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  #226  
Old 06-07-2019, 05:27 PM
secondbase secondbase is offline
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I think its under as well
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  #227  
Old 06-07-2019, 06:16 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is online now
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1 hour til tip:
stil only about 40% of the bets cast on this game. Meaning this last hour up until tip is gonna be big. Toronto 45% bets, 53% of $$ so far, Line just went from 4' to 5. thinking that will change.

total opened at 216. went to 215'...now 215. Majority of Public and $$ (2/3rds of both) on the OVER. but there is 1 pt of Reverse Line Movement toward the UNDER.
back before 7.
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  #228  
Old 06-07-2019, 06:22 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is online now
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40% bets on TOR on ML +180, 60% of $$ on them to win SU as well. Looks like Sharp money on TOR ML so far.

GSW -220 to win SU. down from -250.
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  #229  
Old 06-07-2019, 06:26 PM
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it is 1:30 til tip. Not 1 hour as I posted before. got my time zones mixed up.
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  #230  
Old 06-07-2019, 06:45 PM
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some pretty big $$ hitting GSW now. just flipped $$% from 51% on tor to 57% on GSW. still < than half the bets in so far, I think. 1:15 til tip.
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  #231  
Old 06-07-2019, 06:48 PM
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I think this last sharp $$ hitting, is what moved the line to -5. The Line move showed up immediately, the $$ from the Books have a delay sometimes.
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  #232  
Old 06-07-2019, 06:52 PM
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total down to 214' now. As of right now, Total would be a Contrarian play on the Under.
only 35% bets on UNDER, almost 40% $$. Reverse Line move of point and a half toward the under (216 to 214')
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  #233  
Old 06-07-2019, 07:09 PM
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50 minutes til tip. total just went back to 215.
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  #234  
Old 06-07-2019, 07:18 PM
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That angle I posted at start of playoffs where you bet the FAV is $$ > bets on them, think it is 104-53 now. Hasn't had plays in later rounds. Was 21-5 1st 2 rounds.

If nothing changes GSW -5, $$ almost 60% > Bets 55% will qualify under this angle.

42 Mins til tip.
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  #235  
Old 06-07-2019, 07:45 PM
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15 minutes til tip …nothing has changed... It may, looks like this one might get hit heavy right before tipoff. About half the # of bets I was expecting, so far.

I am on GSW -5 based on the angle listed above...

Total back to 214' now. Sharps playing their little half pt. back & forth game now.

GL
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  #236  
Old 06-08-2019, 12:01 AM
savage1 savage1 is offline
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Posted in error.
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  #237  
Old 06-08-2019, 08:14 AM
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Thanks for all the updates keep them coming
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  #238  
Old 06-08-2019, 10:29 AM
kane kane is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kane View Post
Tonight's total is 215, sharps played Under 216.5 and 216
The sharps cash again
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  #239  
Old 06-09-2019, 03:34 PM
kane kane is offline
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There was a move today to GS and the Over, not sure if this is sharp or possibly Durant related, apparently there's a chance he'll be active tomorrow
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  #240  
Old 06-10-2019, 10:34 AM
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Quote:
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There was a move today to GS and the Over, not sure if this is sharp or possibly Durant related, apparently there's a chance he'll be active tomorrow
Durant,,,, game time decision.
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  #241  
Old 06-10-2019, 10:40 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is online now
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G5, 6/10 .. 8:00 PM GSW @ Tor (-1')

Line opened at Tor -2'...Immediately to 3, soon thereafter 3'...back down to 2' and 2 (on news that Durant would practice) … Last night dropped to -1'...

Trends.
Gsw is 1-5 (0-2 reg sn, 1-3 Post sn) vs. Tor in 2019. 2-4 ATS in those games.

for 1st time in those 6 meetings in G4, GSW won 1Q and 1H vs. Tor.
Since '05, In G5, Teams on at least 2G Losing Streak are 3-17 SU, 10-10 ATS as dogs of 8.6 avg spread.

In G1-G5 of playoff series, GSW 48-44 ATS covering by less than 1 pt / g.

Under Kerr, Last 5 NBA Finals, GSW is 8-9 SU & ATS if NO Durant. With Durant, 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS . Of course, the big question is will Durant be 80%, 90% coming off injury. And how rusty and out of shape will he be.

G4 GSW 8-27 on 3s (29.6%). since 2016, GSW 10 SU after shooting < 30% on 3s, winning by 15 PPG. 4-0 on road winning by 19.

so far the bets have been pretty close to even. $$ however, have been about 7 in 10 on Raptors. about 9 hours til tip.

.

Last edited by southerncoach; 06-10-2019 at 10:41 AM. Reason: correction
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  #242  
Old 06-10-2019, 03:01 PM
kane kane is offline
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Most places have the game at a pick or Tor -1, the total has also gone up, right now it's 215, I have to think these moves are based on the fact that Durant is playing. I just took the Raptors at a pick, I don't think Durant will make a difference, missing a month is a lot of time for an athlete. I think Toronto wins handily
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  #243  
Old 06-10-2019, 06:45 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is online now
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Side:
from about 3:30 to 6 PM today Line moved a full 2 points toward GSW, from +1 to -1. Looks like this based on news that Durant has been activated and will probably start.
The bets are in favor of GSW about 55%. Sharps don't appear to be buying in as $$% down from 70& to just over 65%.


Total:

from 9 am until about 5:30, total went from 214 up to 215'. Over 70% bets & dollars on Over.


1:15 til tip
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  #244  
Old 06-10-2019, 06:51 PM
secondbase secondbase is offline
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thanks coach
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  #245  
Old 06-10-2019, 07:38 PM
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ok.. total is up to 216 now. over 70% bets & $$ still. Looks like most people on over.

Nothing has changed on side. Less than half bets on Toronto, but, 2/3 of $$.
Line has moved opposite however, largely because of Durant news, I think.

most of the sharp money is on Toronto +1. Pros and Joes on Over 216.
Gonna' pass on this one. going to hope for G6 and a clearer, more settled situation with Durant.

GL
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  #246  
Old 06-11-2019, 12:09 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is online now
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good game. Durant came out and played like he'd never been hurt, I thought. And the Warriors needed every one of his 11 points to win by one.
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