Go Back   Sports Handicapping at cappersmall > >

NFL Football NFL Handicapping - Post your NFL picks, talk NFL betting, NFL odds or fantasy football.

Likes Likes:  1
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-12-2019, 12:59 PM
Wormy Pix Wormy Pix is offline
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2014
Posts: 574
Rewards: 3,113
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 21
Likes (Received): 123
Wormy Pix Playoff POW (Divisional)

I went into normal operating mode of posting on Sat, then I realized the 1st gms are Sat, moron! My apologies, I should’ve posted on Thurs, when I had already made up my mind for the most part. To recap WC weekend for me, IND hit in my POW & PHI also won SU. My leans were also LAC & DAL, so too bad I didn’t put that on my teaser instead of IND/HOU Over, which lost by 7 pts. Sigh. Otherwise it would’ve been a perfect weekend. I hope my Luck (pun intended) continues here.

Regular Season POW 12-5, Teasers 11-6, GOY 1-0, Overall 49-33-1 (55-35-1 undocumented).

Playoffs POW 1-0, Teasers 0-1, SB 0-0, Overall 2-1.

IND +5
is still the hottest team in the NFL. Winners of 10 of their last 11 gms, including 4 wins on the rd & back to back wins @ div rivals TEN & HOU the last 2 wks, & you would be hard pressed to find any team in history w/a similar run (NYG in ’08 comes to mind). There isn’t any 1 reason for their exceptional play either, which is a good thing. It starts (as always) in the trenches. LT Castonzo & C Kelly were starters last yr, however the development of LG Nelson & RT Smith (IND’s 1st 2 draft pix this yr) has made this the best oline in the POs. Not only are they talented, but they play w/a nastiness that only developed once RG Glowinski got starting time w/Smith. IND’s oline is in perfect sync & this will travel well @ 1 of the loudest stadiums in the league. They should also help negate 1 of the best pass rushes in the NFL, led by Houston, Ford & Jones. Marlon Mack & Ebron will also keep this KC “D” on its heels all gm. Along the front 7, IND has found success stopping the run & pressuring the QB w/Hunt & Autry in the middle, & uber talented LBs Leonard & Walker stuffing gaps & helping contain both Hill & Kelce. Their team discipline & speed should be effective against this Andy Reid misdirection “O” & scrambling QB. A lot is being said about weather (should snow) & how it will affect IND who play in a dome. I would argue that bad weather will heavily favor IND. Because of the grit both the oline & “D” front 7 are currently playing with, IND will undoubtedly win in the trenches on both sides of the ball. So it will take mental errors & TOs by IND for KC to win this gm. KC runs a finesse “O” that relies on timing & good throws/catches. A bad field & cold hands will affect KC much more than IND, who rely on play-action & running between the tackles. The loss of Kareem Hunt was huge. W/him, I believe KC beats both SEA & LAC. Williams has been effective, but he is a long way away from Hunt’s explosiveness. And the kicking gm? Who better to kick in snow than Adam Vinatieri? Much is being said about Andy Reid in POs, but I will mention them again. Reid has lost 7 of his last 8 PO gms, is 11-13 in his career (3rd most PO losses in NFL history), has 5 one & done exits, & became only the 3rd HC to lose a PO gm w/an 18+ pt lead, last yr vs TEN. To say that isn’t a factor here would be ignorant. Oh, I almost forgot to mention that Andrew Luck is their QB, who is one of the best in the NFL, on top of everything mentioned above.

IND 26
KC 23
5 Units
1 Unit ML +175

GL to all & comments are most welcome.
Likes Sarge844 liked this post
Reply With Quote
Old 01-12-2019, 01:00 PM
Wormy Pix Wormy Pix is offline
Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2014
Posts: 574
Rewards: 3,113
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 21
Likes (Received): 123
Honorable Mentions:

1 Unit LAC +4:
Rivers is 0-7 vs NE w/Brady @ the helm. I believe he breaks the schneid here. They were close last yr @ NE, where Gordon had an 87 yd TD run & Travis Benjamin allowed a safety for NE by running backwards into the endzone on a kickoff. The LAC have been rd warriors this season losing only @ LAR way back in Wk 3. The key here will be pressure on Brady, which is the way to beat NE. Bosa is hitting his stride after missing more than half the season, & LA’s blitzes have been well-timed & executed. If Brady starts to hear footsteps early, he has proven he can’t recover from that. Should be a tight one either way, which is where the 4 pts should also help.

1 Unit PHI/NOR Over 51: PHI’s secondary was making Trubisky last wk look like Drew Brees. Now facing the actual Drew Brees, this should be interesting. Meanwhile, NOR’s “D” has struggled all season & now PHI will have field turf & a controlled environment to match score for score w/one of the most prolific “O”s in the league. Revenge has to be in the minds of PHI after being drubbed 48-7 in Wk 11. Or, NOR can repeat that score, & I will be happy.

1 Unit Wormy Teaser

IND +18
LAR +6
LAC +17
NOR +5
Reply With Quote

ind, nfl, oline, play, pow

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

All times are GMT -5. The time now is 05:13 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Resources saved on this page: MySQL 15.79% Host: cappersmallweb1