Go Back   Sports Handicapping at cappersmall > >

NBA Basketball NBA Handicapping - Post your NBA picks, talk NBA betting, anything NBA.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #201  
Old 05-14-2019, 05:26 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 96,566
Rewards: 37,837
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1720
Likes (Received): 4721
Did you know? Stephen Curry is averaging 27.5 PPG in his career against the Blazers, his highest average against any Western Conference opponent and third-highest scoring average against any team, behind just the Wizards and Raptors. When Steph shifts to Portland, he is averaging 29.5 PPG on the road, his highest road scoring average with a minimum 10 games played. – Evan Abrams

The last time Golden State saw Portland this season, the Blazers were stomping the champs, especially in the fourth quarter, when they outscored the Warriors 35-12 en route to a 129-107 win. Under Steve Kerr, the Warriors are 66-47 ATS (58.4%) when facing an opponent they previously lost to; if they lost by 20 points or more, they are 14-8 ATS (63.6%) in the next game, covering by 4.6 points per game. – Abrams

Over the last three seasons, the Warriors have played 34 total games without Kevin Durant but with Steph Curry. Golden State is 30-4 straight-up and 22-12 ATS, winning on average by 12.3 points per game.


In the 41 games without Durant since 2016, the under is 27-14 (65.9%). When Durant is out and Curry is in, the under is 23-11 (67.7%), going under the total by 7.5 points per game. – Abrams

It has been profitable to bet favorites late the playoffs. Since 2005, the chalk is 127-113-1 (52.9%) ATS in the Conference and NBA Finals. Large favorites of six or more points, like the Warriors in Game 1, have been even more profitable, going 53-38 (58.2%) ATS. – John Ewing

A majority of spread tickets are on the Blazers in Game 1. In the Steve Kerr era, the Warriors are 13-3 ATS when they get less than 50% of bets, covering the spread by 7.9 points per game.
Reply With Quote
  #202  
Old 05-14-2019, 06:43 PM
secondbase secondbase is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 86,472
Rewards: 148,751
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 11613
Likes (Received): 11067
curry might tag em for 40 tonight
__________________
2nd Place 2010 MLB 2nd half Contest
3rd Place 2010 Capper of The Year
Co Good guy of the Year award 2010
Poster of the Month Award Winner
2009 Co Champ World Series Contest
January 2012 Play of the Day winner
Bracket Buster Survivor 2nd Place
2012 Cappersmall Hall of Fame inductee
2014 PGA Golf Season 1st place
2014 PGA Golf Season Money List 3rd place
2014 LMS Point Spread contest runner up
2016 Golf Team contest 1st place
Reply With Quote
  #203  
Old 05-15-2019, 08:12 AM
secondbase secondbase is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 86,472
Rewards: 148,751
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 11613
Likes (Received): 11067
Quote:
Originally Posted by secondbase View Post
curry might tag em for 40 tonight
well not quite 40
__________________
2nd Place 2010 MLB 2nd half Contest
3rd Place 2010 Capper of The Year
Co Good guy of the Year award 2010
Poster of the Month Award Winner
2009 Co Champ World Series Contest
January 2012 Play of the Day winner
Bracket Buster Survivor 2nd Place
2012 Cappersmall Hall of Fame inductee
2014 PGA Golf Season 1st place
2014 PGA Golf Season Money List 3rd place
2014 LMS Point Spread contest runner up
2016 Golf Team contest 1st place
Reply With Quote
  #204  
Old 05-15-2019, 04:55 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 96,566
Rewards: 37,837
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1720
Likes (Received): 4721
In the Conference Semifinals against the Sixers, Toronto exorcised some of its Game 1 demons by beating Philly 108-95 as a 6.5-point favorite. Still a good reminder: Toronto is 4-13 against-the-spread (ATS) in Game 1 of playoff series in franchise history, including 1-6 straight-up on the road. Since the 2014 playoffs, the Raptors are 2-9 ATS in Game 1s, failing to cover the spread by 9.7 points per game. – Evan Abrams

Did You Know? The Raptors and Bucks enter the Conference Finals both with a win percentage of 70% or higher — one of the most anticipated Conference Finals in the East in some time. In fact, it is the first Eastern Conference Finals with two teams at that win threshold since the 2011 Finals between the Bulls and Heat, a series won by the favored Heat in five games. – Abrams

The Bucks (-310) are favored to beat the Raptors in the Eastern Conference Finals. In the last decade, only two series underdogs have won a Conference Finals (2-18 overall): the 2012 Oklahoma City Thunder (+175) over the San Antonio Spurs and the 2010 Boston Celtics (+220) over the Orlando Magic. Both teams failed to win an NBA title that season. – Abrams

The Bucks eliminated the Celtics in five games last Wednesday. Milwaukee has had seven days to prepare for the start of the Eastern Conference finals. The extra rest should be a benefit to Giannis & Co.: Since 2005, home teams in the playoffs with at least four days between games have gone 103-60 (63.4%) ATS.
Reply With Quote
  #205  
Old 05-17-2019, 03:36 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 96,566
Rewards: 37,837
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1720
Likes (Received): 4721
Betting Trends to Know

The Bucks are a high-volume 3-point shooting team. Milwaukee averaged 38.2 attempts per game from behind the arc in the regular season, second only to Houston. The Bucks got up 44 three-pointers in Game 1, but made only 11 (25.0%).

It is likely they will make a higher percentage in Game 2, as the team shot 35.3% this season. Since 2005, teams that won the previous game despite connecting on 25% or less of their 3s have gone 62-57-4 against the spread in the playoffs. Those teams have gone 36-24-2 (60%) ATS when favored in the next game. — John Ewing

Did you know? The Bucks were the most profitable team in the regular season with a 47-31-4 ATS record. That has carried over to the postseason, as Milwaukee is 9-1 ATS, covering by an average of 6.6 PPG. — Ewing

As John noted, the Bucks have been the most profitable team in the playoffs by a wide margin. Entering Game 2, Milwaukee has won and covered the spread in five consecutive games since its only loss of the playoffs against the Celtics.

Since 2005, teams that have won and covered at least five straight entering a game in the Conference Finals or NBA Finals are just 4-9 straight-up and 3-10 ATS, failing to cover by 7.8 points per game. — Evan Abrams

Talk about a bad time for a slump: The Raptors have shot under 40% from the field in consecutive games for just the second time this season. The first time was back in early January against the Magic and Bulls before facing the Jazz at home. In that game against Utah, the Raptors scored 122 points on 54.9% shooting from the field.
Reply With Quote
  #206  
Old 05-17-2019, 06:41 PM
secondbase secondbase is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Wentzville, Mo
Posts: 86,472
Rewards: 148,751
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 11613
Likes (Received): 11067
so Mil tonight ?
__________________
2nd Place 2010 MLB 2nd half Contest
3rd Place 2010 Capper of The Year
Co Good guy of the Year award 2010
Poster of the Month Award Winner
2009 Co Champ World Series Contest
January 2012 Play of the Day winner
Bracket Buster Survivor 2nd Place
2012 Cappersmall Hall of Fame inductee
2014 PGA Golf Season 1st place
2014 PGA Golf Season Money List 3rd place
2014 LMS Point Spread contest runner up
2016 Golf Team contest 1st place
Reply With Quote
  #207  
Old 05-18-2019, 09:46 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 96,566
Rewards: 37,837
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1720
Likes (Received): 4721
Betting Trends to Know

This is just the 10th playoff game under Steve Kerr that Golden State has been an underdog. The Warriors went 5-4 straight up and against the spread in the previous nine. — John Ewing

Since 2005, teams that lost the first two games of a series then are favored in Game 3 (like the Blazers) have gone 37-27-3 ATS. — Ewing

In the Warriors’ 18 playoff series under Kerr (not including the current one), they’ve won at least one game SU and ATS on the road. — Evan Abrams

Since acquiring Kevin Durant in 2016, the Warriors are 5-4 SU and ATS in nine games as an underdog without him in the lineup, but are 3-0 SU and ATS this season, covering the spread by an average of 14.2 points per game. All three of those games have been on the road.

Steph Curry played in five of those nine games as a dog without Durant, in which the Warriors are 5-0 SU and ATS, covering the spread by 13.6 PPG.
Reply With Quote
  #208  
Old 05-18-2019, 09:47 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 96,566
Rewards: 37,837
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1720
Likes (Received): 4721
Quote:
Originally Posted by goldengreek View Post
Betting Trends to Know

This is just the 10th playoff game under Steve Kerr that Golden State has been an underdog. The Warriors went 5-4 straight up and against the spread in the previous nine. — John Ewing

Since 2005, teams that lost the first two games of a series then are favored in Game 3 (like the Blazers) have gone 37-27-3 ATS. — Ewing

In the Warriors’ 18 playoff series under Kerr (not including the current one), they’ve won at least one game SU and ATS on the road. — Evan Abrams

Since acquiring Kevin Durant in 2016, the Warriors are 5-4 SU and ATS in nine games as an underdog without him in the lineup, but are 3-0 SU and ATS this season, covering the spread by an average of 14.2 points per game. All three of those games have been on the road.

Steph Curry played in five of those nine games as a dog without Durant, in which the Warriors are 5-0 SU and ATS, covering the spread by 13.6 PPG.

For both game 3s



Home teams down 0-2


it has been profitable over time to bet those teams on the first-half spread: They’ve gone 124-80-5 (60.8%) ATS, good for a 16.2% Return on Investment.

If those teams have lost each of the first two games, they are even more valuable:

75-36-1. (68 %)

Those teams have hit at a 67.6% rate historically, good for a 29.0% ROI! It’s been consistently profitable over time, too. In fact, they’ve gone a ridiculous 24-4 ATS over the last three postseasons.

But let’s not stop there.

A lot of these teams are actually getting plus-money odds on the first-half moneyline, meaning it has been very profitable to bet them in that regard in Game 3s:

37-13 (74%)

If those teams are down 0-2 in the series, they’re 37-13, good for a stupid 38.7% ROI. They’ve won the first half by an average of 4.12 points. First-half d
Reply With Quote
  #209  
Old 05-19-2019, 10:24 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 96,566
Rewards: 37,837
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1720
Likes (Received): 4721
Quote:
Originally Posted by goldengreek View Post
For both game 3s



Home teams down 0-2


it has been profitable over time to bet those teams on the first-half spread: They’ve gone 124-80-5 (60.8%) ATS, good for a 16.2% Return on Investment.

If those teams have lost each of the first two games, they are even more valuable:

75-36-1. (68 %)

Those teams have hit at a 67.6% rate historically, good for a 29.0% ROI! It’s been consistently profitable over time, too. In fact, they’ve gone a ridiculous 24-4 ATS over the last three postseasons.

But let’s not stop there.

A lot of these teams are actually getting plus-money odds on the first-half moneyline, meaning it has been very profitable to bet them in that regard in Game 3s:

37-13 (74%)

If those teams are down 0-2 in the series, they’re 37-13, good for a stupid 38.7% ROI. They’ve won the first half by an average of 4.12 points. First-half d

29-6 now....Toronto tonight
Reply With Quote
  #210  
Old 05-19-2019, 01:28 PM
Tide8577 Tide8577 is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: Alabama
Posts: 422
Rewards: 1,853
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 198
Likes (Received): 102
I just read over this and having to move my daughter so....

Quote:
Originally Posted by goldengreek View Post
29-6 now....Toronto tonight
Just wanted to make sure I am reading correctly, Play Toronto 1st half?
Reply With Quote
  #211  
Old 05-19-2019, 01:29 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 96,566
Rewards: 37,837
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1720
Likes (Received): 4721
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tide8577 View Post
Just wanted to make sure I am reading correctly, Play Toronto 1st half?
Yes
Reply With Quote
  #212  
Old 05-19-2019, 01:30 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 96,566
Rewards: 37,837
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1720
Likes (Received): 4721
The Raptors return home in an 0-2 hole. Oddsmakers list Toronto as a favorite in Game 3, but a majority of spread tickets are on Milwaukee. It has been profitable to bet unpopular favorites in the NBA Playoffs since 2005.

145-111 (57%)


The Raptors were blown out in Game 2 by 22 points. Can Toronto bounce back? Since 2005, home favorites that lost their previous game by double digits have gone 115-81-5 (59%) against the spread in the playoffs. — Ewing

The Bucks are simply dominating in the 2019 NBA playoffs. They are 10-1 ATS, beating opponents by 7.4 points per game. Since 2005, there have been numerous teams in the playoffs that had a win rate of 70% or higher and an average scoring margin of 10-plus PPG in their last 10 games … but just a handful were listed as an underdog, like the Bucks in Game 3.

Teams with that profile and listed as an underdog are just 5-13-1 ATS (27.8%) in the playoffs, failing to cover the spread by 5.3 points per game. When those teams are favored, they are 63-49-1 ATS (56.3%). — Evan Abrams

The Bucks are 8-4 straight up and 9-3 ATS when listed as an underdog this season. Three of the 12 games the Bucks were listed as underdogs have come against the Raptors entering Game 3 in Toronto:

Jan. 31, 2019: Bucks (+2.5) win in Toronto (105-92)
Dec. 9, 2018: Bucks (+4.5) win in Toronto (104-99)
Oct. 29, 2018: Bucks (+2) win at home vs. Toronto (123-108) –– Abrams

The Raptors head home down 2-0 in the series against the Bucks. Since 2005, teams that are down 0-2 heading home for Game 3 are 79-38-1 (67.5%) against the first-half spread; they are 28-6 (82.4%) in this spot over the last four seasons. —
Reply With Quote
  #213  
Old 05-20-2019, 10:49 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 96,566
Rewards: 37,837
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1720
Likes (Received): 4721
Monday night will be the ninth potential sweep opportunity for the Warriors under Steve Kerr. The Warriors are 5-3 straight up and against the spread in those games, but their spread of -3.5 is the lowest of any of those previous eight road games. — Evan Abrams

The Warriors enter Game 4 in Portland with a chance to sweep the Blazers. Golden State has won five consecutive games entering this potential sweep opportunity after closing out the Rockets in six games in the Western Conference Semifinals.

Since 2005, teams that are on at least a five-game winning streak entering Game 4 with an opportunity to sweep are 26-11 SU and 20-15-2 ATS. The Warriors have been in this spot six times and are 4-2 SU and ATS, with their two losses coming against the Cavaliers and Rockets. — Abrams

Remember the very profitable first-half trend on the Blazers in Game 3? Well, that angle disappears when teams go down 0-3 at home in Game 4. Those teams are 29-25-1 (53.7%) against the first-half spread. Compare that to the 79-38-1 (67.5%) record in Game 3s when teams are down just 0-2.

The one first-half trend going in the Blazers’ favor? In the regular season and playoffs under Terry Stotts, Portland is 43-28-1 (60.6%) against the first-half spread at home after losing at home in its previous game. Stotts is the second-most profitable coach in the Bet Labs database in this spot behind just George Karl. –– Abrams

The Blazers blew a 13-point halftime lead in Game 3 and are now down 0-3 to the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals. What should bettors expect from Portland on the verge of being swept? Since 2005, teams down 0-3 have gone 21-41 SU and 25-34-3 ATS in Game 4.
Reply With Quote
  #214  
Old 05-21-2019, 02:15 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 96,566
Rewards: 37,837
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1720
Likes (Received): 4721
Did you know? Overtime is where unders go to die. The Bucks-Raptors Game 3 total closed at 222. At the end of regulation, the teams had combined to score 192 points, but after double-overtime the over cashed. Since 2005, the over is 1,530-312-28 in overtime games and 332-6 when the game goes to two overtimes. – John Ewing

The Raptors are 2.5-point underdogs at home in Game 4. This is the first time in the playoffs Toronto has been a home dog this year. The Raptors went 9-8 SU and 10-7 ATS as an underdog in the regular season, including 1-2 SU and ATS as a dog to the Bucks. – Ewing

The Bucks lost Game 3 on the road against the Raptors. This season, no team has been better off a loss than Milwaukee. The Bucks are 22-1 straight-up (+15 point differential) and 19-4 ATS (+7.2 point differential) after a loss this season; they’re the most profitable team ATS in that spot. The Bucks are also 10-1 SU and ATS on the road after a loss this year, with their only loss coming against the Suns. – Evan Abrams

The Bucks led the NBA in Defensive Rating during the regular season this year, allowing 104.9 points per 100 possessions. In Game 3, the Bucks allowed 118 points on the road against the Raptors, the most points Milwaukee has allowed in the playoffs (though it did take two overtimes for Toronto to get there).

This season, the Bucks are 20-6 (76.9%) ATS after allowing 115 points or more in their previous game, covering the spread by 6.0 points per game.



Milwaukee opened as a short two-point road favorite for tonight’s pivotal Game 4 in Toronto. Currently 70% of spread bets and 80% of spread dollars are laying the points with Giannis and company. This heavily lopsided action has forced oddsmakers to move the Bucks from -2 to -3.

The Bucks also match several profitable Bet Labs historical systems. Since 2015, favorites in the NBA playoffs getting more money than bets have gone 98-53 ATS (64.9%), winning +40 units with a 26.3% ROI and 3.31-point cover margin. This season, they’ve gone 16-7 ATS (70%).

If the favorite is getting more money than bets and also has line movement in their favor (Bucks -2 to -3 tonight), they’ve gone 55-37 ATS (59.8%) since 2015, including 10-3 ATS (77%) this postseason.
Reply With Quote
  #215  
Old 05-23-2019, 04:20 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 96,566
Rewards: 37,837
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1720
Likes (Received): 4721
The Bucks lost Game 4 by 18 points. This is just the seventh time the Bucks lost a game by 10 or more points this season. Following the previous six occurrences, the Bucks went 6-0 against the spread, covering by 12.8 points per game. — John Ewing

History suggests the Bucks will bounce back in Game 5. Since 2005, teams that are favored at home in the playoffs after losing their previous game by at least 10 points have returned a profit of $2,960 for a $100 bettor. This system has been even more profitable in the Conference and NBA Finals, going 25-11 (69%) ATS.


116-81 (59%)


For just the second time during the 2018-19 season, the Milwaukee Bucks have lost consecutive games. It last occurred back in March on the road against the Jazz and Suns. In their next game, the Bucks returned home and beat the Pacers 117-98 as a 10-point favorite. — Evan Abrams

The Raptors have won two straight games against the Bucks to even up the Eastern Conference Finals. In Game 5, the Raptors are listed as seven-point underdogs on the road in Milwaukee.

Since 2005, teams that have won at least two consecutive games entering a playoff game and are listed as an underdog in their next game are 142-184-8 (43.6%) ATS, failing to cover by an average of 1.8 points per game. When the next game played is Games 5-7 of a playoff series, the team on the two-game-plus winning streak is 31-48-1 (39.2%) ATS, failing to cover by 3.5 points per game
Reply With Quote
  #216  
Old 05-30-2019, 06:43 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 96,566
Rewards: 37,837
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1720
Likes (Received): 4721
There is lopsided action on the Warriors in Game 1 as more than 70% of bettors are taking Golden State +1. Since 2005, teams receiving 50% or more of bets in the NBA Finals have gone 34-48-1 (42%) against the spread while squads getting 60% or more of bets have gone 5-12 (29%) ATS. — John Ewing

A majority of spread tickets are on the Warriors, but the line has moved from Raptors +1 to -1. When the line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages this is called reverse line movement and is an indication of sharp action. Since 2005, when a team receives 40% or less of bets but the line moves in their direction, like with the Raptors, they have gone 69-53-3 (57%) ATS in the playoffs



The Warriors are 18-1 straight up and 11-8 against the spread in Game 1s of a playoff series under Steve Kerr. Their only playoff loss came against the Thunder in 2016. If the Warriors close as underdogs in Game 1, it will be just the second time in 19 Game 1s happening last in the 2018 Western Conference Finals against the Rockets, a 119-106 Warriors road win. — Evan Abrams

No Kevin Durant? No problem. The Warriors are 34-4 straight up and 24-13-1 against the spread with Stephen Curry in the lineup, but without KD since 2016, winning 31 of their last 32 games overall. — Abrams

The Raptors are currently 1-point home favorites around the market against the Warriors in Game 1 of the Finals. Since the NBA-ABA merger in 1976-77, no team has been listed as a home underdog in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. The closest calls came back in 1982 and 1985, when the Sixers and Celtics were 1-point home favorites against Pat Riley and the Lakers. — Abrams

Did You Know? The Warriors play Games 1 and 2 of the Finals on the road for the first time in their five-year playoff run. In their 19 total playoff series under Steve Kerr, the Warriors have won and covered at least one game both straight up and against the spread on the road in the playoffs.




There’s some sharp money on the under, as it’s getting just 42% of the bets but 71% of the money. As a result, it’s moved down from 215 at open to 213.5 as of Wednesday evening.

That’s a pretty low number, but I think it’s warranted, and I think the best value can be found on the first-half total. Overall, NBA Finals first-half unders have gone 43-33-4 since 2004, and they’ve gone 9-5 specifically in Game 1s. That meshes with how I think this overall series will go.

The Raptors are probably the best defensive team the Warriors have faced in their dynasty-like run. They have multiple defenders to throw at Curry, including Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Green and even Leonard if needed. VanVleet was actually the best on him in the regular season, holding him to just four total points on 39 total possessions. He’s great at fighting through screens, which is crucial when defending Curry.

Green and Leonard are as good as defenders as you could want on Klay Thompson, and all of these guys are excellent help defenders — as are Pascal Siakam and Marc Gasol, who will round out the starting five. The Warriors are favorites for a reason, but they’ll really have to earn it in this series on the offensive end.

On the Raptors’ side, I think there’s something to the Game 1 jitters narrative, especially in the first half. Kawhi and Green have experience and may be fine, but the rest of the players are new to this experience, and they’ll carry the weight of the franchise’s first ever NBA Finals game — and it’s in Toronto. I think the Raptors are rightfully at a pick’em or favored, but I think the offense could struggle to start off quickly in the first half.

Given all of those factors, I think the first-half under is my favorite bet of the game, although I would note that these lines are very solid. This is a heavily-bet game for obvious reasons, so grinding out a long-term profit on these efficient lines is going to be tough. It might be wiser to look toward the prop market for bigger edges





GS ML with 3 or more days rest 15-1 for last 3 seasons.
GS ML in playoff games 40-8 for last 3 seasons.
GS ML 30-1 with KD out and Curry in.


BUT


Game 1 NBA finals home teams are 13-1 SU over the last 14 years, and 12-2 ATS.
Reply With Quote
  #217  
Old 05-30-2019, 07:04 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 96,566
Rewards: 37,837
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1720
Likes (Received): 4721
Quote:
Originally Posted by goldengreek View Post
There is lopsided action on the Warriors in Game 1 as more than 70% of bettors are taking Golden State +1. Since 2005, teams receiving 50% or more of bets in the NBA Finals have gone 34-48-1 (42%) against the spread while squads getting 60% or more of bets have gone 5-12 (29%) ATS. — John Ewing

A majority of spread tickets are on the Warriors, but the line has moved from Raptors +1 to -1. When the line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages this is called reverse line movement and is an indication of sharp action. Since 2005, when a team receives 40% or less of bets but the line moves in their direction, like with the Raptors, they have gone 69-53-3 (57%) ATS in the playoffs



The Warriors are 18-1 straight up and 11-8 against the spread in Game 1s of a playoff series under Steve Kerr. Their only playoff loss came against the Thunder in 2016. If the Warriors close as underdogs in Game 1, it will be just the second time in 19 Game 1s happening last in the 2018 Western Conference Finals against the Rockets, a 119-106 Warriors road win. — Evan Abrams

No Kevin Durant? No problem. The Warriors are 34-4 straight up and 24-13-1 against the spread with Stephen Curry in the lineup, but without KD since 2016, winning 31 of their last 32 games overall. — Abrams

The Raptors are currently 1-point home favorites around the market against the Warriors in Game 1 of the Finals. Since the NBA-ABA merger in 1976-77, no team has been listed as a home underdog in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. The closest calls came back in 1982 and 1985, when the Sixers and Celtics were 1-point home favorites against Pat Riley and the Lakers. — Abrams

Did You Know? The Warriors play Games 1 and 2 of the Finals on the road for the first time in their five-year playoff run. In their 19 total playoff series under Steve Kerr, the Warriors have won and covered at least one game both straight up and against the spread on the road in the playoffs.




There’s some sharp money on the under, as it’s getting just 42% of the bets but 71% of the money. As a result, it’s moved down from 215 at open to 213.5 as of Wednesday evening.

That’s a pretty low number, but I think it’s warranted, and I think the best value can be found on the first-half total. Overall, NBA Finals first-half unders have gone 43-33-4 since 2004, and they’ve gone 9-5 specifically in Game 1s. That meshes with how I think this overall series will go.

The Raptors are probably the best defensive team the Warriors have faced in their dynasty-like run. They have multiple defenders to throw at Curry, including Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Green and even Leonard if needed. VanVleet was actually the best on him in the regular season, holding him to just four total points on 39 total possessions. He’s great at fighting through screens, which is crucial when defending Curry.

Green and Leonard are as good as defenders as you could want on Klay Thompson, and all of these guys are excellent help defenders — as are Pascal Siakam and Marc Gasol, who will round out the starting five. The Warriors are favorites for a reason, but they’ll really have to earn it in this series on the offensive end.

On the Raptors’ side, I think there’s something to the Game 1 jitters narrative, especially in the first half. Kawhi and Green have experience and may be fine, but the rest of the players are new to this experience, and they’ll carry the weight of the franchise’s first ever NBA Finals game — and it’s in Toronto. I think the Raptors are rightfully at a pick’em or favored, but I think the offense could struggle to start off quickly in the first half.

Given all of those factors, I think the first-half under is my favorite bet of the game, although I would note that these lines are very solid. This is a heavily-bet game for obvious reasons, so grinding out a long-term profit on these efficient lines is going to be tough. It might be wiser to look toward the prop market for bigger edges





GS ML with 3 or more days rest 15-1 for last 3 seasons.
GS ML in playoff games 40-8 for last 3 seasons.
GS ML 30-1 with KD out and Curry in.


BUT


Game 1 NBA finals home teams are 13-1 SU over the last 14 years, and 12-2 ATS.

Since 2005, HF of 2.5 or less:

72-41 SU (64%)
68-44-1 ATS (61%)


47-61-5 O/U (56 U).
Reply With Quote
  #218  
Old 06-05-2019, 03:52 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 96,566
Rewards: 37,837
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1720
Likes (Received): 4721
NBA playoff GM3 thru 6 home faves are 23-4 1H ML this season.
__________________
Likes fat-freddie liked this post
Reply With Quote
  #219  
Old 06-05-2019, 04:39 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: CHI-TOWN
Posts: 96,566
Rewards: 37,837
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1720
Likes (Received): 4721
Quote:
Originally Posted by goldengreek View Post
NBA playoff GM3 thru 6 home faves are 23-4 1H ML this season.
For the first time in the NBA Finals, the spread ticket percentages are favoring the Raptors. As of Tuesday evening, the Warriors are receiving 35% of the betting tickets in Game 3. Under Steve Kerr, the Warriors have closed with under 50% of betting tickets 18 times in the playoffs. They are 18-0 straight-up and 15-3 against-the-spread (ATS) in those spots, covering by 8.6 points per game. – Evan Abrams

The Warriors trailed at the half of both Games 1 and 2 against the Raptors. The last 12 times the Warriors have trailed at the half of a playoff game, they are 11-0-1 straight-up on the second-half moneyline and 8-3-1 against the second-half spread. – Abrams

The Warriors are coming off one of their patented 30-plus assist playoff games, which they lead the NBA in since 2014-15. Under Kerr, Golden State is 24-3 straight-up and 18-9 ATS in the playoffs after a 30-plus assist game. – Abrams

As the NBA Finals shifts to Oracle Arena, take note: Under Kerr, the Warriors are 37-18 (67.3%) ATS at home in the regular season and playoffs when facing a team with a win rate of 66% or highe
__________________
Likes fat-freddie liked this post
Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
assigned, garretson, o/u, refs, season

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 06:50 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Resources saved on this page: MySQL 15.79% Host: cappersmallweb3