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Old 04-20-2019, 12:02 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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NBA Playoffs ... Follow the sharp money

I read an article somewhere before the playoffs started (and now, of course, I can't find it again), that said the sharps generally do pretty well in the NBA playoffs. So if you can figure out which side of a game they are on, just bet it.
Sides only. No totals. I haven't bet any playoff games (never had any luck with NBA), but I deciced what the heck, I will follow it. It not that hard to do in the NBA because there is a lot of action on all their games and some "KNOWN SHARP" wouldn't be likely to come in 5 minutes before tip and plunk down a wheel barrow full and change the sharp side of the game.
So far, it is 14-7 ATS. it started out 8-2 the 1st 2 days, then hit a 1-4 patch, then reboundes last 2 days with 5-1.


I will post them from now on thru the end of the playoffs as I can.
today,

Phi-BK goes at 3PM ET, Den-Sa @5:30, Mil-Det @8pm, Hou-Ut @ 10:30, Will try to post them about 15-20 minutes before tip (Just to give the Sharps time to percolate a bit).

Of course, Like always, as soon as I start Posting these, you know they will go in the tank and start losing big time. But, we'll see...back later...
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Old 04-20-2019, 12:12 PM
woody woody is offline
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Sounds good Coach - looking forward to it
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Old 04-20-2019, 02:46 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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OK ...Brooklyn +3

back after 5
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Old 04-20-2019, 04:57 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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5:30 game

Denver +3'

back later.
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Old 04-20-2019, 07:04 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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Detroit +9'
Houston +2'
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Old 04-21-2019, 11:40 AM
Sarge844 Sarge844 is offline
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I got off the nets so I went 3-1.

Bol today. Thanks
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Old 04-21-2019, 11:59 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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2-2 yesterday … been doing every play. went back yesterday and looked at all the plays. The plays where there was reverse line movement (example. fav moves from -1 to -3; or dog moves from +4 to +2) these plays went 9-2.
When Line moves in the teams favor, they plays went 7-6. there were 2 games with no line movement, went 1-1. Yesterday there was only 1 play (Houston, which won) that had Reverse Line Movement). Denver's line didn't move, Brooklyn and Detroit's lines moved in their favor and they both still lost.
I will still list all the smart money plays, but annotate which ones have reverse line movement.


OK … first play today goes at 1:00 ET.


Boston -3 … Public & Pros all over this one. 3/4 bets & over 4/5 $$$$. opened at -1, not at -3 (RLM). Looks like Sharp Money on Celtics.
back later...this line opened at -1, went to 1'...2...2'...3...been on Celtics all the way...
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Old 04-21-2019, 03:19 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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golden state and the clippers. at about 3:05 81% bets were on GS, 83% $$$,
then suddenly, by 3:10 80% bets on GS, the $$$ were split 50-50.
the Line never moved. stayed 9' the whole time.
So, what was a Pros & joes game. is Now looks like a clippers contrarian play
with 20% of bets and 50% $$$. RLM. from 11 to +9'
walla, Clippers +9' is the smart money play.
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Old 04-21-2019, 04:05 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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OK... boston just won, covered and closed out the pacers. Clippers just tipped off against GS as 9' point dogs. I think I've learned something here today, but, I'm not sure what.
boston/pacers line opened at bos -1. steady climed for 2 days to 3' then fell back to 3 as the 83% of the bets and about 83% of $$$ piled up on boston and the books had a liability on boston. they needed Indiana to win. Then about 40 minutes before tip, they raised the line to 3' and BOOM. The big money, who were waiting for that hook, pounced. literally, within a matter of minutes, it went from a 83-17% $$$ liability on boston to 47%-53% pretty even $$$. but, these sharps didn't even care about the fact that boston was the better team, they just were waiting for the 3'. Did I interpret that accurately or am I just full of it?
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Old 04-21-2019, 04:44 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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GS/LAC opened GS -11 a couple days ago. This game was different, I think. for 2 days, it was steadily beat down as low as 8', before this morning back to 9.
I had deduced from some analysis I had read, that Clips might be the right side based on the fact that Lines of 8' & up are very rare on the road in the playoffs. Also, GS might not be trustworthy in this spot because of past history losing playoff road games and they might not be that focused because they've been hangin' out in LA all weekend. But, with about 30 minutes til tip, 80% bets and 83% $$$ on GS, yet the line had gone down 2' points. Hmmm. Then at 3:05 with the line still at 9', they sharps pounced. within 5 minutes, the dollars were actually in favor of the Clips 51-49. So, it looks like the same thing happened as the boston game, but, this time, maybe they were waiting for 10 or 10' and when they didn't get it, they got tired of waiting and hit it at 9'. I didn't intend for this thread to turn into all of this, but watching these games and how the $$$ change, intrigues me and I want to understand it better. Oh, well back later with my take on Raptors-magic
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Old 04-21-2019, 07:20 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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fell asleep. missed Toronto-Orlando...
didn't really have an opinion on it anyway.
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Old 04-21-2019, 07:32 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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okla city opened at -7' on 4/20...down to -6... this morning at 10am moved down to 5'...
54% bets and 55% $$$ on Portland...
not much there to sway my opinion either way...

2-0 today with winner on Boston -3 and LAC +9'...think I will put those in the bank and pass on the other two...see you guys tomorrow...
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Old 04-22-2019, 02:23 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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4/22
Milwaukee -12 @ DET ...8:00 PM ET

Line opened on 4/19 at -8' went 10' 11' now 12.
Only 4 RFs >= -10 in Playoff series G4 Last 15 years. All won by >= 10. All 4 covered.


Mil 7-0 SU, 6-0-1 ATS vs. Det (reg sn and playoffs). 3-0 in Playoff series winning by 24 per game.

As a wise old handicapper told me long ago, "Don't waste a lot of time trying to figure out when a bad team is gonna' win for ya'"

I think Mil -12 is the only play here. but, will wait for a while and see...
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Old 04-22-2019, 04:42 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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Just read where Playoff DD RFs are 3-1-1 since '05, the biggest being -13'. Mil now -13 up from open of -10'.

Here is one you can file away for future reference. Since '15-'16 season, Playoff games where Favs had even more $$$ than bets wagered on them are 97-50 ATS.
I have tracked this trend at 9-2 so far in first round. None of the 4 games yesterday qualified. so, Mil & hou both do.

As of 4:30 ET. both qualify. $$$ and bets are right at 80% or slightly both on both games. sharp money caused reverse line movement on Mil by 2' pts. (-10 to -13) and 1 pt on Hou (-2 to -3).


still a 3 1/2 hours til Mil tip and 6 hours til Hou tip. I took my nap early today, so I should be wide awake for both. Back Later...
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Old 04-22-2019, 05:15 PM
dsypula dsypula is offline
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How is it reverse line movement when both lines moved up, the same direction as the money bet?
This appears to be opposite of what I know to be reverse line movement
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Old 04-22-2019, 05:35 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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cocrrection: Hou line move 5 pts (+2 to -3)

also, the 97-50 angle I quoted above made no mention of Reverse Line Movement.
I checked, there were 4 games where Line moved in favor of the FAV. (-9 to -7).
they went 3-1 Ats so far. That makes it 12-3 so far in round 1.
don't expect will be as many of these in future rounds as competition gets more even.
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Old 04-22-2019, 06:35 PM
dsypula dsypula is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by southerncoach View Post
Just read where Playoff DD RFs are 3-1-1 since '05, the biggest being -13'. Mil now -13 up from open of -10'.

Here is one you can file away for future reference. Since '15-'16 season, Playoff games where Favs had even more $$$ than bets wagered on them are 97-50 ATS.
I have tracked this trend at 9-2 so far in first round. None of the 4 games yesterday qualified. so, Mil & hou both do.

As of 4:30 ET. both qualify. $$$ and bets are right at 80% or slightly both on both games. sharp money caused reverse line movement on Mil by 2' pts. (-10 to -13) and 1 pt on Hou (-2 to -3).


still a 3 1/2 hours til Mil tip and 6 hours til Hou tip. I took my nap early today, so I should be wide awake for both. Back Later...
Am I misreading something??
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Old 04-22-2019, 08:14 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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dyspula
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I don't understand. which part do you think you misread?
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Old 04-22-2019, 08:28 PM
dsypula dsypula is offline
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It looks to me that line moved in the direction of the $$$ wagered. I did not think that constitutes reverse line movement as you are stating. Quite the opposite. Again, unless I'm misunderstanding something.
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Old 04-22-2019, 08:50 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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dyspula
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sorry for the confusion. Reverse Line movement is when the Line moves in opposite direction of the betting percentages. Yes, you are right. Public money is almost always on Favorites. Most of the time Sharp money is on Dogs, but not always. As in the case of the first round of the NBA when you have the public and sharps on the same side of the game betting the favorite. Most of the time, the sharp money will move the line against the sharp money.
if more sharp $$$ are on the dog, the line will go down (+4 to +2). if the sharp $$$ ARE ON THE fAV, THE LINE WILL move up (-12 to -13). The line will almost always go against the side the sharp $$$ are on and since they are mostly on dogs, away from the #of Bets or Tickets percent. This is reverse line movement as I understand it. You are right, when they are both on the favorite as in both of today's NBA playoff games, the line moves are in the directionof the #of bets or tickets.
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Old 04-22-2019, 09:00 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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The way I remember it is this. The line is most always moved by the sharp (bigger bets) Money. The books are not going to give the sharp betters (who win more than they lose) an easier line to bet even more on. They move the line because the sharps have created a liability on one side and they want to attract bettors to the other side to even out the money. sometimes, the line will move in the opposite direction of the higher percentage of $$$ or not at all. in this case, I believe the books are ok with the liability because either a "Known" sharp bettor is on the other side and they are comfortable with carrying the liability because of that OR in some cases, (NBA PLAYOFFS not one of them usually, most have over 10,000 bets) OR there are not that many bets on the game. example. towson st vs Marist in college basketball. maybe less than 1,000 tickets.
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Old 04-22-2019, 09:05 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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sorry. I've written a book. but, bottom line, you are right. when the sharps and public are on the same side, as in the case of both NBA games today, by definition, there would be no REVERSE LINE MOVEMENT. MY BAD. I should have said the line move was against the sharp money as it almost always will be, except in the case I outlined above.
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Old 04-22-2019, 09:35 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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ok. MILW down by 6 at half. thought about taking the -11 for 2H. but decided against it.
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Old 04-22-2019, 09:46 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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Hou down to -2'. Just now the sharps hit the other side of this game. $$$ now lower than the bets. I was thinking earlier that a 5 point line move is a lot. Especially, considering Hou only won by 3 LG. Not gonna' bet this game. They won by 20 and 32 at home. Late money by sharps done scared me plum off this one...

back tomorrow...
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Old 04-22-2019, 10:49 PM
dsypula dsypula is offline
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Thanks man.... Continued good luck. Enjoy the write-ups.
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