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  #276  
Old 10-25-2020, 10:43 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Pittsburgh is 0-20-1 OU since 10/2015 coming off a game where they threw for less than 205 yards.

Steelers threw for just 148 yards last week in their win over the Browns.







With the line flipping to the Titans, since 2014 when the Steelers are a Dog in the first 11 weeks of the season, the Under is 14-1



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  #277  
Old 10-25-2020, 11:42 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Going back to Oct 2017 when the Browns are off a bad offensive performance in a low scoring game, they bounce back strong with 10 straight Overs.

They average 29 ppg in this spot and the games go over by more than 15 points on average






Cleveland's last 7 games as favorites have all gone Over the total


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  #278  
Old 10-25-2020, 11:56 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Wacky one ...

Cowboys at Washington -1

Home Favorites of -3.5 or less who are coming off of a road loss where they trailed after the third quarter are 0-10 ATS

They are 5-28-1 ATS in the last 34 instances


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  #279  
Old 10-25-2020, 12:19 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goldengreek View Post
With the Chiefs, HC Andy Reid has markedly overperformed in two situations (regular season only).

On Road: 38-19-1 ATS

In Division: 28-15-1 ATS

On the road inside the AFC West, Reid is 16-5 ATS (49.8% ROI).

Over his last 19 starts with a total of 54 or less, Patrick Mahomes is 17-2 ATS



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  #280  
Old 10-25-2020, 03:56 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goldengreek View Post
Teddy Fucking Covers

Bridgewater now 21-5 ATS (81%) as a dog

31-10 ATS (78%)
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  #281  
Old 10-26-2020, 11:23 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
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Belichek.

As an underdog, he is 23-11-2 ATS (31.8% ROI). Off a loss, he is 41-17 ATS (40.2% ROI).

And as an underdog off a loss, Belichick’s Pats are 8-0 ATS (99.6% ROI).

As an underdog off a loss, Belichick is 7-1 straight up.

Last edited by goldengreek; 10-26-2020 at 11:25 AM.
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  #282  
Old 10-26-2020, 11:25 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
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non-divisional opponents are 16-9 ATS (25.5% ROI) against the Raiders under head coach Jon Gruden, covering the spread by a margin of 6.46 points.


eams that failed to make the playoffs in the previous season are 14-8 ATS (25.5% ROI) against Gruden’s
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  #283  
Old 10-26-2020, 12:11 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
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Momentum in the NFL.....86.2% ATS System
.
Applied to SF yesterday & for tonight's #MNF game
.
If a Home team is off a Loss as Fav (like Rams) &
road team if off Win as Dog (like Bears) and the line is single digits....
.
Since 2010 the Home team is 4-25 ATS.....13.8% ATS
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  #284  
Old 10-26-2020, 03:44 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Road teams are now 58-46 ATS (56%) this season

Road dogs with a line move in their favor (think Lions + 3 to + 1) are now 33-18 ATS (65%)

Short road dogs + 6 or less are now 27-12 ATS (69%)
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  #285  
Old 10-26-2020, 03:48 PM
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Primetime unders are 15-6 (71%) this season.

Dogs are 15-6 ATS (71%) in primetime this season.
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  #286  
Old 10-26-2020, 07:12 PM
ChicagoKid ChicagoKid is offline
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Greek applies to 49ers this week as well correct?


Quote:
Originally Posted by goldengreek View Post
Momentum in the NFL.....86.2% ATS System
.
Applied to SF yesterday & for tonight's #MNF game
.
If a Home team is off a Loss as Fav (like Rams) &
road team if off Win as Dog (like Bears) and the line is single digits....
.
Since 2010 the Home team is 4-25 ATS.....13.8% ATS
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  #287  
Old 10-26-2020, 11:46 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChicagoKid View Post
Greek applies to 49ers this week as well correct?
No, Seattle was on the road

Applies to no teams this week
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  #288  
Old 10-27-2020, 01:14 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
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Out of their bye under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS. This includes an impressive 37-20 win over the Patriots last season as a 3-point underdog.

They're currently at -3.5 vs the Steelers on Sunday.
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  #289  
Old 10-27-2020, 03:55 PM
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The Seahawks are 15-2 (88.2%) SU / 12-4-1 (75%) ATS at home coming off a road loss since 2012







24-9-1 ATS (72.7%) as home favorites, coming off a loss, since 2005






The 49ers are 13-23-1 ATS vs Seattle since the 00 season (36.1%)


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  #290  
Old 10-28-2020, 10:11 PM
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The Under is 13-1 in the Browns last 14 games off throwing for 220+ yards in their previous game

Something else that might factor in ... Weather not looking great in Cleveland Sunday ... Mid 40s / light rain / mid 20 MPH wind gusts



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  #291  
Old 10-28-2020, 10:13 PM
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Home Dogs of more than 3 points with at least 8 days of rest are 1-19 ATS going back to Nov 2016

Active to fade the Dolphins and Giants this week ... likely the Jags next week



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  #292  
Old 10-28-2020, 10:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
Contrary to what one would assume, teams off a Bye week playing against a team with short rest Do Not do well ATS, going 15-33-1 ATS.

Active as a play against the Seahawks in Week 7




Seahawks lost outright, making teams off a Bye Week vs. a team on short rest move to 15-34-1 ATS.

This is active again in Week 8 as a play against the Dolphins (a little add-on bonus to above post #291)



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  #293  
Old 10-28-2020, 10:25 PM
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Conference games where totals fall between 49 & 56.5:

16-1-1 OU / 18-0 OU w/TSR as long as not at neutral site

Week 8 ... Detroit / Indy Over 50


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  #294  
Old 10-29-2020, 03:01 PM
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Above post should be Non-Conference games
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  #295  
Old 10-29-2020, 05:41 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
Bridgewater now 21-5 ATS (81%) as a dog

31-10 ATS (78%)

Dog trend doesn't apply tonight ... but ...


Bridgewater when the line moves against him:

All games: 16-4 (80%) ATS
1 or more points: 11-2 (85%) ATS
2 or more points: 5-0 ATS

Currently, Panthers moved from -3 to -1.5 vs. Falcons
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  #296  
Old 10-29-2020, 06:38 PM
roadking roadking is offline
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nyk amazing work as always
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  #297  
Old 10-29-2020, 07:57 PM
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Since the 1989 season, when a team is coming off a loss and are now playing as an Away Underdog of (+0.5) to (+3), their record is:

SU: 2-15 (11.8%)
ATS: 3-14 (17.6%)

Falcons (+1.5) are in this Fade spot against the Panthers



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  #298  
Old 10-29-2020, 11:35 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
Road teams are now 58-46 ATS (56%) this season

Road dogs with a line move in their favor (think Lions + 3 to + 1) are now 33-18 ATS (65%)

Short road dogs + 6 or less are now 27-12 ATS (69%)

Road teams are now 59-46 ATS this season

Road teams with line move in their favor now 34-18 ATS

Short road dogs +6 or less now 28-12 ATS this season
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  #299  
Old 10-30-2020, 01:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
Reminder ...



Use however you want ... I never recommend placing bets solely on quirky trends ... Maybe some will put you over when leaning on a certain side or total ... maybe play / fade when looking for small action junkie stuff.

Bump.



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  #300  
Old 10-30-2020, 03:59 PM
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Goes against posts #291 and #292 ... But ...


Tua Time

Since the start of last season, QBs making their first career starts are 11-4 ATS (2-1 ATS this season)

Additionally, Dolphins are 12-5 ATS in last 17 as a dog
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