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  #176  
Old 04-28-2019, 10:56 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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Sunday will be the first time the Celtics open up a Game 1 on the road since 2016 against the Hawks. Under Brad Stevens, the Celtics are 5-4 straight-up and 6-3 against the spread (ATS) in Game 1 of a playoff series, winning and covering their last four such games since the beginning of last year’s playoffs.

In Game 3 against the Pacers, the Celtics won as 2.5-point underdogs to take control of their first-round series. That said, under Stevens, the Celtics have had their issues covering the spread in the playoffs as an underdog compared to when they are listed as the favorite.

As an underdog: 12-17 ATS (41.4%, -3 PPG ATS)

As an favorite: 19-3 ATS (86.4%, +4.4 PPG ATS)


After sweeping Detroit, Milwaukee has had six days to rest and prepare for Boston. Since 2005, it has been profitable to bet well-rested home teams in the playoffs — even if the opposing team, like Boston, is rested, too

102-59 (63%l





A majority of spread tickets are on the Rockets in Game 1. Bet against the Warriors at your own risk. Under Steve Kerr, the Warriors are 12-2 against the spread in the playoffs when getting less than 50% of bets and 39-36 ATS in all other games. Further, when listed as single-digit favorites they’ve gone 37-20 (65%) ATS. — John Ewing

Under Mike D’Antoni, the Rockets are 5-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS in Game 1 of a playoff series, covering the spread by 10.1 points per game. The Rockets’ only straight-up loss came against the Warriors at home last year.

That said, the Warriors have played in 17 total Game 1s under Kerr, going 16-1 straight-up and 10-7 ATS in those. Golden State’s only Game 1 loss came against the Thunder back in 2016

The Rockets finished up their first-round series at home in Game 5 on Wednesday night against the Jazz and enter Game 1 vs. Warriors on four days rest. The Warriors, meanwhile, are on just two days rest.

The Warriors have never played a playoff game under Steve Kerr with this big of a rest disadvantage. Since 2005, teams on two days rest or less facing a team on four days rest or more in the playoffs have gone 14-23-1 ATS (37.8%). —
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  #177  
Old 04-28-2019, 12:48 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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Originally Posted by goldengreek View Post
Sunday will be the first time the Celtics open up a Game 1 on the road since 2016 against the Hawks. Under Brad Stevens, the Celtics are 5-4 straight-up and 6-3 against the spread (ATS) in Game 1 of a playoff series, winning and covering their last four such games since the beginning of last year’s playoffs.

In Game 3 against the Pacers, the Celtics won as 2.5-point underdogs to take control of their first-round series. That said, under Stevens, the Celtics have had their issues covering the spread in the playoffs as an underdog compared to when they are listed as the favorite.

As an underdog: 12-17 ATS (41.4%, -3 PPG ATS)

As an favorite: 19-3 ATS (86.4%, +4.4 PPG ATS)


After sweeping Detroit, Milwaukee has had six days to rest and prepare for Boston. Since 2005, it has been profitable to bet well-rested home teams in the playoffs — even if the opposing team, like Boston, is rested, too

102-59 (63%l





A majority of spread tickets are on the Rockets in Game 1. Bet against the Warriors at your own risk. Under Steve Kerr, the Warriors are 12-2 against the spread in the playoffs when getting less than 50% of bets and 39-36 ATS in all other games. Further, when listed as single-digit favorites they’ve gone 37-20 (65%) ATS. — John Ewing

Under Mike D’Antoni, the Rockets are 5-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS in Game 1 of a playoff series, covering the spread by 10.1 points per game. The Rockets’ only straight-up loss came against the Warriors at home last year.

That said, the Warriors have played in 17 total Game 1s under Kerr, going 16-1 straight-up and 10-7 ATS in those. Golden State’s only Game 1 loss came against the Thunder back in 2016

The Rockets finished up their first-round series at home in Game 5 on Wednesday night against the Jazz and enter Game 1 vs. Warriors on four days rest. The Warriors, meanwhile, are on just two days rest.

The Warriors have never played a playoff game under Steve Kerr with this big of a rest disadvantage. Since 2005, teams on two days rest or less facing a team on four days rest or more in the playoffs have gone 14-23-1 ATS (37.8%). —
In 35 meetings between the Warriors and Rockets in the Steve Kerr era, the under is 24-11 (68.6%), including 14-3 (82.4%) in the playoffs, going under the total by 12.9 points per game. When the game has been played Oracle Arena in the playoffs, the under is 8-1 (88.9%), going under the total by 18.5 points per game.

Over the past two seasons, the average over/under in the 14 games between the Warriors and Rockets has been 224.8. In those 14 games, both teams have averaged a combined 217.7 points per game. In that span, the highest total was 237.5 and the lowest was at 208.5.


Under Steve Kerr, the Warriors are 21-14 (60%) against-the-spread (ATS) when facing the Rockets. They are Kerr’s most-profitable opponent ATS among all NBA teams.

In their 35 total meetings since the 2014-15 season, the road team is actually 20-15 ATS, covering the spread by 2.1 points per game. During their 17 total playoff meetings, however, the home team is 10-7 ATS.

Over the past two seasons, the Warriors are 2-5 ATS vs. the Rockets in the regular season and 4-3 ATS in the playoffs. In those 24 total games, the Warriors have been favored in 10-of-14 games, going 4-6 ATS.

During the regular season, the Warriors have struggled against the first- and second-half spread against the Rockets, going 2-5 ATS over the last two seasons. In the playoffs, though, the Warriors are 4-3 against the first- and second-half spread against the Rockets.

When it comes to the second-half moneyline in the playoffs, the Warriors could hold a distinct advantage over the Rockets in this series given these coaches’ historical marks…

Steve Kerr: 60-20-6 (+$1,175 on $100 per bet)Mike D’Antoni: 27-40-1 (-$1,626)

The Warriors have played 17 Game 1s under Steve Kerr; they are 12-5 (70.6%) against the first-half spread in those games, covering by 2.7 points per game.

Over the past two seasons, the Warriors are 2-5 ATS for the full game, first half and second half against the Rockets.

Here’s the Warriors’ second-half ATS performance vs. the Rockets based on their first-half performance:

Warriors losing at half: 3-5 ATSWarriors winning at half: 2-2 ATSTied at half: 1-1 ATS
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  #178  
Old 04-29-2019, 01:26 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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The Nuggets finished off the Spurs in Game 7 at home on Saturday night and now have a quick turnaround to face the Blazers at home in Game 1. Portland, on the other hand, finished off OKC last week and enters Game 1 on six days rest.

Since 2005, teams playing on two days rest or less facing a team on six days rest or more are just 7-17 (29.2%) against-the-spread (ATS), failing to cover by 5.0 points per game. — Evan Abrams

Teams that play at home in a Game 1 on two days rest or less are just 9-16-1 ATS (36%) since 2005, including 8-15-1 ATS (34.8%) when that team is listed as the favorite. — Abrams

Rest looks like an advantage for the Blazers, but well-rested teams haven’t performed well on the road in the playoffs. Since 2005, road teams with four or more days between games are only 57-93-1 (38%) ATS. — John Ewing

In Game 7 against the Spurs, the Nuggets shot 2-of-20 from 3-point range in the win. The last team to win a Game 7 after making two 3-point field goals or less was the Miami Heat in 2004. It has happened only five times since 1990.

Since 2005, teams that are coming off a bad 3-point shooting performance (lower than 20%) in the playoffs and then play at home have covered the spread at a 66.7% rate (48-24-3 ATS), covering by 3.8 points per game




The Raptors exercised some Game 1 demons by taking out the Sixers by 13 points at home on Saturday. Since 2013-14, the Raptors are 8-13 against-the-spread (ATS) the game directly after a straight-up and ATS win in the playoffs. They’re the second-least profitable team in that spot. — Evan Abrams

After beating Philly in Game 1, Kawhi Leonard is now 14-0 against the Sixers in his career, winning on average by 14.9 points per game. His teams are 10-4 ATS in those games. — John Ewing

On a similar note … In the last 14 meetings between these teams in Toronto dating back to 2013, the Raptors are 14-0 straight-up and 11-3 ATS, covering by 8.0 points per game.
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  #179  
Old 04-29-2019, 03:11 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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Originally Posted by goldengreek View Post
The Nuggets finished off the Spurs in Game 7 at home on Saturday night and now have a quick turnaround to face the Blazers at home in Game 1. Portland, on the other hand, finished off OKC last week and enters Game 1 on six days rest.

Since 2005, teams playing on two days rest or less facing a team on six days rest or more are just 7-17 (29.2%) against-the-spread (ATS), failing to cover by 5.0 points per game. — Evan Abrams

Teams that play at home in a Game 1 on two days rest or less are just 9-16-1 ATS (36%) since 2005, including 8-15-1 ATS (34.8%) when that team is listed as the favorite. — Abrams

Rest looks like an advantage for the Blazers, but well-rested teams haven’t performed well on the road in the playoffs. Since 2005, road teams with four or more days between games are only 57-93-1 (38%) ATS. — John Ewing

In Game 7 against the Spurs, the Nuggets shot 2-of-20 from 3-point range in the win. The last team to win a Game 7 after making two 3-point field goals or less was the Miami Heat in 2004. It has happened only five times since 1990.

Since 2005, teams that are coming off a bad 3-point shooting performance (lower than 20%) in the playoffs and then play at home have covered the spread at a 66.7% rate (48-24-3 ATS), covering by 3.8 points per game




The Raptors exercised some Game 1 demons by taking out the Sixers by 13 points at home on Saturday. Since 2013-14, the Raptors are 8-13 against-the-spread (ATS) the game directly after a straight-up and ATS win in the playoffs. They’re the second-least profitable team in that spot. — Evan Abrams

After beating Philly in Game 1, Kawhi Leonard is now 14-0 against the Sixers in his career, winning on average by 14.9 points per game. His teams are 10-4 ATS in those games. — John Ewing

On a similar note … In the last 14 meetings between these teams in Toronto dating back to 2013, the Raptors are 14-0 straight-up and 11-3 ATS, covering by 8.0 points per game.
2019 #NBAPlayoffs betting trends:

Favorites: 27-17 ATS
Double-digit favorites: 7-2 ATS
Following line movement (0.5 pt or more): 21-13 ATS
Betting against the public: 16-27 ATS
Unders: 26-17-1
Unders when the line decreases: 14-7
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  #180  
Old 04-30-2019, 05:36 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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The Bucks lost Game 1 by 22 points. Since 2005, playoff teams that lost their previous game by 20 or more points have gone just 94-90-2 ATS in their next game but 34-25-1 ATS when favored. – John Ewing

Will the momentum from their Game 1 win carry over to Game 2 for the Celtics? Under Brad Stevens, the Celtics are 11-6 ATS in the playoffs when winning their previous game by 10 or more points and 3-0 ATS when winning by 20-plus. – Ewing

The Bucks had the best record in the NBA (60-22) in the regular season. Since 2005, playoff teams that won 70% or more of their games have gone 58-36-2 (62%) ATS when coming off a double-digit loss. – Ewing

Under Brad Stevens, the Celtics have played six playoff games as an underdog directly after beating that same opponent by double digits in their last game. The Celtics are 1-5 straight up and 2-4 ATS in that spot.




The Celtics are playing their fourth consecutive playoff game on the road after sweeping the Pacers and starting Games 1 and 2 on the road. This season, the Celtics have really struggled on the fourth game or later of a road trip, especially when you compare that record to previous seasons.

2018-19: 0-3 ATS (-11.2 PPG ATS)

2013-2017: 9-4 ATS (+4.5 PPG ATS)


top-three seeds have crushed in Game 2s coming off a loss in Game 1

29-18-2 (62%)

If those teams are being faded the public, it’s even better:

51-27-2. (65%)

And finally, when there’s been “sharp money” — defined as more money wagered than spread tickets — on the favorites, they’ve typically crushed ATS:

102-52-2. (66%l








Game 1’s over/under closed at 224, and the under hit by 20 points. In 36 meetings between the Rockets and Warriors in the Steve Kerr era, the under has gone 25-11, including 15-3 in the playoffs. – John Ewing

This season, the Warriors have played 18 home games directly after winning a home game. The Warriors are just 7-11 ATS in that next home game, failing to cover the spread by 6.9 points per game. One issue, though: The spread in Game 2 is just 5.5 points. Of the 18 home games in this spot this year, the lowest point spread for Golden State was 5.5 against the Bucks in November — a 134-111 Bucks win.




Since 2005, NBA teams are covering the spread 50.8% of the time in the playoffs after failing to cover the spread in their previous game. In that span, Steve Kerr is 23-16 ATS (59%) in that spot, while Mike D’Antoni is 27-18 ATS (60%). They are two of the six-most profitable coaches in that spot since 2005.
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  #181  
Old 05-01-2019, 01:46 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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After beating the Blazers in Game 1, the Nuggets are now 4-1 at home in the playoffs after going an NBA-best 37-4 in the Pepsi Center during the regular season. Denver is 28-18 ATS at home this season. – John Ewing

Did you know? With Jusuf Nurkic out of the Blazers lineup, Nikola Jokic has been dominating the Blazers of late, but, honestly, he has had his way with Portland all season long, especially at home. Jokic is averaging 33 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 7.7 APG, 62.5% FG%, 87.5% FT% and 50% 3-pt FG% at home against the Blazers this season in three games. –




Both the Blazers and Nuggets shot over 50% from the field in Game 1, going over the total by almost 20 points. Since 2005, when two teams play in Games 2-7 of a playoff series after shooting at least 50% from the field, the over is 14-7 (66.7%) in their next game, going over the total by 3.5 points per game
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  #182  
Old 05-01-2019, 05:05 PM
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good stuff as usual
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  #183  
Old 05-02-2019, 07:03 PM
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The Raptors lost Game 2 as 7.5-point favorites. Don’t overreact, though: Since 2005, teams that lost their previous playoff game as a favorite have gone 176-134-10 (57%) against the spread in the next game. — John Ewing

Since 2005, teams have struggled ATS in the playoffs after winning straight-up as an underdog in their previous game, going 176-204-12 ATS (46.3%), including 80-99-4 ATS (44.7%) when those teams play at home in their next game.

The Sixers this season have particularly struggled in this spot, going 3-7 ATS after a straight-up win as an underdog, failing to cover by 5.9 points per game. After a straight-up win this season, the Sixers are 22-33 ATS (40%), making them the least profitable team ATS in that spot. — Evan Abrams

In Game 2, both the Sixers and Raptors struggled from the field, shooting 40% or less. Since 2005, when two teams in a playoff series (Games 2-7) both shoot 40% from the field or less, the over is 23-18-1 (56.1%) in the next game. In those 42 instances, the over is cashing by 5.6 points per game
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  #184  
Old 05-03-2019, 05:23 PM
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Under Brad Stevens, the Celtics are 19-3 against the spread as a favorite in the playoffs, including 8-0 ATS when listed as a small favorite of three or fewer points. In those eight games, Boston has covered the spread by an average of 10 points per game. — John Ewing

Did you know? This season, the Bucks are 37-18-3 ATS (67.3%) when facing Eastern Conference teams, profiting bettors $1,678 on $100 per bet. The last time a team finished a season more profitable ATS than the Bucks this year was the 2010-11 Memphis Grizzlies. — Evan Abrams

The Bucks have played five games this season as an underdog against an Eastern Conference team. They are 4-1 straight up and ATS in those games, with their only loss coming against … you guessed it, the Celtics in Boston as a 2.5-point underdog.



In the playoffs, when the favorite is getting more money than spread bets, those teams have been undervalued

103-52 (66%):
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  #185  
Old 05-03-2019, 05:25 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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Under Brad Stevens, the Celtics are 19-3 against the spread as a favorite in the playoffs, including 8-0 ATS when listed as a small favorite of three or fewer points. In those eight games, Boston has covered the spread by an average of 10 points per game. — John Ewing

Did you know? This season, the Bucks are 37-18-3 ATS (67.3%) when facing Eastern Conference teams, profiting bettors $1,678 on $100 per bet. The last time a team finished a season more profitable ATS than the Bucks this year was the 2010-11 Memphis Grizzlies. — Evan Abrams

The Bucks have played five games this season as an underdog against an Eastern Conference team. They are 4-1 straight up and ATS in those games, with their only loss coming against … you guessed it, the Celtics in Boston as a 2.5-point underdog.



In the playoffs, when the favorite is getting more money than spread bets, those teams have been undervalued

103-52 (66%):



Denver was dreadful 34-98 (34.7%) from the floor in Wednesday’s Game 2 loss, including shooting 6-of-29 (20.7%) from behind the arc. Some good news, though: Since 2005, teams that made 21% or fewer of their 3-point attempts in the previous game have gone 99-79-6 (56%) against the spread. —
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  #186  
Old 05-04-2019, 07:32 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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This is just the eighth game under Steve Kerr that the Warriors have been underdogs in the playoffs. In the previous seven games, Golden State went 4-3 straight up and against the spread. Twice the Warriors were dogs to the Rockets in last year’s playoff series, with the teams splitting those matchups. — John Ewing

Did you know? The Warriors have a 2-0 lead in this series. In the Kerr era, Golden State is 11-1 in playoff series after winning the first two games. The loss came in the 2016 Finals when the team blew a 3-1 lead to LeBron. –– Ewing

In the Bet Labs database since 2005, 66 different coaches have been at the helm for a Game 3. Of those head coaches, the least profitable is Mike D’Antoni at 6-11 ATS (35.3%), failing to cover the spread by 6.0 points per game. — Evan Abrams

All the talk around the Rockets-Warriors playoff series from a bettor’s point of view has been the over/under, especially with 12 points scored in 22 seconds in Game 2 to bring the game over the total.

In the 19 playoff meetings between the Rockets and Warriors since 2014, the first-half under is 13-5-1 (72.2%), including 8-1 over the last two years, going under the total by 8.9 points per game
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  #187  
Old 05-04-2019, 08:35 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goldengreek View Post
Home teams down 0-2


it has been profitable over time to bet those teams on the first-half spread: They’ve gone 124-80-5 (60.8%) ATS, good for a 16.2% Return on Investment.

If those teams have lost each of the first two games, they are even more valuable:

75-36-1. (68 %)

Those teams have hit at a 67.6% rate historically, good for a 29.0% ROI! It’s been consistently profitable over time, too. In fact, they’ve gone a ridiculous 24-4 ATS over the last three postseasons.

But let’s not stop there.

A lot of these teams are actually getting plus-money odds on the first-half moneyline, meaning it has been very profitable to bet them in that regard in Game 3s:

37-13 (74%)

If those teams are down 0-2 in the series, they’re 37-13, good for a stupid 38.7% ROI. They’ve won the first half by an average of 4.12 points. First-half dogs in this situation have gone 19-8 for a 50.9% ROI!

bump
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  #188  
Old 05-05-2019, 11:27 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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The Raptors lost Game 3 by 21 points. In the past five postseasons, teams that lost their previous game by double digits and then are underdogs in their next playoff game have gone 47-74-1 (39%) against the spread. — John Ewing

The Sixers are just the fifth team since 2005 to win their previous game by 20 or more points and then open as a home underdog in the playoffs. The previous four teams went only 2-2 straight up and ATS but covered the spread by 5.8 points per game. — Ewing

The Raptors are simply a different team without Pascal Siakam, who is doubtful for Game 4. They’ve played 88 minutes with Siakam off the floor in the playoffs, posting an Offensive Rating of 94.2 and an eFG% of 42.9%; they’ve been at 109.7 and 55.2% with him playing. — Evan Abrams

The Sixers are coming off what I would call the triple-crown of offense: winning by 20-plus points while shooting 50%-plus from the field and 40%-plus from 3-point range.

Since 2005, 90 NBA playoff teams have been able to pull off the feat, but only 11 have done it vs. a team with a 70% win rate (with that team below a 70% win rate). Those 11 teams went 3-8 straight up in their next game. Over the last three years, the five most recent teams all lost and failed to cover the spread by 6.3 points per game.





Game 3 was the third time since 2005 that two teams both scored 130 points or more in a playoff game … although it did take four overtimes for the Blazers and Nuggets hit that mark.

In the two previous situations, the over went 2-0 in the next game, hitting by 11.8 points per game. Historically, when two teams have both scored 120-plus, the over has gone 12-6 (66.7%) in the next game, hitting by 3.9 PPG. — Evan Abrams

Over the past three postseasons, the Blazers have struggled against the second-half spread, going 3-13 (18.8%); they’re the least-profitable team in this spot during the span. In the 2019 playoffs, the Blazers are 2-6 against the second-half spread, losing four straight entering Game 4 on Sunday
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  #189  
Old 05-06-2019, 10:00 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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The Warriors are 15-8 ATS (65.2%) after a straight-up loss in the playoffs under Steve Kerr, covering by 5.5 points per game. Against Western Conference opponents after a loss, they are 13-4 ATS (76.5%), covering by 7.3 PPG. – Evan Abrams

Under Kerr, the Warriors have never played a playoff series in which they did not win at least one game straight-up and ATS on the road. They had done it in 17 consecutive series entering this conference semifinal series against the Rockets. – Abrams

Regardless of whether it’s the playoffs or the regular season, after a team defeats the Warriors, they have a tough time getting up for their next game … even if it is the Warriors again. Since 2014-15, teams are 44-61-3 ATS (41.9%) after defeating the Warriors — 38.1% ATS in the playoffs and 42.9% in the regular season. – Abrams

Bettors expect the Warriors to bounce back, as a majority of spread tickets have been placed on Golden State. Since 2005, it has been profitable to wager on unpopular favorites like the Rockets in the playoffs.

145-110 (57%l





This season, the Bucks are 38-18-3 ATS (67.9%) when facing an Eastern Conference team, profiting bettors $1,781 on $100 per bet. They are the most-profitable team against a conference opponent since the 2010-11 Memphis Grizzlies. – Evan Abrams

The Bucks have played five games this season as an underdog against an Eastern Conference team. Milwaukee is 5-1 straight-up and ATS, covering by 10.1 points per game. Their only loss came against … the Celtics in Boston as a 2.5-point underdog. – Abrams

The Bucks beat the Celtics in Boston as an underdog in Game 3. The impressive win hasn’t convinced bettors, however, as a majority of spread tickets are on the Celtics in Game 4. Since 2005, when a top-two seed has received less than 45% of bets in a playoff game (like the Bucks), they have gone 121-72-1 (63%) ATS. –
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  #190  
Old 05-06-2019, 04:07 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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Rockets ATS run 2nd Quarter 22-3-1, 17-3. 13-1
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  #191  
Old 05-06-2019, 11:39 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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Rockets ATS run 2nd Quarter

22-4-1

18-3.

14-1

Their record against the spread in the 2nd Q
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  #192  
Old 05-07-2019, 11:56 AM
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In the first four games of the Raptors-Sixers series, the under has cashed in all four games by a margin of 20 points per game. Since 2005, Games 5-7 of a playoff series have historically gone under the total at a 54.4% rate, hitting by about a full point per game.

In that span, this is just the 22nd time that two teams have gone under the total in the first four games of a playoff series. In Game 5, the under is 13-8 (61.9%) in those games, hitting by 5.4 points per game. Of those 21 games, the highest over/under was 208.5 between the Warriors and Rockets in last year’s playoffs; the Raptors-Sixers Game 5 total is set at 211.5





The Denver Nuggets are making a serious playoff run.

Of the eight teams left in the postseason, only the Nuggets failed to make the playoffs in 2017-18, finishing with a 46-36 record and last in a packed Northwest Division that featured four other teams making the postseason.

When it comes to the playoffs, the narrative has always been that experience matters. Whether it’s players or coaches who have been there before (like LeBron James), or even teams with numerous core players with playoff experience (like the Warriors), the betting market has always taken postseason experience very seriously.

According to our data at Bet Labs, non-playoff teams are 203-202-8 (50.1%) against the spread in the playoffs when facing a playoff team from the previous season since 2005.

When you look closer at series between returning playoff and teams that didn’t make the previous postseason, the team that made the playoffs the season prior has had more of an advantage in the betting market the deeper a series goes.

Here’s how the non-playoff team from the season prior performed against a returning playoff team in Games 1-4 vs. Games 5-7:

Games 1-4: 157-129-6 (54.9%) ATS; covered by 1.4 points per game

Games 5-7: 46-73-2 (38.7%) ATS; failed to cover by 1.5 points per game
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  #193  
Old 05-07-2019, 05:29 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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Since 2002, #NBAPlayoffs road dogs ATS off home favorite loss to same opp: 59-41 + line 5 or less: 43-24 (33-34 SU) #Blazers #Nuggets
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  #194  
Old 05-08-2019, 05:32 AM
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The Warriors have dropped back-to-back games. This is just the sixth time in the playoffs Golden State has lost consecutive games under Steve Kerr. In the previous five times, the Warriors went 5-1 SU and ATS in their next game. – John Ewing

The Warriors are going for history in 2019. Golden State is trying to become the fourth team since the NBA-ABA merger in 1976-77 to win three consecutive titles, joining the 2000-02 Lakers and both Bulls teams of the 1990s.

Since the merger, eight teams have won back-to-back titles with the opportunity to win a third straight. All eight teams experienced exactly what the Warriors are feeling right now — losing back-to-back games on that journey. Here is why that next game has been pivotal in history:

4 of those 8 teams lost the next game and all four lost the series.4 of those 8 teams won the next game and 3 of the 4 went on to 3-peat (exception: 1991 Pistons) – Evan Abrams

Is the bounce back inevitable for the Warriors? They shot 8-of-33 (24.2%) in Game 4 against the Rockets — the lowest 3P% in their last 26 playoff games.

Under Steve Kerr, the Warriors are 15-1 straight-up and 10-6 ATS at home in the regular season and playoffs after shooting below 25% from 3-point range in their previous game, winning by 12.4 points per game. Golden State’s one loss in that spot came against the Thunder in the 2018 playoffs by 28 points




The Celtics opened as eight-point underdogs. Under Brad Stevens, Boston is 13-18 ATS as a dog in the playoffs, including 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS in late-series matchups (Games 5-7). – John Ewing

The Celtics have lost three consecutive games after winning Game 1. Since 2005, teams on losing streaks of at least three games have gone 42-62-2 ATS in the playoffs. – Ewing

As John noted, teams on extended losing streaks in the playoffs have been great fade bets, going 42-62-2 ATS. When you focus in on just Brad Stevens, though, you get a bit of a different story. In the regular season and playoffs, the Celtics are 17-8 ATS after losing at least three consecutive games straight-up and ATS. – Evan Abrams

Since 2005, home teams in Games 5-7 of a playoff series are 34-2 (94.4%) straight-up, winning by 15.4 points per game. The only two losses came in Game 5 of the first round this year when the Clippers beat the Warriors as 15-point underdogs and back in 2006, when LeBron James and the Cavaliers beat the Pistons as 11-point underdogs also in a Game 5.
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Old 05-08-2019, 10:57 AM
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going with streaks or going against them ? tough choice
I appreciate your info GG
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Old 05-08-2019, 01:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goldengreek View Post
Rockets ATS run 2nd Quarter

22-4-1

18-3.

14-1

Their record against the spread in the 2nd Q
Bump
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Old 05-09-2019, 06:30 PM
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The Sixers are home underdogs in Game 6 after losing 125-89 to the Raptors on Tuesday. Since 2005, home underdogs in the playoffs have gone 115-134-6 (46%) against the spread. In Games 6-7, home dogs have gone 10-26-1 (28%) ATS. — John Ewing

Recently, home underdogs in Game 6 have struggled mightily in the playoffs. Since 2014-15, they are 0-10 straight-up, losing by 19.5 points per game. In the BetLabs database (since 2005), home underdogs are 5-20 (20%) straight-up in Games 6 and 7 when they lost the previous game by double digits. Those 25 teams lost by 9.4 points per game and have dropped the last nine affairs

The Sixers enter Game 6 having really struggled from the field in their last two games, shooting 42% or worse in both losses. Since 2005, teams that shoot 42% or worse in consecutive games entering a Game 6 or Game 7 are only 13-26 ATS (33.3%), failing to cover the spread by 4.1 points per game. — Abrams

The Sixers are down 3-2 heading home to try and extend the series, and one of the reasons for their hole is the play of their star, Joel Embiid. In the five games so far against the Raptors, Embiid is shooting 38.3% from the field with 19 turnovers. The issue for Philly? When Embiid is off the court in this series, the Sixers have been an absolute disaster.

Full Game

On Court: +9.6 Net Rating (157 min)Off Court: -38.6 Net Rating (83 min)

First Half

On Court: +13 Net Rating (82 min)Off Court: -41.2 Net Rating (38 min)

Second Half

On Court: +5.5 Net Rating (74 min)Off Court: -37.3 Net Rating (46 min)



More on Ewing’s numbers above: In Game 6s in particular, home dogs are 9-25-1 ATS; they’re 1-6 after two consecutive losses.










As a series progresses, teams become more familiar with each other. Defensive adjustments are made and player fatigue becomes an issue, all of which contribute to lower-scoring outcomes. As a result, it has been profitable to bet the under in Games 6 and 7 of a playoff series.

96-68 (59%)


Nuggets on Tuesday. Can bettors trust Portland to bounce back as four-point favorites in Game 6? Since 2005, teams who lost their previous game by 10 or more points and then were favored in their next matchup have gone 131-93-6 (59%) against the spread in the playoffs. — Ewing

Under head coach Terry Stotts, the Blazers have had a tough time bouncing back in the playoffs after a loss. Portland is 8-16 ATS (33.3%) after a straight-up loss in the playoffs under Stotts, making him the second-least profitable coach in BetLabs in this spot since 2012, Stott’s first season in Portland.

Zooming out, the Blazers are 14-30-1 ATS (31.8%) in the playoffs overall under Stotts, making him the second-least profitable coach in the NBA ahead of just Dwane Casey. — Evan Abrams

Under Stotts, the Blazers are 1-9 against the first-half spread in Games 5-7 of a playoff series, failing to cover by 3.3 points per game. In the BetLabs database (since 2005), the only coach less profitable than Stotts in this spot is Erik Spoelstra

Last edited by goldengreek; 05-09-2019 at 06:36 PM.
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  #198  
Old 05-09-2019, 08:49 PM
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1st Q ATS this series

4-1 Portland

All playoffs

Denver 2-10
Port 7-3
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Old 05-10-2019, 10:07 AM
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The Warriors opened as 5.5-point underdogs in Game 6. This is the most points Golden State has gotten in a playoff game in the Steve Kerr era; the previous high was 3.5. The Warriors are 4-5 straight up and against the spread as underdogs in the postseason. — John Ewing

In the Kerr era, the Warriors have been underdogs of five or more points in seven previous games, including the regular season and playoffs. Golden State went 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in those contests. — Ewing

A majority of spread tickets are on the Warriors as underdogs despite the Kevin Durant injury. In the playoffs during the Kerr era, Golden State is 1-5 ATS when getting 50% or more of bets as an underdog and 3-0 ATS when the public fades them getting points

Over the last three seasons, the Warriors have played 33 total games without Kevin Durant but with Steph Curry. Golden State is 29-4 straight-up and 21-12 ATS, winning by an average of 12.6 points per game. –– Abrams

Since Kevin Durant arrived in Golden State in 2016-17, the Warriors have faced the Rockets four times without KD. Steph Curry played in all four games, and the Warriors went 4-0 SU and ATS in those, covering the spread by 5.3 points per game. Also of note: In those four games without Durant, the under cashed by a whopping 13.5 PPG. — Abrams

In the 40 games without Durant since joining the Warriors in 2016, the under is 27-13 (67.5%). When Durant is out and Curry is in, the under is 23-10 (70%), going under the total by 8.2 points per game.
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Old 05-12-2019, 03:36 AM
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NBA Playoff Game 7 Betting TrendsHow Important is Home-Court Advantage?

In some sports, like hockey, home-court (ice) advantage doesn’t matter in the playoffs. But in the NBA, teams playing at home have a distinct edge in Game 7s. A raucous crowd, familiar surroundings and sleeping in your own bed the night before a do-or-die playoff game contribute to the advantage.

Plus, teams hosting a Game 7 had a superior record during the regular season, which suggests they are the better squad.

In the regular season, home teams have won 59.4% of their games since 2005. In the postseason, teams with home court have gone 764-426 (64.2%) straight up (SU) in Games 1-6. In Game 7s, home teams get an extra boost as they have gone 32-13 (71.1%) SU during that time.

Home teams also have a winning against-the-spread (ATS) record in Game 7s. Since 2005, home teams in elimination games are 25-20 (55.6%) ATS.

Can Momentum Carry Over?

The Blazers and Sixers have momentum on their side after forcing a decisive Game 7. Portland’s offense came to life as Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum combined to score 62 points on Thursday. The shots were also falling for Philly, as the team scored 112 points after being held to 96 or fewer points in the previous two matchups.

Does the momentum from a Game 6 victory carry over?

The data implies it doesn’t. Teams that won the previous game have gone 20-25 SU and 23-22 ATS in Game 7s since 2005.

As underdogs, the Blazers and Sixers are in a precarious position. Since 2005, teams getting points in Game 7 after winning Game 6 have gone 8-20 SU and 13-15 ATS.

Do the Favorites Cover?

Being favored in a Game 7 correlates with having home-court advantage. Since 2005, 43 of 45 favorites played Game 7 at home. The chalk is 32-13 (71.1%) SU and 25-20 (55.6%) ATS in Game 7s. The Raptors and Nuggets are home favorites on Sunday.

The larger the spread, the more profitable it has been to wager on the favorite. It is a small sample size, but the results are impressive:

All favs 25-20 ATS
Favs of 3 or more 25-14
Double digit favs 2-0


Where’s the Value in the Total?

As a series progresses teams become more familiar with each other. Defensive adjustments are made and player fatigue becomes an issue, all of which contribute to lower-scoring outcomes.

Since 2005, unders in Games 6 and 7 of a playoff series have gone 96-70 (57.8%). If a majority of bets are placed on the over, the under improves to 88-59 (59.9%).

The over hit in both the Raptors-Sixers and Nuggets- Blazers Game 6s. Bettors are expecting the Game 7s to be high scoring as well as more than 60% of tickets are on the overs. History suggests they’ll be disappointed as late-series games tend to go under.









Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum combined for 62 points as the Blazers forced a Game 7. They have the momentum after their Game 6 victory, but history is against them advancing to the Western Conference Finals. Since 2005, teams that won Game 6 have gone 20-25 straight up and 23-22 against the spread in Game 7. If the team is an underdog, they have gone 8-20 SU and 13-15 ATS. –– John Ewing

The Nuggets finished last in the Northwest Division last season despite a 46-36 record, while the Blazers finished first at 49-33. Since 2005, when teams that failed to make the playoffs the year before face a team that did make the playoffs, in a Game 7, the team with the playoff experience is 16-3 ATS (84.2%), covering by 6.8 points per game. When those experienced teams are listed as the underdog, they are 5-0 ATS, covering by 7.2 points per game. — Evan Abrams

Both the Raptors and Nuggets lost by double digits in Game 6 and now have an uphill battle in Game 7 on the road. Since 2013-14, teams to lose by double-digits in Game 6 are 10-14 (41.7%) ATS in Game 7.


The Denver Nuggets having home court is obviously huge here. They were one of the best home teams in the regular season this year, going 25-16 (61%) ATS and covering by an average of 3.24 points per game. They had extreme home/road splits, which isn’t too surprising given the elevation factor plus how young their core is.

That split has largely held true in the playoffs. Here’s how these teams have performed at home vs. on the road:

Nuggets: +8.3 Net Rating at home, -5.6 on the roadBlazers: +6.5 Net Rating at home, -4.8 on the road

The issue, of course, is that Bookmakers certainly know this trend, and they adjust the spread accordingly. The Blazers were -4 in Game 6 in Portland, and now this Game 7 line is Nuggets -5.5.

Even still, it seems that bettors believe in the Nuggets: They’re getting 59% of the bets as of Saturday afternoon and 62% of the money wagered. It has historically been profitable to buy favorites getting more money than bets (per Bet Labs):

104-53 (66%l

That said, Evan’s trend about playoff experience is incredibly compelling. Diving further into that, favorites and home teams (the same sample) have gone 0-5 historically in that spot. If the Nuggets cover, they’ll be the first team since at least 2005 to do so.


There are also reasons to believe in the Blazers: In this second round, they’ve led all teams in percentage of “open shots” — a defender 4-6 feet away. They’ve hit just 33.1% of those attempts, however. Damian Lillard was good in Games 1 and 6 but struggled in the others thanks to excellent defense from the Nuggets’ perimeter defenders. He’s personally shooting just 28% on open shots in this series, and we know he’s always a candidate to take over a game, especially in the clutch.

As such, I don’t have a strong opinion on the side, but I do think there could be value on the total. In the playoffs, it has been profitable to fade the public on totals, and the public is on the over here.

89-62 (59%)


That matches with the broad trend John Ewing found here that Game 7s tend to be tight and go under. Like above, if the majority of bets are on the over, the under does even better, hitting at a 59.9% rate. These teams are very familiar with each other; there aren’t many adjustments to be made at this point.

The best value might be found in the second half, though. I wrote extensively about them here, and interestingly the second half totals have matched the first half totals in every game but that OT one. If the first half has gone over, the second half has, too. And vice versa.

And to tie a bow on that experience trend: In Game 7s since 2005, if one of the teams didn’t make the postseason the year before, the under is 8-4.








The Raptors opened as 6.5-point favorites in Game 7. Since 2005, the chalk in winner-take-all showdowns has gone 25-20 against the spread. Teams favored by more than three points have gone 25-14 (64%) ATS. — John Ewing

Both the Raptors and Nuggets lost by double digits in Game 6 and now have an uphill battle in Game 7. Since 2013-14, teams who lose by double-digits in Game 6 are 10-14 (41.7%) ATS in Game 7. — Evan Abrams

The Sixers escaped with a win on the road in Toronto in Game 2, breaking a 14-game road losing streak north of the border. Since 2012-13, the Sixers are 2-15 SU and 5-12 ATS in Toronto, failing to cover the spread by 6.9 points per game.


Trends-wise, though, things currently favor the Raptors. Teams getting sharp money have done well historically in the playoffs (per Bet Labs)

66-27 (71%)

And that’s been especially true of favorites this year. Those matching the below trend have gone 17-6 ATS this season:

104-53 (66%)
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