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Old 05-23-2019, 10:01 AM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Prop play for tonight

Not a big fan of the sport, so I've played a couple of prop bets to try and keep it interesting.
Been doing okay, head above water anyway, and I keep meaning to share the plays here, to tail or fade based on if you like my reasoning or not, but keep forgetting. Remembered today.

Tonight I bought Mirotic Ov 11' points, -105.

I used this in the last two games, both rd games.
The # was the same in both buys: 10'

On 5/19 he landed on 10.
I missed by a hook.
But he had enough minutes played (29) and shot opportunities so that I had a solid shot at hitting the Over.
Unfortunately, he went 3-11 FG and 1-7 3PT. That's fourteen missed shots, and I only needed one of them.

Plenty of lost opportunity there, so I bought it the next night, for a little more $ than I played the previous game, unusual for me because I am a stickler for not varying unit amounts. But I figured, "Hey, all those missed shots? He should be able to shoot a little better tonight, right?"

Next game he hits his first two shots, a 2 and a 3.
I have 5 points in the first five minutes of the first quarter. Halfway to 10' already and I'm feeling pretty good.
But, it's b-ball, so ya never know, and in any sport never count your chickens, right? (I described in another thread how I had Durant Ov 30' the night he had a scoreless first half. Thought I was screwed, but with 26 pts scored and under a minute left, Houston kept fouling him and he hit a bunch of FT's to give me an improbable win.)

Mirotic goes on to miss a bunch of shots but finishes with 11 pts.
This time I hit by a hook.
But his line was still poor, 4-10 FG, 2-8 3PT, 1-2 FT, so I said, "The # for the next game will be higher, because he's at home in Milwaukee, but if they hang an 11', only one pt higher, I'm buying." They did, so I bought it.

Thinking he's good for at least 1-2 more buckets in this spot.
Last two, at home vs Raptors, he scored 13 and 15.
Looking for similar tonight.

Good luck with your plays . . .
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Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 05-23-2019 at 10:04 AM.
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Old 05-23-2019, 04:08 PM
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Old 05-23-2019, 06:46 PM
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Good luck looks solid
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Old 05-23-2019, 09:03 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Thanks for the replies, guys.

Something like 0-7 first half, zero pts scored.

But, like I said above, I needed Over 30' with Durant and he had zero at halftime, still won that one, so maybe ...
No.

I'll be back to try and recoup it with my next buy.
Apologies if anyone bought in because of me tonight.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 05-23-2019 at 09:04 PM.
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Old 05-24-2019, 11:30 AM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Recap: Blindfold me, stick a cigarette in my mouth, and do what must be done.

NBA record: 0-1

Here's a look at my last pick, and some thoughts on the next one.
Why look at the last pick?
"Those who don't learn from History . . ." blah, blah, blah.

Most bettors will study a team's history, record, stats, tendencies, etc, when looking to bet on them,
but spend zero time looking at their own history.
Often there's nothing there, but sometimes you see something that can use to your advantage in future plays.

I had MilaJovovich over 11' pts last night and he scored zero.

Because of his 0-7 start, he was benched after the first quarter.

He played only 9 minutes, after averaging approx 22 min this post-season.
Can we use this info going into game 6 in Toronto?

If it's going to be a prolonged stay in the coaches' doghouse (and after going 7/25 FG & 3/18 3PT for 10/43 overall in his last three games it's deserved) the Under on his pt total might be a good play, depending on what # the oddsmakers hang.
I'd make it 8', but if they offer 9' I'll consider buying the Under.
If they're slacking and don't factor in reduced minutes along with his recent form, and they hang 10' again, I'll definitely be on the Under.

But reduced minutes is no sure thing. Even though he shot poorly for the third straight game, the Bucks were up by 10 in Q1. The following three quarters without him they got outscored 83-67, so benching him didn't help their cause either.

And it might be just a case of the HC doing a typical motivational thing, bench him, make him think about it, then put him back in to see if there's any improvement.

Lots to think about.
Back with another pick if I buy anything next game.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 05-24-2019 at 11:33 AM.
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Old 05-25-2019, 12:56 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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A player's total points, nine recent games:
11, 10, 15, 13, 10, 9, 13, 9, 13.

The books offer 7' tonight.

Which way are you betting?

Easy call, right?

But those stats are nine of his last ten games. One game is missing, where he scored zero.
If that zero was somewhere in the middle of those other games, still an easy call on the Over 7'. But, it was his last game.

What are you going to do?

They hung a 7' on Mirotik.
Like I said, if I caught them slacking and they put up 10' again, I would take the Under.
At 9', maybe the same.
I made the # 8', would have probably passed at that #.

But 7'?
Did they overcompensate?
Is the Over worth a look?

He's not going to start, that much seems certain.
He'll get minutes, and it comes down to how he shoots - if he hits, he'll get some playing time.
If not, back to the bench.

Bucks in lose or go home spot. I read up as much as I can, trying to get a feel for what the coach is thinking, lineup-wise, playing time-wise. The lack of playing time last game was not an injury thing, it was a doghouse thing.
But with him on the bench, they still lost.

Looking at those game-by-game stats from his recent form makes Over that 7' tempting. I'm playing something, not sure what, this or another player prop. Will be back later after I check a few more things and make a decision.

Good luck to the Mall with your plays today . . .

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 05-25-2019 at 01:06 PM.
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Old 05-25-2019, 06:31 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Line dropped, 6' now.

Milwaukee can't win without better production from their role players/non-starters.
That means, in part, Mirotik.
And I like Milwaukee tonight, so...

But, to play the Over 6' means betting on a guy who might be benched. I think he'll get in, problem is if he misses his first two shots he may be done for the night.

His recent play has been not so much "Fear the Deer" as "Deer Caught in Headlights" but I'm going to take a chance he crosses safely and doesn't become road kill, and take me down with him.

I'm buying the Over.

Also took team total Over 106.
After watching Toronto win the last series I thought they looked too dependent on Leonard. I remember one of the announcers in the final game commenting how they looked tentative, almost scared to shoot, like four guys looking for one guy to get it done. I thought that would cost them against Milwaukee's defense. They've played well, but if they're the better team, how come they're only laying -1 to 1' at home.
As long as there are no 6 minute scoreless stretches like last game, and that's unlikely to be repeated here, I like the Bucks to get over 106.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 05-25-2019 at 06:37 PM.
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Old 05-30-2019, 06:18 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Recap: It was the doghouse for Mirotik (not a motivational sit down in the previous game.)
Wager canceled because he didn't get in the game.
Missed with my insurance bet in case he played and didn't hit 6' as Milw lost and didn't cover the team total.
Record 0-2

No play recommended tonight, gonna watch the first one and see how it shakes out for a prop or two in the next one.
In the meantime, a lot of people (not here, but all over) talking about how "Toronto swept them in the regular season!"
It was just two games, one went to OT.
Remember what was being said about Houston before the GS series:
"They took three of four during the regular season!"
How'd that work out?

I like GS in the series, still think the Raps are too one-note to win it all.
Was wrong vs Milw though, so ya never know.

Good luck to the Mall tonight.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 05-30-2019 at 06:21 PM.
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Old 06-05-2019, 12:29 PM
Mr. NASCAR Mr. NASCAR is offline
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Did some stat work, sharing it here in case anyone is looking for some prop action/fun tonight.
0-2 in playoffs thus far.

Player name, followed by the differential in their home ppg vs rd,
followed by their PPG vs GS (reg season),
followed by their PPG this post-season (all games),
followed by their posted number in tonight's game.

Gasol: -3; 11; 9; 9'

Ibaka: +3; 20; 8'; 7'

Leonard: flat; 37; 31; 30'

Lowry: +4; 16; 14; 14'

Siakam: flat; 19; 19; 18


Gasol's season avg 13.5 PPG, 3 pts fewer on the rd, so -3.
He avg's 11 vs GS, his playoff avg is 9.
Tonight's #: 9' Un 120
Here's my take on this one. In Q4, when Toronto is losing, he passes up open jumpers as noted now by game announcers on at least two occasions that I have seen/heard, including game 2 in this series.
I like GS to win tonight, so I'm buying Gasol Under. He'll likely take one or two 3 ptrs in Q1, need him to miss so he starts cold and looks to pass more during the rest of the game. Also would help if the game is close in Q4 so he looks to pass rather than shoot a 3 if they are down double digits on the scoreboard.

Ibaka is a possible play on the Over for me, season avg for GS is 20, so 7' looks low, but then factor in only 7 & 5 scored in the first two games post-season, so undecided.

Lowry is a +4 rd/hm. He avg's 16 PPG vs GS, but in 2 post-season games, at hm, only scored 13 & 7.
Staying away from this one.

Leonard #'s are the same at hm as on the rd, 26 PPG. He's upped his game in post-season at 30 PPG.
Tight # for tonight, no play for me.

Siakam avgs 17 PPG this year, same on the rd as hm, so it's flat (no diff rd vs hm).
In the playoffs he's avg'ing 19 PPG.
Season vs GS 19. Tonight's #: 19.
In their last three losses he's scored 12, 8 and 15.
Lean Under because I think they lose tonight, but no play right now, may buy later.

For now, Gasol Un 9' -120.
Will likely add something later, will post it if I do.

Good luck with your plays tonight.

Last edited by Mr. NASCAR; 06-05-2019 at 12:38 PM.
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