with the sharps leaning ever so slightly to the OVER 46.5
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  #87  
Old 09-05-2019, 07:15 PM
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Looking to bet NFL player props tonight?

History says to look to the under.

The Action Networks NFL Player Prop tool’s best value plays for Thursday Night Football:


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  #88  
Old 09-05-2019, 07:45 PM
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% of $$ bet for tonight's Packers vs Bears (-3) game:

Fan Duel
GB: 48%
CHI: 52%

DraftKings
GB: 56%
CHI: 44%
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  #89  
Old 09-05-2019, 07:49 PM
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SuperBook

Book needs Packers for “big decision"

Bettors hitting Over on Rodgers/Trubisky touchdown props
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  #90  
Old 09-05-2019, 07:50 PM
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Packers will look to avoid losing 9 straight road games to NFC opponents for the first time in franchise history
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  #91  
Old 09-05-2019, 07:54 PM
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Mr. P

All 3 of these for the 1st Quarter

$14,000 on Bears -140

$10,000 on Bears -0.5 (+116)

$5,000 GB/CHI Under 7.5 (-110)
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  #92  
Old 09-05-2019, 08:07 PM
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BetOnline

"House rooting for the Packers and Over"

57% of $$ on the Bears (-3)
63% on Under (47)
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  #93  
Old 09-05-2019, 08:10 PM
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Bookmaker


53% of Bets: Bears
58% of $$: Packers

57% of Bets: Under
59% of $$: Over

"Decent chunk of teaser, parlay & $-Line liability with Bears"
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  #94  
Old 09-06-2019, 02:22 PM
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The Browns are 1-18-1 straight up in Week 1 since 1999
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  #95  
Old 09-06-2019, 05:34 PM
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Early Top 10 most popular Week 1 games at the 100+ William Hill Sports Books across America



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  #96  
Old 09-06-2019, 05:35 PM
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  #97  
Old 09-07-2019, 08:43 PM
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CG Technology


$27,500 on Falcons (+3.5) over Vikings

$22,000 on Falcons (+4)

(2) $20,000 ML bets to win $4,000 each on Seahawks (-470) over Bengals
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  #98  
Old 09-07-2019, 08:48 PM
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Global market

These can change dramatically by tomorrow morning but the current highest public concentration is Baltimore

The highest sharp concentration is Carolina
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  #99  
Old 09-07-2019, 10:29 PM
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In 23 career NFL starts, Deshaun Watson has lost just 2 by more than a touchdown
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  #100  
Old 09-07-2019, 11:21 PM
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MGM Race & Sports

5 biggest ticket count discrepancy’s for week 1

(Point spread)

77% on Seahawks vs Bengal
80% on Browns vs Titans
85% on Rams vs Panther
85% on Ravens vs Dolphin
90% on Chiefs vs Jags
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