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Old 09-07-2020, 08:05 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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The Super Bowl Loser in Week 1

4-16 ATS (20%) since 2000


Call it a Super Bowl hangover if you’d like, but this awful record for Super Bowl losers in Week 1 of the following season is likely the result of them simply being overvalued based on their previous year’s result. There’s a lot of turnover in the NFL from season to season and many early-season spreads are taking last year’s data into account.

This is typically a premier matchup for the opening week of the season with the Super Bowl loser paired up with a decent opponent, and in these 20 games, the Super Bowl loser was only an underdog four times.
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Old 09-07-2020, 08:06 PM
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Double-Digit Underdogs in Week 1

The record: 16-7 ATS (69.6%) over the last 25 seasons

Expanding more ... dogs of 8 points or more are 38-15 ATS (71.7%) in Week 1 over the past 25 seasons, including 14-4 ATS in the last 10 seasons.


This is a bit similar to the Super Bowl loser trend above where it appears big favorites are being overvalued based on what we saw in the previous season and narratives that were created during the offseason.

Being a favorite of 10 or more doesn’t leave a whole lot of room for error and there’s a lot of unknowns entering the first week of any season. Coaching changes might have dramatically improved or worsened a team, some squads might be rustier than others, some rookies or lesser-known players might make an immediate impact, etc. And that right there is the tricky part of betting in Week 1 of a season.

We always see a handful of teams take a big step forward, while others regress. As a result, many bettors get burned based on going all-in on handicapping using data from the previous season. Each week of the season will present betting options that look like sure things, but this 25-year trend proves that those sure things should probably be avoided in Week 1.
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Old 09-07-2020, 08:07 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Saints in Week 1 and 2

2-15 ATS (11.7%) in the last 17


Some teams are slow starters and need a few weeks to get going and the Saints are at the top of the list of early-season underperformers.

In 2019, they won a Monday night slugfest vs Houston 30-28 in Week 1, failing to cover the 6.5-point spread, then got destroyed 27-9 vs the Rams in Week 2. They then went on to cover the spread in seven of their next eight games.

In 2018, we saw them choke in Week 1 and lose to the Bucs as a 10-point favorite at home. The following week, in another home game, they barely snuck by the Hue Jackson- and Tyrod Taylor-led Browns, winning by three as a 9.5-point favorite. They then went on to cover the spread in nine straight games after the rough start.

In 2017, we saw them fail to cover in the first two weeks, then go on to cover the spread in six of their next seven games. In 2016, they split the first two, then covered five of their next six. In 2015, they didn’t cover in their first two games, then covered in four of their next five.

The bottom line is that Sean Payton has done a poor job getting off to a good start and Drew Brees also hasn’t been sharp early in the season, proven by his career September QB rating of 94.7, which is his lowest of any month.
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Old 09-07-2020, 08:08 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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The Seahawks in Night Games

26-9-3 ATS (74.2%) since 2007


Breakdown of Seattle in night games in a few specific situations:

Night games at home: 16-5-2 ATS since November 2007

Night games as an underdog: 12-4 ATS since December 2006

Night games in December: 11-2 ATS since December 2011

Night games vs teams with winning records: 13-6 ATS since December 2006
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Old 09-07-2020, 08:09 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Patriots in Buffalo

19-8-3 ATS (70.3%) since 1991


Some might argue that this trend doesn’t matter because it extends to well before the Brady-Belichick era, but it’s actually a better number if you shrink it down to start in 2000 when Belichick became the Patriots’ head coach, as they’ve gone 14-5-1 (73.6%) ATS in this span. And, yes, I realize the 2020 Patriots are a much different-looking team, so settle down.

So, what gives? Is this simply due to the Patriots’ historic domination of the league and the Bills’ constant turnover at head coach and QB making them one of the league’s most elite dumpster fires? Mostly, yes.

Specific to the Belichick era, the Patriots have a ridiculous 12 double-digit victories in Buffalo, but they’ve only been a double-digit favorite in three of the 20 games. They’ve been routinely undervalued and their league-best 61 percent ATS covering percentage over the last 10 years is proof of that. But, here’s the thing, they have a winning ATS record across dozens of different spots, which is nuts considering they’re the most elite dynasty in football history.
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Old 09-07-2020, 08:11 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Home Teams on Thursday Nights

91-68-7 (57.2%) over the last 15 seasons


Big moneymaker during the 2018 season when the home team went 10-3-2 ATS on Thursday nights.
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Old 09-07-2020, 08:12 PM
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Cowboys UNDERs on the Road

27-13 (67.5%) to the UNDER since September 20, 2015


At first look, this seems more coincidental than anything, but Dallas has performed much differently offensively on the road the past five seasons. In four of the five years, there’s a pretty big disparity in their home/away scoring averages:

2019: 10 fewer points averaged in road games

2018: 7 fewer points averaged in road games

2016: 5.8 fewer points averaged in road games

2015: 3.9 fewer points averaged in road games


We also have a similar pattern on defense with the team performing much better on that side of the ball outside of Dallas in three of the last five seasons:

2017: 6.0 fewer points allowed on the road

2016: 2.8 fewer points allowed on the road

2015: 10.0 fewer points allowed on the road
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Old 09-07-2020, 08:13 PM
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Chiefs in Divisional Road Games

17-3 ATS (85%) since December 2013


It’s no coincidence that this record coincides with the first season of Andy Reid’s tenure as head coach of the Chiefs. He has a reputation as an incredible game planner and good coaches tend to know teams within their division quite well.

The interesting thing about these games is that the three ATS losses all came vs the Raiders, while KC is a perfect 13-0 ATS in its last 13 games as a visitor vs Denver and San Diego/Los Angeles.

One concern this season is that the defending Super Bowl champs and Super Bowl 55 favorites could face higher-than-normal spreads, at least early in the season.
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  #9  
Old 09-07-2020, 08:14 PM
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Favorites on Thanksgiving

31-13 ATS (70.4% since 2005)


And this trend isn’t just restricted to the 2000s. Favorites covering on Thanksgiving is a long-standing tradition as they’ve gone 54-31 ATS (63.5%) since 1984.

You’d think home teams would have a significant edge here, as laid out in the TNF trend above, but home teams were favored in just over half of the games since 2005 and only went 18-24 ATS.

33 of 54 games since 2000 were decided by double digits.
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  #10  
Old 09-07-2020, 08:15 PM
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Steelers as a double-digit favorite

9-24 ATS (27.2%) since December 2001


Pittsburgh has been playing down to weaker competition for almost two decades and has been especially bad in this spot recently, going 0-6 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points since the start of the 2017 season. Most notably, they’ve been atrocious as a double-digit road favorite in this span, going 1-10 ATS.

Mike Tomlin took over as Steelers head coach in 2007 so most of this inefficiency as a big favorite is on his watch. They’ve still been an outright winner in most of these games, going 23-5 under Tomlin, but they clearly underestimate weaker opponents, making them a fantastic fade as a big favorite.

The Steelers won’t have as many opportunities as a double-digit favorite this season, especially now that the Browns are more competitive — Pittsburgh has been a double-digit favorite eight times vs Cleveland in Tomlin’s tenure as head coach — but they could find themselves as a big favorite in back-to-back weeks, hosting the Bengals in Week 10 followed by a visit to Jacksonville in Week 11.
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Old 09-07-2020, 08:17 PM
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No Brady, so these might be useless now ...


Patriots: 39-19 ATS at home over their last 58 games

Patriots: 18-7-1 ATS after a loss since October 13, 2013

Patriots: 16-1 ATS in their last 17 1st Quarters at home
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Old 09-07-2020, 08:17 PM
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Bears: 5-16 ATS in their last 21 1st Quarters on the road

Bears: UNDER in 16 of their last 20 1st Quarters
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Old 09-07-2020, 08:18 PM
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Cowboys: UNDER in 17 of their last 19 1st Quarters on the road
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Old 09-07-2020, 08:19 PM
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Raiders: 6-24 SU in last 30 games with 1 p.m. ET start time
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Old 09-07-2020, 08:19 PM
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Colts: 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 Week 1 games
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Old 09-07-2020, 08:20 PM
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Browns: 2-20 SU in their last 22 in Pittsburgh
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Old 09-07-2020, 08:20 PM
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Lions vs Vikings: UNDER in 17 of last 23 matchups
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Old 09-07-2020, 08:21 PM
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Seahawks: 14-4 ATS in their last 18 vs 49ers
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Old 09-07-2020, 08:21 PM
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Texans: 8-23-1 ATS in night games since 2009
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Old 09-07-2020, 08:21 PM
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Washington: 6-17 ATS in night games since 2013
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Old 09-07-2020, 08:22 PM
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Broncos: 75-22-2 SU at home in September since 1970
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Old 09-07-2020, 08:22 PM
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Titans: 9-25-1 ATS in their last 35 divisional road games
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Old 09-07-2020, 08:32 PM
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Nice info. Thanks NYK.
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2018 NFL Pick 5 Contest 49-33 60%
2017 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICK 7 CHAMPION 68-29 70%
2017 NFL Pick 5 Contest 49-33 60%
2016 4th place NFL Pick 5 Contest 62%
2016 4th place NCAAF Pick 7 Contest 61%
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Old 09-08-2020, 03:26 AM
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Thanks for taking the time to post all this info Knight, very helpful buddy I for one appreciate not only this form but all the others you post, this info is very important for all us "old" guys who can't keep up with chit anymore. This being a busy time of the year and you giving your time to do this means a hell of a lot to us !!!!
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Old 09-08-2020, 06:08 AM
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Great info NYK. Thanks
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