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  #151  
Old 05-18-2019, 07:41 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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Portland -2' is the Play. I will play it (Fave, moe $$ than bets).
2 in 3 $$ are now on Portland. little over 50% of bets.

GL
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  #152  
Old 05-19-2019, 08:45 AM
secondbase secondbase is online now
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not sure if its g state is too good or Portland just doesn't know how to win
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  #153  
Old 05-19-2019, 11:47 AM
kane kane is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by secondbase View Post
not sure if its g state is too good or Portland just doesn't know how to win
GS can turn it up a notch whenever they want, and for whatever reason Lillard hasn't played like he did against OKC and Denver
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  #154  
Old 05-19-2019, 01:09 PM
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2B & Kane:
thx for input. I think you are both right. IF GSW has their heads on straight, they can win & cover against anyone. I said earlier, I thought they maybe could close out Portland in 4 on the road. My question now is does Portland feel they have any chance of winning 4 straight. If they don't, and why would they, They will be a HD now and if GS gets up on them at any point, I think it will show up in their effort in G4.
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  #155  
Old 05-19-2019, 01:54 PM
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Anyway, on to Mil @ Tor.

5/19 G3 7:00 PM, Milwaukee @ Toronto (-2) … Opened -2' … now down to -2...
Trends:

Toronto comes Home down 0-2 at off of 22 Pt loss in G2.

**Pllayoffs: Since 05, HF who lost LG by DD is 115-81 ATS 59%

And they are Unpopular FAVS of -2.
**Playoffs: since 05, FAVS receiving only 24% to 44% of spread Tickets are 145-111 57%.

Bucks on 10-1 ATs run in '19 Playoffs, winning by 7.1/g.

Since 05, Teams with >=70% win rate and avg score margin of >= 10 pts/g in L10 Games and listed as DOGS are 5-13 ATS 27.8%.

Sharps aren't buying in. Majority of bets & money on Milwaukee +2, so far. Looks like Pros are joining with the public at almost 60% of bets and 2/3rds of $$ on Bucks after beating Raptors by 22 in G2.
Bucks 8-4 SU & 9-3 ATS as DOGS Reg Sn.

3 of those wins vs Raptors.

Won 105-92 as +2' RD, Won 104-99 as +4' RD, Won 123-108 as +2 HD.

Teams Down 0-2 @ Home, usually come out in G3 with Max Effort as this next trend indicates.

Since '05, G3 Home Teams, Down 0-2 are 79-38 1H Spread. And a RED HOT 28-6 over Last 4 seasons.
These same teams are an impressive 41-14 1HML as well, 19-9 as DOGS, 22-5 as FAVS.
I believe the Blazers were in the same spot vs GSW Sat, and won both of the above bets.
I apologize for not seeing this in time to cash those.
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  #156  
Old 05-19-2019, 05:09 PM
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Smile Portland doesn't know how to win !

Quote:
Originally Posted by secondbase View Post
not sure if its g state is too good or Portland just doesn't know how to win
For sure it's: Portland doesn't know how to win! They play well in short stretches, but ultimately it's like both Golden State & Portland know the Blazers are going to fold. Very frustrating to watch if you're a Blazers fan, but G.S.'s been there so many times before in these situations that Portland didn't stand a chance for the series. G.S. wraps it up tomorrow night in four (4-0)!

Yellow Bird
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  #157  
Old 05-19-2019, 05:37 PM
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with about 20 minutes til tipoff, the bets & money have changed remarkably.
bets now 50-50. sharp money pretty evenly divided between both teams. Milwaukee has a slight $$ advantage of 54%.

going with Mil +2' following the sharp $$$.
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  #158  
Old 05-19-2019, 10:45 PM
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The side was a loser. hope everyone took Tor on 1H spread & 1HML. they both won. The blazers too. I took Tor -3 on 1H Spread. You can tell the House is trying to reign in this 1H side trend (when Game Line is -2', 1H Line -3,bigger than full game). I didn't like 1H ML. didn't want to lay -178.
So far, this round smart $$ has been on 5 Dogs (1-4), 1 Fav (0-1).


I learned something today. At about 2PM Bets 60%, $$ 67% on Milwaukee. From 2 to tipoff, it steadily went down. Even though it ended up at 50% bets, 52% $$, the Late sharp bets and money appeared to be gravitating toward Toronto. I will try to chart that from here on out. In a game like this one, that can be telling.
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  #159  
Old 05-20-2019, 01:32 AM
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5/20 G4 9:00 PM … GSW (-3') @ Port …. Opened @ -3 ...Now -3'

Trends:

Mon. Nite, 9th Chance to Sweep for GSW (Kerr). GSW 5-3 SU & ATS in those.

GSW on 5G Win Streak.
** Since '05, Teams on 5G Win Streak, G4, Chance to Sweep are 26-11 SU & 20-15 ATS.
(Warriors 4-2 SU & ATS in this spot).

Teams down 0-3 in G4 are only 29-25 ATS, HOWEVER,

PORT (Stotts), @ Home, after Losing @ Home are 43-28 ATS 60.6% vs. 1H Spread


Portland blew 13 pt Lead in G3 to be down 0-3.

**Since 05, Teams down 0-3 are 21-41 SU & 25-34 ATS.
Very Early, almost 2/3 of Bets & 2/3 of $$ on GSW.
I will watch this...
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  #160  
Old 05-20-2019, 09:22 AM
kane kane is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yellow bird View Post
For sure it's: Portland doesn't know how to win! They play well in short stretches, but ultimately it's like both Golden State & Portland know the Blazers are going to fold. Very frustrating to watch if you're a Blazers fan, but G.S.'s been there so many times before in these situations that Portland didn't stand a chance for the series. G.S. wraps it up tomorrow night in four (4-0)!

Yellow Bird
I disagree with your opinion that Portland doesn't know how to win. They knew how to win against OKC, and they went on the road and won a game 7 in Denver, which is something road teams rarely do, the percentage of road teams that win a game 7 on the road is very low. Losing to GS doesn't mean they don't know how to win, it means they're losing to maybe one of the best teams ever assembled, everyone loses to GS, it isn't just Portland. It's also come out that Damion Lillard has been playing with a separated rib, which would explain his poor play in the series. Let's be honest, before the series started Portland had a slim chance of winning anyway, add in their best player playing hurt, and the fact they're on the verge of getting swept isn't a surprise.
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  #161  
Old 05-20-2019, 05:01 PM
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The sharps are on Portland tonight, some books opened GS -3 and some opened GS -3.5, right now the majority of books are using GS -2.5. With the public backing the Warriors, this game is shaping up as a Pros vs Joes, still hours to go until tip, but as of now the smart money is on the dog
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  #162  
Old 05-20-2019, 05:37 PM
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about 20 minutes til tip. 60+% bets on GSW, 60+% $$ on them too. Obviously sharp money on both sides. Since Noon, line has moved a full point from -3' to -2'. Could be a reaction to Oguodala injury.

GSW 10-4 SU & ATS in close out opportunities (whether sweep or not).

In the last 2 comeback wins where, after being down DD, they came back to win, Oguodala was a big part of the defensive efforts that held Port to 46 & 33 in 2nd half in those games. He Is questionable tonight. If he unable to play, That concerns me.

Sharp money seems to be solidly on the Under @ 219.

Surprisingly low # of tickets on this game, I'm seeing. Way down for a Conference Chmpshp game. I think I will be sitting this one out as well. Passing tonight. GL
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  #163  
Old 05-20-2019, 07:47 PM
kane kane is offline
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Most places are now using GS -2, and Bookmaker is using 1.5, a half point of that move was Iggy being out, but the sharps are definitely on Portland
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  #164  
Old 05-20-2019, 11:27 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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boy, I screwed up. I thought the game was 6PM. it was 8PM CST. In the last 2 hours, bets went to 40% Portland, but 48% $$. Definitely a contrarian sharp play on Portland.
Even though the line opened at -3 and went as high as 4 on 5/19, at about 9 am is when they raise the limits from 1,000 per bet to way on up. Then the big boys start playing. About 12:30 on 5/20 it went down to -3. then 5:30 - 6:30 PM settled at -2'. bets and $$ didn't move much. both stayed at > 60% on GSW. Then about 10 minutes before tip it went to -2 and the $$ % on Portland jumped from 33% to 48%

Golden State really missed Oguodala, I think.
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  #165  
Old 05-21-2019, 08:24 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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5/21 8:30 PM Mil -2' @ Tor. ...Line opened MIl -1 ...now Mil -2'

Trends. Not much, but 1 Really strong one

Tor DOG 1st time in playoffs. Reg Sn: 1-2 SU & ATS vs. MIL.


BUCKS Off Loss.. This Season 22-1 SU (15 Pt. Differential), 19-4 ATS (7.2 Pt. DIFF). It gets better …

Mil Off Loss ON ROAD, 10-1 SU & ATS This Season.


MIL #1 in DEF RATING this season. 104.9 Pt/100 Poss. Allowed 118 to TOR LG (in 2 OTs). At end of regulation Tor had only 96.


Offensively, bucks top 3 scorere (Antetokounmpo, Middleton, Bledsoe) who avg 61.9 PPG. only scored 32 LG and Bucks only shot 14-44 3s. Still took 2 OTs for Raptors to put'em away...


Very early. 7/10 bets on Bucks and 4/5 $$ has moved early line from -1 to -2'.
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  #166  
Old 05-21-2019, 07:14 PM
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30 minutes before tip... Line went to Mil -3 at around 10:15 am and has stayed put at that number.

bets have remained constant at right around 70% of tickets on Milwaukee.
$$ have jumped around between 65 and 75% on Milwaukee.

On this game, I am going with Bucks -3 based on the following.
10-1 Road covers off LG Loss. Pretty strong trend.
And their poor shooting game last time out. Thnk Antetokounmpo and Co. rebound from LG poor performances and Bucks 3s % improves this game.

GL
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  #167  
Old 05-21-2019, 07:19 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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Based on the bets 30& and $$ 35%, the raptors are the contrarian sharp play.
I know this is a follow the sharp money thread, so I will score this game as a play on Portland even though I am taking the other side.
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  #168  
Old 05-21-2019, 09:44 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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Boy, I am a SSF. (STRAIGHT SQUARE FADE). I leave my true love, following the sharp $$ for some HARLOT TREND and end up on the wrong side of a blowout.

Why do I keep having to learn this lesson over and over.
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  #169  
Old 05-22-2019, 06:13 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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here is what happened yesterday. all day on 5/21 bets around 70%, (Joes & Pros, right)
$$ between 65 & 70% on BUCKS. about 30% bets on TOR. 25%-30%. So i'm guessing, Public on MIL, Sharp money on both sides. but, I don't really know, since I can't see actually $$ bet, only %, about 10:15 Line moved to -3 bucks & stayed.

so, about 7, 30 minutes before tip, I check, it's still like that. I can't tell. so should have passed on it. But, that 10-1 Trend kept naggin' at me. So I pulled the trigger on Mil -3.
Because of the trend and the line move.

but, about 7:20, I see a flood of bets have come in and MIL still 70% bets, 65% $$, TOR 30% bets 35% $$, making Tor a classic contrarian $ > bets play.

Then, 20 minutes after tip off, I check back and bets are 66, $$ are 65 MIL, 34 & 35 on Toronto.

all right 2 things, Sometimes sharps will wait until the last minute to hit a game and if you are following the money, you just need to pass it. And occasionally, they will hit it 5 min or less. The books don't transmit their data instantaneously, some may, others don't.

so those games you may be on wrong side of the game from the sharp money but, the fortunately, they don't always win. (No such thing as a LOCK, right). that's just a couple things that are going to happen from time to time.
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  #170  
Old 05-22-2019, 10:51 PM
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5/23 G5 8;30 PM ...Tor @ MIL (-7)

Line opened at -7 ...down to -6' at some books...
Trends:
Bucks Lost G4 by 18. Previous DD Losses This Sn. 6-0 ATS (Cov by 12.8 PPG)

Playoffs:Conf & NBA Finals HFs off DD Loss 25-11 ATS

Playoffs: G5 HFs (Lost G3 & G4) 17-14 ATS.

IN March, Bucks Lost Back to Back (only time this sn). Next as 10 pt HF, beat Pacers 117-98.

Since 05, Dogs off Back to Back Wins are 142-184 ATS (43.6%). In G5-7 these same teams are 31-48 ATS (39.2%)

G5 HFs since 2015 are 15-2 on 1 Half ML. Mil is currently -235
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  #171  
Old 05-23-2019, 09:31 AM
kane kane is offline
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Tonight's total is down to 216, and the sharper books are using 215.5, sharp money has come in on the under, it's still very early but it looks like the pros like the under tonight
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  #172  
Old 05-23-2019, 11:36 AM
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The total is now down to 215, the sharps are hammering the under, there could be some buyback, but the under is absolutely the sharp play tonight
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  #173  
Old 05-23-2019, 04:08 PM
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Let’s get the under
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  #174  
Old 05-23-2019, 04:26 PM
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The total keeps dropping, now at 214.5
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Old 05-23-2019, 06:57 PM
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Back up to 215.5
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