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  #1526  
Old 11-14-2019, 06:31 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Since 1989 on Thursday Night Football, when a team is a Home Favorite of (-0.5) to (-3) and has a worse record than a Divisional opponent:

SU: 7-0 (100%)

ATS: 7-0 (100%)

UNDER: 6-1 (85.7%)

This trend has only happened 5 times since 2000
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  #1527  
Old 11-14-2019, 06:51 PM
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SuperBook

"It’s pretty much all public play, small decision, book needs Steelers outright due to moneyline action on Browns ... Also needs Under"
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  #1528  
Old 11-14-2019, 07:00 PM
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BetOnline

"House needs the Browns tonight"

63% of $$ on Steelers (+3)


Also ... 58% of $$ on Over (42)
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  #1529  
Old 11-14-2019, 07:37 PM
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NFL bettor who went large on William Hill mobile app in New Jersey the past two weeks

$640,000 Browns moneyline (-160) ... To win $400,000
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  #1530  
Old 11-14-2019, 09:02 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Global market

Halftime

Sharp and public money on Cleveland +0.5 up to -125

Not much happening on the total
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  #1531  
Old 11-15-2019, 08:58 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
Before week 13 when New England is off a SU loss they are 34-11-2 ATS
Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
Patriots are 47-9 SU off a loss since 2003 ... 40-16 ATS

18-4 SU and 16-6 ATS in this same spot since 2013

Most profitable NFL quarterback after a loss? Brady

Since 2003, after a loss he has gone 34-13 (72%) ATS
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  #1532  
Old 11-15-2019, 09:18 AM
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Cold and windy totals (<40°F, >10 mph):

13-25 O/U last 5 seasons


Trend to keep on the back burner when something fits
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  #1533  
Old 11-15-2019, 09:22 AM
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Vikings at home:

27-9 SU (75%) last 5 seasons

25-9-2 ATS (74%) last 5 seasons
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  #1534  
Old 11-15-2019, 09:42 AM
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Falcons (+14) upset the Saints and are now on the road in Carolina

Teams are 5-30 SU and 12-23 ATS on the road the game after an upset as a TD+ dog since 2014
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  #1535  
Old 11-15-2019, 10:13 AM
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Patriots 30-2 ATS off a loss when not favored by more than 6 points
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  #1536  
Old 11-15-2019, 02:15 PM
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Bill O'Brien after a Bye Week:

5-0 (1H) ... ATS 4-1 (FG) ATS:

17-7 @ Was (-2) W
21-21 @ Sea (+3.5) W
14-10 @ Jax (+1.5) W
3-6 @ Cin (+6) W
14-7 @ Cle (+2.5) W

23-21 @ Was (-3) L
38-41 @ Sea (+6) W
24-21 @ Jax (2.5) W
10-6 @ Cin (+10) W
23-7 @ Cle (4.5) W
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  #1537  
Old 11-15-2019, 02:45 PM
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Cardinals at 49ers has become the most intriguing game of Week 11, at least from a betting perspective.

SuperBook opened this game San Francisco -14, but by Friday afternoon it was down to 10.

“We went down to 13.5 right away, and then we skipped all the way down to 11.5. It wasn’t really critical because there’s not a key number in there.”

It fell another point to 10.5, when a sharp bettor came in Thursday and put the biggest bet of the week so far at the book ($20,000) on the Cardinals, so the number became 10.

It’s a game where both the public and the sharps appear to be backing the Cardinals.

“For the public, we think they think of the 49ers first loss, but we think they also think about the game from a couple weeks ago, where the 49ers barely beat the Cardinals (28-25)”

SuperBook also said they were surprised to find that more parlays have the Cardinals on them than do the 49ers.



The Westgate isn’t the only shop seeing a lot of support for Arizona:

FanDuel, 86% of the money is on the Cardinals ... DraftKings reports it at 81%.
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  #1538  
Old 11-15-2019, 02:47 PM
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As of Friday afternoon

Chiefs are getting 92% of the money at both DraftKings and FanDuel
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  #1539  
Old 11-15-2019, 02:55 PM
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South Point

So far has taken two decent size bets on Cardinals

+11 (-110) ... $22,000 to win $20,000

+10.5 (-110) ... $33,000 to win $30,000
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  #1540  
Old 11-15-2019, 03:35 PM
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SuperBook

Just took $55,000 on Chiefs -3.5 to win $50,000
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  #1541  
Old 11-15-2019, 04:00 PM
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Draft Kings Sportsbook

81% of bets ... 80% of $$ on Patriots

Line is holding steady at 3.5
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  #1542  
Old 11-15-2019, 05:32 PM
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Draft Kings Sportsbook

87% of bets ... 89% of $$ on Jets

Line opened Jets +1 ... but now up to Jets +2.5
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  #1543  
Old 11-15-2019, 09:58 PM
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Two weeks ago, the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars played in London.

The six teams that have traveled across the pond this year are a combined 0-6 straight up and against the spread after returning stateside, losing by an average of 18.7 points.

The over has been streaking, too, with a 37-25-2 record for post-London teams and a 9-3 record since the start of 2018. For home teams coming off a post-London bye, the over is 16-6-1 with six straight wins.
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  #1544  
Old 11-16-2019, 12:16 PM
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BetOnline

"NE @ Philly gonna be a whopper Sunday. 84% of the bets on Pats. More bets on NE than any other two teams combined"


Other bet %:

87% Dal -7
71% NO -5.5
62% Car -4
57% Jax +3
60% Den +10.5
80% NYJ +2.5
51% Buf -6.5
52% Balt -4.5
83% Az +10.5
64% Oak -11.5
67% Chi +6
78% KC -4
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  #1545  
Old 11-16-2019, 07:39 PM
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MGM Race & Sports

Most straight bet tickets for Week 11

1. Patriots (by wide margin)
2. Saints
3. Ravens


Fewest number of straight bet tix

1. Lions
2. Bengals
3. Redskins
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  #1546  
Old 11-16-2019, 10:14 PM
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Draft Kings Sportsbook

Week 11 Totals that are getting a lot of attention:

1. Texans vs. Ravens OVER 51.5 (87%)
2. Saints vs. TB Bucs OVER 49.5 (86%)
3. AZ Cards vs. 49ers OVER 44 (83%)
4. Patriots vs. Eagles OVER 45 (83%)
5. Bengals vs. Raiders UNDER 49 (66%)
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  #1547  
Old 11-16-2019, 11:12 PM
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Wager Street

Early Sharp Action

Cowboys (small)
Falcons
Patriots
Raiders
Bears
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  #1548  
Old 11-17-2019, 10:43 AM
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MGM Race & Sports

One player last night:

$88,000 Jets +2.5 at WAS
$77,000 Raiders -11.5 vs. CIN
$88,000 on Chiefs -4 vs. LAC in Mexico City

Total: $253,000 in bets, to win $230,000
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  #1549  
Old 11-17-2019, 10:44 AM
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MGM

Some teams seeing sharp play today include:

Raiders, "which is gonna be ugly, because public on Oakland, too."

Broncos, multiple sharp players

Redskins, Bills, Falcons
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  #1550  
Old 11-17-2019, 10:46 AM
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MGM on NE-PHI

Patriots from -3.5 to -4 Friday, then -4.5 late last night

"This will be the biggest game of the afternoon, because everything from the morning will flow into Patriots,” alluding to parlay play on Pats.

Pointspread betting is lopsided, too. “Money is 20/1 on the Patriots, ticket count is 7/1, and New England is No. 1 in spread tickets. This is already a six-figure decision.”
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