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  #201  
Old 05-14-2019, 04:26 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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Did you know? Stephen Curry is averaging 27.5 PPG in his career against the Blazers, his highest average against any Western Conference opponent and third-highest scoring average against any team, behind just the Wizards and Raptors. When Steph shifts to Portland, he is averaging 29.5 PPG on the road, his highest road scoring average with a minimum 10 games played. – Evan Abrams

The last time Golden State saw Portland this season, the Blazers were stomping the champs, especially in the fourth quarter, when they outscored the Warriors 35-12 en route to a 129-107 win. Under Steve Kerr, the Warriors are 66-47 ATS (58.4%) when facing an opponent they previously lost to; if they lost by 20 points or more, they are 14-8 ATS (63.6%) in the next game, covering by 4.6 points per game. – Abrams

Over the last three seasons, the Warriors have played 34 total games without Kevin Durant but with Steph Curry. Golden State is 30-4 straight-up and 22-12 ATS, winning on average by 12.3 points per game.


In the 41 games without Durant since 2016, the under is 27-14 (65.9%). When Durant is out and Curry is in, the under is 23-11 (67.7%), going under the total by 7.5 points per game. – Abrams

It has been profitable to bet favorites late the playoffs. Since 2005, the chalk is 127-113-1 (52.9%) ATS in the Conference and NBA Finals. Large favorites of six or more points, like the Warriors in Game 1, have been even more profitable, going 53-38 (58.2%) ATS. – John Ewing

A majority of spread tickets are on the Blazers in Game 1. In the Steve Kerr era, the Warriors are 13-3 ATS when they get less than 50% of bets, covering the spread by 7.9 points per game.
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  #202  
Old 05-14-2019, 05:43 PM
secondbase secondbase is online now
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curry might tag em for 40 tonight
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  #203  
Old 05-15-2019, 07:12 AM
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curry might tag em for 40 tonight
well not quite 40
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  #204  
Old 05-15-2019, 03:55 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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In the Conference Semifinals against the Sixers, Toronto exorcised some of its Game 1 demons by beating Philly 108-95 as a 6.5-point favorite. Still a good reminder: Toronto is 4-13 against-the-spread (ATS) in Game 1 of playoff series in franchise history, including 1-6 straight-up on the road. Since the 2014 playoffs, the Raptors are 2-9 ATS in Game 1s, failing to cover the spread by 9.7 points per game. – Evan Abrams

Did You Know? The Raptors and Bucks enter the Conference Finals both with a win percentage of 70% or higher — one of the most anticipated Conference Finals in the East in some time. In fact, it is the first Eastern Conference Finals with two teams at that win threshold since the 2011 Finals between the Bulls and Heat, a series won by the favored Heat in five games. – Abrams

The Bucks (-310) are favored to beat the Raptors in the Eastern Conference Finals. In the last decade, only two series underdogs have won a Conference Finals (2-18 overall): the 2012 Oklahoma City Thunder (+175) over the San Antonio Spurs and the 2010 Boston Celtics (+220) over the Orlando Magic. Both teams failed to win an NBA title that season. – Abrams

The Bucks eliminated the Celtics in five games last Wednesday. Milwaukee has had seven days to prepare for the start of the Eastern Conference finals. The extra rest should be a benefit to Giannis & Co.: Since 2005, home teams in the playoffs with at least four days between games have gone 103-60 (63.4%) ATS.
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  #205  
Old 05-17-2019, 02:36 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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Betting Trends to Know

The Bucks are a high-volume 3-point shooting team. Milwaukee averaged 38.2 attempts per game from behind the arc in the regular season, second only to Houston. The Bucks got up 44 three-pointers in Game 1, but made only 11 (25.0%).

It is likely they will make a higher percentage in Game 2, as the team shot 35.3% this season. Since 2005, teams that won the previous game despite connecting on 25% or less of their 3s have gone 62-57-4 against the spread in the playoffs. Those teams have gone 36-24-2 (60%) ATS when favored in the next game. — John Ewing

Did you know? The Bucks were the most profitable team in the regular season with a 47-31-4 ATS record. That has carried over to the postseason, as Milwaukee is 9-1 ATS, covering by an average of 6.6 PPG. — Ewing

As John noted, the Bucks have been the most profitable team in the playoffs by a wide margin. Entering Game 2, Milwaukee has won and covered the spread in five consecutive games since its only loss of the playoffs against the Celtics.

Since 2005, teams that have won and covered at least five straight entering a game in the Conference Finals or NBA Finals are just 4-9 straight-up and 3-10 ATS, failing to cover by 7.8 points per game. — Evan Abrams

Talk about a bad time for a slump: The Raptors have shot under 40% from the field in consecutive games for just the second time this season. The first time was back in early January against the Magic and Bulls before facing the Jazz at home. In that game against Utah, the Raptors scored 122 points on 54.9% shooting from the field.
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  #206  
Old 05-17-2019, 05:41 PM
secondbase secondbase is online now
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so Mil tonight ?
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  #207  
Old 05-18-2019, 08:46 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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Betting Trends to Know

This is just the 10th playoff game under Steve Kerr that Golden State has been an underdog. The Warriors went 5-4 straight up and against the spread in the previous nine. — John Ewing

Since 2005, teams that lost the first two games of a series then are favored in Game 3 (like the Blazers) have gone 37-27-3 ATS. — Ewing

In the Warriors’ 18 playoff series under Kerr (not including the current one), they’ve won at least one game SU and ATS on the road. — Evan Abrams

Since acquiring Kevin Durant in 2016, the Warriors are 5-4 SU and ATS in nine games as an underdog without him in the lineup, but are 3-0 SU and ATS this season, covering the spread by an average of 14.2 points per game. All three of those games have been on the road.

Steph Curry played in five of those nine games as a dog without Durant, in which the Warriors are 5-0 SU and ATS, covering the spread by 13.6 PPG.
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  #208  
Old 05-18-2019, 08:47 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goldengreek View Post
Betting Trends to Know

This is just the 10th playoff game under Steve Kerr that Golden State has been an underdog. The Warriors went 5-4 straight up and against the spread in the previous nine. — John Ewing

Since 2005, teams that lost the first two games of a series then are favored in Game 3 (like the Blazers) have gone 37-27-3 ATS. — Ewing

In the Warriors’ 18 playoff series under Kerr (not including the current one), they’ve won at least one game SU and ATS on the road. — Evan Abrams

Since acquiring Kevin Durant in 2016, the Warriors are 5-4 SU and ATS in nine games as an underdog without him in the lineup, but are 3-0 SU and ATS this season, covering the spread by an average of 14.2 points per game. All three of those games have been on the road.

Steph Curry played in five of those nine games as a dog without Durant, in which the Warriors are 5-0 SU and ATS, covering the spread by 13.6 PPG.

For both game 3s



Home teams down 0-2


it has been profitable over time to bet those teams on the first-half spread: They’ve gone 124-80-5 (60.8%) ATS, good for a 16.2% Return on Investment.

If those teams have lost each of the first two games, they are even more valuable:

75-36-1. (68 %)

Those teams have hit at a 67.6% rate historically, good for a 29.0% ROI! It’s been consistently profitable over time, too. In fact, they’ve gone a ridiculous 24-4 ATS over the last three postseasons.

But let’s not stop there.

A lot of these teams are actually getting plus-money odds on the first-half moneyline, meaning it has been very profitable to bet them in that regard in Game 3s:

37-13 (74%)

If those teams are down 0-2 in the series, they’re 37-13, good for a stupid 38.7% ROI. They’ve won the first half by an average of 4.12 points. First-half d
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  #209  
Old 05-19-2019, 09:24 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by goldengreek View Post
For both game 3s



Home teams down 0-2


it has been profitable over time to bet those teams on the first-half spread: They’ve gone 124-80-5 (60.8%) ATS, good for a 16.2% Return on Investment.

If those teams have lost each of the first two games, they are even more valuable:

75-36-1. (68 %)

Those teams have hit at a 67.6% rate historically, good for a 29.0% ROI! It’s been consistently profitable over time, too. In fact, they’ve gone a ridiculous 24-4 ATS over the last three postseasons.

But let’s not stop there.

A lot of these teams are actually getting plus-money odds on the first-half moneyline, meaning it has been very profitable to bet them in that regard in Game 3s:

37-13 (74%)

If those teams are down 0-2 in the series, they’re 37-13, good for a stupid 38.7% ROI. They’ve won the first half by an average of 4.12 points. First-half d

29-6 now....Toronto tonight
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  #210  
Old 05-19-2019, 12:28 PM
Tide8577 Tide8577 is offline
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I just read over this and having to move my daughter so....

Quote:
Originally Posted by goldengreek View Post
29-6 now....Toronto tonight
Just wanted to make sure I am reading correctly, Play Toronto 1st half?
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  #211  
Old 05-19-2019, 12:29 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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Quote:
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Just wanted to make sure I am reading correctly, Play Toronto 1st half?
Yes
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  #212  
Old 05-19-2019, 12:30 PM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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The Raptors return home in an 0-2 hole. Oddsmakers list Toronto as a favorite in Game 3, but a majority of spread tickets are on Milwaukee. It has been profitable to bet unpopular favorites in the NBA Playoffs since 2005.

145-111 (57%)


The Raptors were blown out in Game 2 by 22 points. Can Toronto bounce back? Since 2005, home favorites that lost their previous game by double digits have gone 115-81-5 (59%) against the spread in the playoffs. — Ewing

The Bucks are simply dominating in the 2019 NBA playoffs. They are 10-1 ATS, beating opponents by 7.4 points per game. Since 2005, there have been numerous teams in the playoffs that had a win rate of 70% or higher and an average scoring margin of 10-plus PPG in their last 10 games … but just a handful were listed as an underdog, like the Bucks in Game 3.

Teams with that profile and listed as an underdog are just 5-13-1 ATS (27.8%) in the playoffs, failing to cover the spread by 5.3 points per game. When those teams are favored, they are 63-49-1 ATS (56.3%). — Evan Abrams

The Bucks are 8-4 straight up and 9-3 ATS when listed as an underdog this season. Three of the 12 games the Bucks were listed as underdogs have come against the Raptors entering Game 3 in Toronto:

Jan. 31, 2019: Bucks (+2.5) win in Toronto (105-92)
Dec. 9, 2018: Bucks (+4.5) win in Toronto (104-99)
Oct. 29, 2018: Bucks (+2) win at home vs. Toronto (123-108) –– Abrams

The Raptors head home down 2-0 in the series against the Bucks. Since 2005, teams that are down 0-2 heading home for Game 3 are 79-38-1 (67.5%) against the first-half spread; they are 28-6 (82.4%) in this spot over the last four seasons. —
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  #213  
Old 05-20-2019, 09:49 AM
goldengreek goldengreek is online now
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Monday night will be the ninth potential sweep opportunity for the Warriors under Steve Kerr. The Warriors are 5-3 straight up and against the spread in those games, but their spread of -3.5 is the lowest of any of those previous eight road games. — Evan Abrams

The Warriors enter Game 4 in Portland with a chance to sweep the Blazers. Golden State has won five consecutive games entering this potential sweep opportunity after closing out the Rockets in six games in the Western Conference Semifinals.

Since 2005, teams that are on at least a five-game winning streak entering Game 4 with an opportunity to sweep are 26-11 SU and 20-15-2 ATS. The Warriors have been in this spot six times and are 4-2 SU and ATS, with their two losses coming against the Cavaliers and Rockets. — Abrams

Remember the very profitable first-half trend on the Blazers in Game 3? Well, that angle disappears when teams go down 0-3 at home in Game 4. Those teams are 29-25-1 (53.7%) against the first-half spread. Compare that to the 79-38-1 (67.5%) record in Game 3s when teams are down just 0-2.

The one first-half trend going in the Blazers’ favor? In the regular season and playoffs under Terry Stotts, Portland is 43-28-1 (60.6%) against the first-half spread at home after losing at home in its previous game. Stotts is the second-most profitable coach in the Bet Labs database in this spot behind just George Karl. –– Abrams

The Blazers blew a 13-point halftime lead in Game 3 and are now down 0-3 to the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals. What should bettors expect from Portland on the verge of being swept? Since 2005, teams down 0-3 have gone 21-41 SU and 25-34-3 ATS in Game 4.
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  #214  
Old 05-21-2019, 01:15 PM
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Did you know? Overtime is where unders go to die. The Bucks-Raptors Game 3 total closed at 222. At the end of regulation, the teams had combined to score 192 points, but after double-overtime the over cashed. Since 2005, the over is 1,530-312-28 in overtime games and 332-6 when the game goes to two overtimes. – John Ewing

The Raptors are 2.5-point underdogs at home in Game 4. This is the first time in the playoffs Toronto has been a home dog this year. The Raptors went 9-8 SU and 10-7 ATS as an underdog in the regular season, including 1-2 SU and ATS as a dog to the Bucks. – Ewing

The Bucks lost Game 3 on the road against the Raptors. This season, no team has been better off a loss than Milwaukee. The Bucks are 22-1 straight-up (+15 point differential) and 19-4 ATS (+7.2 point differential) after a loss this season; they’re the most profitable team ATS in that spot. The Bucks are also 10-1 SU and ATS on the road after a loss this year, with their only loss coming against the Suns. – Evan Abrams

The Bucks led the NBA in Defensive Rating during the regular season this year, allowing 104.9 points per 100 possessions. In Game 3, the Bucks allowed 118 points on the road against the Raptors, the most points Milwaukee has allowed in the playoffs (though it did take two overtimes for Toronto to get there).

This season, the Bucks are 20-6 (76.9%) ATS after allowing 115 points or more in their previous game, covering the spread by 6.0 points per game.



Milwaukee opened as a short two-point road favorite for tonight’s pivotal Game 4 in Toronto. Currently 70% of spread bets and 80% of spread dollars are laying the points with Giannis and company. This heavily lopsided action has forced oddsmakers to move the Bucks from -2 to -3.

The Bucks also match several profitable Bet Labs historical systems. Since 2015, favorites in the NBA playoffs getting more money than bets have gone 98-53 ATS (64.9%), winning +40 units with a 26.3% ROI and 3.31-point cover margin. This season, they’ve gone 16-7 ATS (70%).

If the favorite is getting more money than bets and also has line movement in their favor (Bucks -2 to -3 tonight), they’ve gone 55-37 ATS (59.8%) since 2015, including 10-3 ATS (77%) this postseason.
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