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  #151  
Old 04-09-2019, 09:33 PM
Boudreaux Boudreaux is offline
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Thanks for posting GG
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  #152  
Old 04-14-2019, 11:51 AM
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Brad Stevens is 19-4 UNDER 1H in the first round of the playoffs as the coach of the Celtics
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  #153  
Old 04-14-2019, 12:15 PM
iceage iceage is offline
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  #154  
Old 04-16-2019, 05:42 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
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OKC 1st HALF 1-13, 3-22, 4-27
Orlando 11-3 4Q
Denver 1st Half UNDER 20-6
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  #155  
Old 04-18-2019, 06:48 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goldengreek View Post
Brad Stevens is 19-4 UNDER 1H in the first round of the playoffs as the coach of the Celtics
Now 21-4
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  #156  
Old 04-19-2019, 09:55 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
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Since 2003, #NBAPlayoffs road favorites of 6 or more: 34-18-1 ATS. Past 5 seasons, 20-6 ATS (#Warriors 11-2 ATS during that span) #Bucks





NBA road favs of 7.5 or more points in the playoffs 17-1 ATS last 18
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Last edited by goldengreek; 04-19-2019 at 10:02 AM.
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  #157  
Old 04-19-2019, 11:12 AM
Sarge844 Sarge844 is offline
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Great info. Thanks
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  #158  
Old 04-19-2019, 12:01 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goldengreek View Post
Since 2003, #NBAPlayoffs road favorites of 6 or more: 34-18-1 ATS. Past 5 seasons, 20-6 ATS (#Warriors 11-2 ATS during that span) #Bucks





NBA road favs of 7.5 or more points in the playoffs 17-1 ATS last 18

Home teams down 0-2 in playoffs are 25-4 1H ATS in GM3 at home.
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  #159  
Old 04-19-2019, 12:33 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
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Home teams down 0-2


it has been profitable over time to bet those teams on the first-half spread: They’ve gone 124-80-5 (60.8%) ATS, good for a 16.2% Return on Investment.

If those teams have lost each of the first two games, they are even more valuable:

75-36-1. (68 %)

Those teams have hit at a 67.6% rate historically, good for a 29.0% ROI! It’s been consistently profitable over time, too. In fact, they’ve gone a ridiculous 24-4 ATS over the last three postseasons.

But let’s not stop there.

A lot of these teams are actually getting plus-money odds on the first-half moneyline, meaning it has been very profitable to bet them in that regard in Game 3s:

37-13 (74%)

If those teams are down 0-2 in the series, they’re 37-13, good for a stupid 38.7% ROI. They’ve won the first half by an average of 4.12 points. First-half dogs in this situation have gone 19-8 for a 50.9% ROI!

Last edited by goldengreek; 04-19-2019 at 12:35 PM.
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  #160  
Old 04-19-2019, 02:27 PM
secondbase secondbase is offline
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good stuff gg
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  #161  
Old 04-19-2019, 05:35 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
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These mother fuckers adjusted last yr and adjusted even more now

OKC -7.5 full game
OKC - 6 first half

Indy -3 full game
Indy-3 1st Half

Might have to hit 1st Q lines harder
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  #162  
Old 04-19-2019, 05:38 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
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Quote:
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Brad Stevens is 21-4 UNDER 1H in the first round of the playoffs as the coach of the Celtics
....
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  #163  
Old 04-20-2019, 12:33 PM
bw=betwins bw=betwins is offline
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Yes the lines are adjusted. Went 1-1 last night pacers failed to cover -2.5 but the Thunder covered the -6. Today you take the Pistons plus 4 which I don't think it will happen and the Jazz tonight-2.5.
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  #164  
Old 04-21-2019, 09:59 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
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If you've blindly bet on every favorite in the NBA playoffs the last 4 years, you are now 111-69-1 ATS (61.7%)!

My theory: Because there has been a de-emphasis on the regular season, the market is not properly adjusting for teams playing at a different level come playoff time.
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  #165  
Old 04-21-2019, 10:53 AM
Pic N Winnas Pic N Winnas is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goldengreek View Post
If you've blindly bet on every favorite in the NBA playoffs the last 4 years, you are now 111-69-1 ATS (61.7%)!

My theory: Because there has been a de-emphasis on the regular season, the market is not properly adjusting for teams playing at a different level come playoff time.
Hopefully it lasts one more day as I'm on 3 of the Favs. Probably because there are just bad matchups in these series, or clearly better teams where they can't give enough points.
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  #166  
Old 04-21-2019, 01:37 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
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Golden State opened as 11-point favorites in L.A for Game 4. The Warriors are just the 21st team to be favored by 8.5 or more points on the road in the playoffs since 2005. The previous 20 teams went 17-3 straight-up and 15-4-1 ATS, covering by 5.5 points per game.



Since 2005, opponents are 37-49-3 (43%) against the first-half spread on the road against the Lakers or Clippers in the playoffs.



The Pacers are down 0-3 to the Celtics. Can Indiana avoid being swept? Since 2005, teams down 0-3 have gone 20-39 (34%) straight-up and 24-32-3 ATS. In the last three postseasons, teams facing elimination have performed even worse, going 3-11 straight-up.

This season, the Pacers are 17-2 (89.5%) straight-up in the first half at home after losing their last meeting against their upcoming opponent; they’ve won those first halves by 6.8 points per game


Since 2005, there have been 48 games played before 4 p.m. ET in the playoffs. The home teams in that spot are just 22-24-2 (47.8%) against the first-half spread, but home dogs are 8-3-1 (72.7%).

More small sample size theater: Unders in day postseason games (before 4 p.m. ET) have gone 75-56-2 (57.3%) historically. If the home team is an underdog, those unders have gone 25-9 (73.5%). Unders in the first half specifically have hit at a 61.1% rate historically.



In franchise history, the Raptors are 35-47-3 (42.7%) ATS in the playoffs and just 18-34-2 (34.6%) in the Kyle Lowry era (since 2013-14). Since that time, the Raptors are 3-9 ATS when listed as a favorite after a straight-up win in the playoffs, failing to cover the spread by 5.7 points per game. –



In 282 seven-game playoff series, only 20 teams that went down 0-2 came back to win
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  #167  
Old 04-22-2019, 05:45 PM
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Utah is trying to avoid being swept down 0-3 in the series to Houston. Since 2005, teams down 0-3 have gone 20-40 straight-up and 24-33-3 ATS. In the last three postseasons, teams facing elimination have performed even worse, going 3-12 straight-up.

Since 2005, teams that are listed as favorites at home in Game 3 but then are listed as underdogs at home in Game 4 are 21-10 ATS, covering by 5.7 points per game. The Pacers in Game 4 were in this same spot but failed to cover the spread by a half point.

Road teams up 3-0 are 17-13-1 ATS since 2005 in the first round and 28-23-1 overall in the playoffs. Favorites up 3-0 in Game 4 are 23-17-2 ATS.




Since 2005, only four teams have been favored by double digits on the road in Game 4 of a playoff series. All four teams won straight-up by at least 10 points, and they covered by an average of 5.1 PPG. – Evan Abrams

As 13-point road favorites in the playoffs Monday night, the Bucks are the 2nd-largest road favorite in the NBA playoffs since at least 2005. The largest road favorite prior to Milwaukee tonight was back in 2016, when the Spurs were 13.5-point favorites against the Grizzlies. – Abrams

When the Pistons take the court Monday night, they are going to be very disappointed to find out that they still have to play the Bucks. This season, the Bucks are 7-0 straight up and 6-0-1 ATS against the Pistons. In all seven games, the Bucks have had the field goal percentage advantage over the Pistons, and in only one game has Detroit come within even 10 points. – Abrams

Bucks are the largest road favorite since the Spurs -13.5 at Grizzlies (2016). Double-digit favorites in the postseason have gone 62-49-3 (56%) ATS since 2005. Road favorites of 10 or more points are 5-0 SU and 3-1-1 ATS in that time. – John Ewing
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  #168  
Old 04-22-2019, 05:50 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goldengreek View Post
Utah is trying to avoid being swept down 0-3 in the series to Houston. Since 2005, teams down 0-3 have gone 20-40 straight-up and 24-33-3 ATS. In the last three postseasons, teams facing elimination have performed even worse, going 3-12 straight-up.

Since 2005, teams that are listed as favorites at home in Game 3 but then are listed as underdogs at home in Game 4 are 21-10 ATS, covering by 5.7 points per game. The Pacers in Game 4 were in this same spot but failed to cover the spread by a half point.

Road teams up 3-0 are 17-13-1 ATS since 2005 in the first round and 28-23-1 overall in the playoffs. Favorites up 3-0 in Game 4 are 23-17-2 ATS.




Since 2005, only four teams have been favored by double digits on the road in Game 4 of a playoff series. All four teams won straight-up by at least 10 points, and they covered by an average of 5.1 PPG. – Evan Abrams

As 13-point road favorites in the playoffs Monday night, the Bucks are the 2nd-largest road favorite in the NBA playoffs since at least 2005. The largest road favorite prior to Milwaukee tonight was back in 2016, when the Spurs were 13.5-point favorites against the Grizzlies. – Abrams

When the Pistons take the court Monday night, they are going to be very disappointed to find out that they still have to play the Bucks. This season, the Bucks are 7-0 straight up and 6-0-1 ATS against the Pistons. In all seven games, the Bucks have had the field goal percentage advantage over the Pistons, and in only one game has Detroit come within even 10 points. – Abrams

Bucks are the largest road favorite since the Spurs -13.5 at Grizzlies (2016). Double-digit favorites in the postseason have gone 62-49-3 (56%) ATS since 2005. Road favorites of 10 or more points are 5-0 SU and 3-1-1 ATS in that time. – John Ewing
Since 2005, #NBA playoff road teams looking for series sweep:

32-18 SU (64%)
26-22-2 ATS (54%)

Avg Line: -4.

Past 5 seasons,

12-7 SU
10-9 ATS.

road favorites:

34-13 SU
26-19-2 ATS & 12-5 SU 10-7 ATS past 5 seasons


Since 2005, dbl digit playoff road favorites:

7-0 SU 5-1-1 ATS 4-2-1 OU.

Past 5 seasons, 5-0 SU 4-1 ATS 4-0-1 OU.

Last edited by goldengreek; 04-22-2019 at 05:51 PM.
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  #169  
Old 04-23-2019, 04:55 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
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Since 2005, #NBAPlayoffs road dogs off playoff home favorite SU loss: 40-33 ATS (55%). Past 5 seasons, 16-9 ATS (64%) #GoSpursGo #ThunderUp



Raptors (-11.5) and Sixers (-8.5) are both home tonight and currently getting at least 70% of spread bets.

Via @Bet_Labs: Home teams getting at least 70% of tickets are 12-22 ATS for -10.74 units in the postseason since 2005.



This is the fourth elimination game that Russell Westbrook has faced since Kevin Durant left. The Thunder went 3-0 against the spread in the past three with Westbrook averaging 46.0 points, 12.0 rebounds and 6.3 assists per game.



The Blazers are a dominant 24-15-4 (61.5%) against the first-half spread at home this season, making them the NBA’s third-most profitable team in that spot. When they face a team better than .500 at home, they improve to 17-5-2 (77.3%) against the first-half spread, covering by 4.5 points per game.

Over the past four seasons under Terry Stotts, the Blazers are 56-31-3 (64.4%) against the first-half spread at home against teams better than .500, making them the NBA’s most profitable team in that spot, profiting bettors 21.8 units. (The Pistons are the second-most profitable team, making bettors just 5.9 units.




The Spurs cover when it matters. Since 2005, the Spurs are 72-71-1 against the spread in Games 1-4 of playoff series, but have gone 29-18-3 ATS in Games 5-7

Since 2016, the Spurs have struggled mightily the game after losing by double-digits in the playoffs, going 2-8 against the spread — a stark difference to the Spurs’ playoff successes of seasons past.

From 2005 to 2015, the Spurs went 17-9-2 ATS in this spot, covering by more than two points per game


The Spurs are 4-1-1 ATS in road games immediately after losing at home in regular-season and postseason games over the past two seasons, covering the spread by 8.6 points per game, including winning by an average of eight points per game




The Nets have lost three consecutive games since winning Game 1. Since 2005, teams that have lost at least three straight games and are listed as an underdog in their next playoff game have gone 41-58-2 (41%) against the spread.




—The Magic are 9-4 against the spread in games against conference opponents the game after losing by double-digits, covering by an average of 3.1 points to make them the NBA’s most profitable team in this spot.


Since 2005, teams favored by double-digits in a Game 5 are 25-1 straight up, winning by 14.4 points per game.
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  #170  
Old 04-24-2019, 06:14 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
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Under Steve Kerr, the Warriors are 10-1 straight-up and 8-3 against-the-spread (ATS) in Games 5-7 when coming off a straight-up win.Their only loss in this spot was to the Cavaliers in the 2016 NBA Finals.


As we all know, the Warriors are known to take their foot off the pedal at times. Over the past two seasons, they’re 9-4 ATS in the playoffs after either losing their previous game straight-up or winning by fewer than 10 points, covering by a whopping 9.3 points per game.

After winning by double-digits over that span, however, the Warriors are just 5-7 ATS in their next game, failing to cover by 3.8 points per game.

This is the 11th game the Warriors have played with a chance to close out a series since Kevin Durant joined the team. In the previous 10 games, Golden State was favored on average by eight points. The Warriors went 8-2 straight-up and 5-5 ATS in those. –




The under is 6-1-1 in the first eight meetings between the Jazz and Rockets this season, going under the total by 9.4 points per game.



Since Dec. 1, the Rockets are 12-0-1 straight-up in the second half when either trailing or leading by five or fewer points at the end of the first half at home, including 9-4 against the second-half spread, covering by 4.9 points per game.


In the past three seasons, the Rockets have scored fewer than 100 points in 31 games. In their next matchup, they have averaged 105.8 PPG, eight points below the team’s average. They went 14-17 ATS in those
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  #171  
Old 04-24-2019, 07:43 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
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Rockets 2Q 18-3-1
Gstate 12-2 1H ATS
Gsate 13-4 1H Over
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  #172  
Old 04-25-2019, 04:01 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
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Since 2005, the Spurs are a different team in the playoffs at home compared to on the road when coming off a road loss in their previous game. At home, San Antonio is 15-10-2 (60%) ATS, covering the spread by 2.4 points per game after a road loss. When the Spurs continue their road trip, they are 4-19 (17.4%) ATS, failing to cover the spread by 7.9 points per game


Since 2005, the Spurs are 58-38-3 (60%) against the spread at home in the playoffs. But as a favorite of three or fewer points or an underdog, San Antonio is 5-6-1 ATS at home in the postseason.



Spurs 0-10-1 3Q
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  #173  
Old 04-26-2019, 04:41 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
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Wanna take Clipps and it's on magic # 9.5 but


NBA ATS: Playoff road team as fave of 7.5 or more 19-2.


Although Gst was one of those 2 game 4 in LA
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  #174  
Old 04-26-2019, 05:13 PM
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Quote:
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Wanna take Clipps and it's on magic # 9.5 but


NBA ATS: Playoff road team as fave of 7.5 or more 19-2.


Although Gst was one of those 2 game 4 in LA
The longer a series goes, the more familiar opponents become with each other. Defensive adjustments are made and player fatigue becomes an issue, all of which contributes to lower-scoring outcomes. Since 2005, it has been profitable to bet the under in Games 6 and 7 of a playoff series.

95-67 to the Under 59 %




After losing as a 15-point favorite in Game 5, the Warriors are now 9-15 ATS as a double-digit favorite in the playoffs under Steve Kerr. As a single-digit favorite or underdog, Golden State has gone 41-23 (64%) ATS. The Warriors opened at -9, but now sit at -10. — Ewing

The Warriors have already lost twice in this series against the Clippers as a double-digit favorite and are now 10-point road favorites in Game 6. Since 2005, only three teams have closed above a seven-point road favorite in Games 5, 6 or 7 of a playoff series.

Two of the three road favorites lost straight-up, including Kobe Bryant and Lakers in 2009 and the “Big 3” Celtics in 2008 (both ended up winning the NBA title).


Since 2005, nine teams prior to the Clippers in Game 5 have won a playoff game as a double-digit underdog. Only two of those teams played their next game in Game 4 of a playoff series or later; both failed to cover the spread on the road:
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Old 04-27-2019, 05:58 PM
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Gregg Popovich will be coaching in his seventh career Game 7. The Spurs are 3-3 straight-up and 4-2 against the spread (ATS) in those games, covering by 3.4 points per game. Popovich is both 2-1 straight up and ATS as an underdog and on the road in Game 7s

In Game 6, the Spurs shot 57.1% from the field, including 41.7% from 3-point range. Their 57.1% field goal mark is their highest of the 2019 playoffs and highest in a playoff game since 2016 against the Thunder (it’s worth noting the Spurs lost their next game vs. OKC, shooting just 42.6% from the field).

Since 2005, 18 different teams have played a Game 5, 6 or 7 after shooting 55% from the field or higher in their previous game. Those teams went 14-4 (77.8%) ATS, covering the spread by 6.3 points per game.


The Spurs avoided elimination, beating the Nuggets 120-103 in Game 6, but history is against them advancing. Since 2005, road teams in Game 7s have gone 13-31 (29.5%) straight-up and 19-25 ATS. Bettors shouldn’t expect momentum from winning Game 6 to carry over





Is 5.5 points too many for the Nuggets to cover? History says no. Since 2005, Game 7 favorites of five or more points have gone 21-9 ATS, covering by 4.5 points per game.



In franchise history, Toronto is 3-13 against the spread (ATS) in Game 1 of a playoff series, including 1-8 ATS in Game 1s at home. Since the 2014 playoffs, the Raptors are 1-9 ATS in Game 1s, failing to cover the spread by 11.3 points per game.


Since 2005, well-rested home teams with at least four days between games have gone 101-59 (63%) ATS.


The Sixers enter their pivotal second-round series shooting extremely hot from the field. Over their past two games, the 76ers shot 50.5% from the field (95-of-188), including an impressive 22-of-59 (37.3%) from 3-point range.

Since the 2015 playoffs, teams who have entered a Game 1 after shooting at least 50% from the field in consecutive games have gone just 3-7 straight-up and 2-8 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 10 points per game.

Last edited by goldengreek; 04-27-2019 at 06:03 PM.
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