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  #201  
Old 05-30-2019, 09:43 AM
kane kane is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kane View Post
Early sharp money also came in on Toronto, they went from a 1 point dog to a 1 point favorite, we'll see where the line and total go closer to game time
Most places still using Toronto -1, but the sharper books are dealing Toronto -1.5. With the public solidly behind GS, as of now the smart money is on the Raptors, still a long way till tip
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  #202  
Old 05-30-2019, 06:20 PM
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Three hours till tip and the sharp money is still on Toronto and the under, the public is backing GS and the over, but the line has moved in the other direction, same with the total. Not sure If I'll be able to post again before game time.
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  #203  
Old 05-30-2019, 07:13 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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2 hours til tip now. the bets still a shade below 70% and $$ still 2 of 3 on GSW.
However, $$ > bets on Toronto now. That coupled with the Reverse Line Movement toward Toronto (+1' to -1) makes Tor a classic contrarian play.

Same with the Under. Only 40% TICKETS ON Tor, but half the $$. and Reverse Line Movement on Total as well (215 down to 213).

back Later.

Last edited by southerncoach; 05-30-2019 at 07:13 PM. Reason: correction
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  #204  
Old 05-30-2019, 07:21 PM
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Trends:

Have read experts think Raptors maybe a little tight & nervous in G1 1H. GSW -195 1
Q and +105 1H maybe good.

NBA FINALS:Since 04, 1H UNDER is 43-33 & 9-5 in G1s
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  #205  
Old 05-30-2019, 07:25 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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NBA FINALS: Since 05, teams >50% Tickets, are 34-48.

Note: Toronto has started slowly in 2019 playoff series. Lost G1s to ORL & MIL. Lost G2s to PHIL & MIL. But, made adjustments to win all 3.
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  #206  
Old 05-30-2019, 08:38 PM
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Line just moved to back to Tor -1' (3 pt move toward TOR) , 1 in 3 bets & almost 40% $$ on Tor now.
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  #207  
Old 05-30-2019, 08:41 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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20 minutes til tip. I may lose doing this, but, here's what i'm on tonite:

Tor -1' for Game
Under 213 (-115)
GSW +102 1Q ML
GSW +120 1H ML
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  #208  
Old 05-30-2019, 09:02 PM
kane kane is offline
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The line is now Toronto -1.5 some places using -2, and the total is 212.5, the sharps definitely on the Raptors and Under
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  #209  
Old 05-30-2019, 11:53 PM
kane kane is offline
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Sharps win the side, lose the total
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  #210  
Old 05-31-2019, 06:09 PM
kane kane is offline
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The early money has come in on Toronto in game 2, and the sharps are pounding Toronto on the adjusted series price. The adjusted series price opened GS -155, most places are now using a pick 'em
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  #211  
Old 06-01-2019, 07:35 PM
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6/2 G2 8:00 PM … GSW @ TOR (-2) … Line opened GS -1 … Now Tor -2
Trends:

GS after Playoff Loss: IN 12 PlAYOFF LOSSES, Next Game, GSW 9-2 SU on 1HML, 10-2 on 1H Spread, outscoring Opps by 8.8 PPG.
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  #212  
Old 06-02-2019, 11:18 AM
kane kane is offline
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Some Under money came in today, total down to 213 at the sharper books, will update later
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  #213  
Old 06-02-2019, 03:02 PM
kane kane is offline
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Some books are now using Toronto -2.5, still 5 hours till tip, but as of now the Raptors are the sharp side
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  #214  
Old 06-02-2019, 06:19 PM
secondbase secondbase is offline
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yikes . got to say I don't like seeing that 2.5
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  #215  
Old 06-02-2019, 07:15 PM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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1 hour before tip.
on 5/30 Line opened GSW -1. Immediately moved 2' pts to TOR -1' where it pretty much stayed until 5/31 10 am. flirted with Tor -2 and on 5/31 settled on Tor -2 where it stayed until about 20 minutes ago, when it briefly went to 2', now appears to be back to -2.

what is interesting here is the bets & $$. bets & $$ mostly around 70%, indicating the sharp $$ joining the Public on GSW. early today the $$ started to climb to about 80%. With $ > bets on GSW would indicate sharp money on GSW. Howeve, 3 pt Reverse Line movement against the Public AND SHARP $$ is unusual. That kind of line move usually indicates well respected $$ on the other side. G1 was Highly wagered on affair and this one still has plenty more wagers to come in, i'm sure.

will watch it and update about 15 minutes til tip.
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  #216  
Old 06-02-2019, 07:38 PM
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a lot more bets have hit this game and the Bets & $$ haven't moved.

Sharp $$ would appear to be on Tor. However, 3 pt Line move away from what are sharp $$ makes me think there are sharp $$ on Tor and more respected $$, possibly from known bettors that makes the books feel comfortable holding a liability on GSW.

Total seems similar. above 70% on bets & $$. Yet line has moved from 215' to 213.
a lot of sharp $$ on over, but, Line moving away from it makes me wary of it..

GSW on 1h ML or 1h Spread may be the way to go on this one.

I am passing on this one. GL
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  #217  
Old 06-03-2019, 06:47 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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I screwed up above post. 'sharps appear to be on GW' is what it should have said. GS Won and the Under Won or Pushed depending on line you got. A Full 1/3 of the total bets at the books I can see came in the last 20 minutes since I posted. (Most of it on Toronto).
the numbers were still changing up to 30 minutes past tip, due to the transmitting delay from the books to the site. you just have to lock in your play at 10 to 15 minutes before tip and get on with it if you're gonna follow the smart money.
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  #218  
Old 06-03-2019, 08:14 AM
secondbase secondbase is offline
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I didn't like seeing that 2.5 but gladly took it

I enjoy reading all this info
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  #219  
Old 06-03-2019, 06:34 PM
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2B:
Hope you and some others are getting some useful information out of these postings.
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  #220  
Old 06-05-2019, 11:37 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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6/5 G3 9:00 PM Tor @ GSW (-4') … opened -5'.

Trends:

Over 65% of betting tickets are on Tor. 18 times under Kerr has the game tipped off with Gsw having < 50% of tickets. In those games GSW is 18-0 SU & 15-3 ATS. Covering by 8.6 PPG.

Warriors trailed at Half in G1 & G2 to Raptors. Last 12 times that has happened, including those 2 games, GSW is 11-0-1 on the 2H ML & 8-3-1 against 2H Spread.

GSW coming off a game when they had 30+ assists. They have far outdistanced themselves from the rest of the League in 30+ assist games (25) next closest team has (4). Since 2014-15 under Kerr, after a 30+ playoff assist game, they are 24-3 SU and 18-9 ATS.

Right now GSW is a Contrarian Play with only 35% bets & More $$ than bets. I am sure that will change in the next 9 and half hours. Back Later
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  #221  
Old 06-05-2019, 05:28 PM
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indeed .these have a definite factor
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  #222  
Old 06-06-2019, 04:24 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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My internet and power was out and they didn't get it fixed until just now.
Missed checking in on the $$ and bets. Just did and …Toronto had almost 60% of Bets and 60% of $$. Majority of the $$ were on Toronto. Sorry I missed it, Thompson & Durant both out just too much to overcome.
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  #223  
Old 06-06-2019, 08:25 AM
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Sometimes the public gets it right, and/or like last night, one just has to use some commons sense and figure that GS just isn't the same without two key players, and that Toronto are far from the Washington Generals and/or mere sparring partners for the Warriors I don't cared where the game is being played!!
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  #224  
Old 06-07-2019, 03:12 AM
southerncoach southerncoach is offline
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6/7 8:00 PM G4 Toronto @ GSW (-4') ...opened -5' … now -4'

Klay Thompson Likely will be back. Real good news for GSW.

Trends:
Warriors are 41-14 Su after losing by DD under Kerr.

Warriors allowed 123 pts to Tor in G3. The 4th time in 2019 Playoffs they have allowed 120+ by an Opponent. Warriors only allowed 120+ in 3 Games total In 2017 & 2018 Playoffs.

Under Kerr, Warriors have held Opps to 106 PPG avg after allowing 120+. Only 12 of 63 Opponents have scored 120+ on GSW in consecutive games. GSW 49-14 SU after allowing 120+. They are 10-3 in Playoffs after allowing 120+.

Tor scored 120+, shot 40% on 3s & had 30 assists in G3. Only 2nd time Under Kerr, that has happened in 102 Playoff Games. Both occurred in the 2019 Playoffs. Once in 1st round vs Clippers and in G3 vs Tor.

Under Kerr, GSW 9-1-1 vs 1H Spread & 10-1 1H ML after a PLAYOFF Loss, beating Opps by 8.6 PPG.

With 20 hours til tip, Tor over 60% bets & $$. Sure that will change before tip.
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  #225  
Old 06-07-2019, 04:13 PM
kane kane is offline
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Tonight's total is 215, sharps played Under 216.5 and 216
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