NFL Conference Round Trends

[King Nothing]

General:
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-Hosts are on a 14-4 SU and 11-7 ATS (61%) run in Conference Championship play. (KC Chiefs and LA Rams failed to cover the point spread in their games a year ago).

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-The outright winner has covered the point spread in all but six of the last 42 (85.7%) Conference Championship playoff games. (The most recent team not to do that was the LA Rams last year).

[King Nothing]

-There have been 10 Road Favourites in the last 26 years of Conference Championship playoffs, and those teams are 6-4 SU and 5-4-1 ATS. (Ontario has CIN -1.5 right now but keep an eye on the Vegas Line at kickoff due to Mahommes' ankle injury if it matches or ...).

[King Nothing]

-Home teams are 13-3 SU and 10-6 ATS (62.5%) in the last 16 AFC clashes.

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-Home teams are 15-5 and 9-9 ATS (50%) in their last 18 NFC tilts.

[King Nothing]

-#1 seeds have been the host teams in 43and have gone 29-14 SU of the last 60 Conference Championship games and 22-21 ATS in those games. Both PHI and KC advance out of the Divisional Round and both will host.

[King Nothing]

Overall, since '93, OVER the Total is 35-24-1 (59.3%) in the Conference Championship playoff games including 8-4 OVER the last 12...

But...breaking this down further...

-The last 11 AFC games are 7-4 UNDER (63.6%).

-The NFC contests are on a 14-6-1 OVER (70%) surge.

[King Nothing]

-Teams that controlled the time of possession are on a 27-11 SU and 29-9 ATS (76.3%) run in the Conference Championship playoffs since '03 . This is obviously a critical factor.

[King Nothing]

Don't force bets on the sides and totals of these last 3 remaining NFL games. There will be plenty of opportunities in the prop market.

And remember to use trends as guides, not as a rule.

And most of all, games are not played on paper.

Once that first kickoff is unleashed anything can happen.

GL

[King Nothing]

-Nine playoff games in the last 20 years saw one team open as a favourite and close as an underdog -- they went 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS including 5-1 SU/ATS since 2010. (The only loss? Seahawks in the Superbowl against the Patriots). The Chiefs would be just the second home team in the Conference Championship since 1990 to open as a Fav and close as a Dog.

[King Nothing]

For the first time in almost 50 years, two teams with 10+ straight up win streaks are playing in Conference Championship weekend with the 49ers (12) and the Bengals (10). They are the 11th and 12th teams since the merger to enter the Conference title weekend on such a streak with 8 of the 10 teams making the Superbowl. (Interesting, eh?).

[King Nothing]

In the last 20 years, when two teams averaging at least 130 rushing yards per game face off in the playoffs -- which has only happened six times, including both NFC Divisional Round games last weekend, the under is 6-0, going under the total by 15.5 ppg. (During the regular season, the under is 107-92-4 (53.8 %) in this spot as well).

[King Nothing]

The Eagles will be playing their fourth consecutive game at home. Their last three home games went under the total, prior to that, the Eagles last 12 home games went 11-1 to the over.

[King Nothing]

PHI Player Props:
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-Jalen Hurts needs one TD to break Cam Newton's single-season record (including playoffs). Hurts has scored in 6 of his last 8 games.

-Will Hurts throw an interception? The last 5 QBs to face the 49ers have thrown a pick, 7 of the last 8, and 9 of the last 11 for the 49ets defense.

-Dallas Goedert has been very consistent. He has five or more receptions and 50+ receiving yards in three straight playoff games, one game shy of Eagles TE playoff record set by Zach Ertz.

[King Nothing]

49ers Player Props:
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-In the second half of the season, both George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey have been touchdown machines at 9 and 10 respectively.

-McCaffrey has scored in 8 straight games, and 10 of last 13 games.

-Bank on Brock Purdy under passing yards? The passing yards prop under is 16-3 vs. the Eagles in their last 19 games dating back to last season.

[King Nothing]

Ja'Mar Chase in three games with Joe Burrow vs Chiefs:

-24 receptions
-417 receiving yards
-4 touchdowns
-20+ yard reception in all three games

[King Nothing]

-Games at night (6pm ET or later) are 39-21 to the Under so far this season.

-Unders at night were 3-2 in the WC and Div Round games.

-Under is 18-3 in last 21 night games.

-Under is 19-4 in night games since Dec. 1.

[King Nothing]

-Chiefs are 2-11 ATS in Conference games this season, the worst mark in the league.

-Chiefs are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games vs the AFC.

[King Nothing]

-Chiefs defense has allowed 20 pts or less in b2b games. When the Chiefs defense gets hot, it's hard to beat Mahommes' and Co., who are 16-2 SU after allowing 20 pts or less in consecutive games, winning nine in a row dating back to 2020.

-Chiefs are 7-2 to the Under at home this season and 6-3 to the Over on the road.

[GoldMoney]

In NFL history, no rookie quarterback has ever won a Super Bowl. In fact, no rookie quarterback has ever made the Super Bowl.

Rookie quarterbacks have made the AFC and NFC championship games but have not gone on to the Super Bowl.

[King Nothing]

^

I didn't put that one in because I figured bettors normally play against a rookie QB in high stakes games. Well, I know the majority does in the NFL forum. I've been doing it automatically for years but this case is different -- Brock Purdy keeps impressing me every game he plays. There's bound to be one that will play in the SB and win it "someday"...it's bound to happen just like every record gets broken, but right now I'm still looking at a SF ML play. Nothing more.

The negatives are: the Niners are on the road, different time zone and different climate.

In order to win their D must play a near perfect game...and that they can do.

Looking forward to see your picks!