Go Back   Sports Handicapping at cappersmall > >

UFC, MMA, Boxing, etc Talk it up, anything related to Boxing, Wrestling, Ultimate Fighting, & all Martial Arts.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 01-02-2020, 07:46 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 107,484
Rewards: 63,482
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 14002
Likes (Received): 27562
246

T-Mobile Arena - Las Vegas, Nevada
Saturday, January 18


30-15 Posted plays in 2019


I don't like sharing chalk but I like this enough to share ... still seeing decent value even at this price ... I just can't see Dana's cash cow coming back after a long layoff and losing to Cowboy who's riding a 2 fight TKO losing streak.


Conor McGregor -280
__________________
Likes Swoosh1, DopeJohnPaul liked this post
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 01-03-2020, 03:07 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 107,484
Rewards: 63,482
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 14002
Likes (Received): 27562
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 01-11-2020, 09:29 PM
philenium philenium is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: To live By The Lake
Posts: 7,906
Rewards: 43,787
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 333
Likes (Received): 695
Gl bro
__________________
Likes New York Knight liked this post
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 01-13-2020, 03:01 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 107,484
Rewards: 63,482
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 14002
Likes (Received): 27562
One of the biggest takeaways today from the McGregor interview with Ariel Helwani?

McGregor said he banked $50 million for the Khabib Nurmagomedov fight and is expecting to make around $80 million for his fight with Cerrone at UFC 246.


These figures in MMA are incredible
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 01-14-2020, 07:26 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 107,484
Rewards: 63,482
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 14002
Likes (Received): 27562
Dana says the gate for UFC 246 is $10.6M

That would make it the fifth largest for a UFC event:


1. UFC 205 ... $17.7M
2. UFC 229 ... $17,188,894.67
3. UFC 129 ... $12.075M
4. UFC 200 ... $10,746,248
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 01-14-2020, 08:21 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 107,484
Rewards: 63,482
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 14002
Likes (Received): 27562
Caesars Palace Sportsbooks


McGregor opened -240, up to -330 today, and he's seen sharp money ... Cowboy from +190 to +260

"Small money will be on Cowboy, due to the price."

Book expects to need underdog Cerrone.

"Hard to say how big of a decision it will be at this point. So much money will come in this weekend."

"Rarely is this big of a favorite bet by the public." But book expects public to bet McGregor by knockout when the proposition bets go up Thursday.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 01-14-2020, 08:23 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 107,484
Rewards: 63,482
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 14002
Likes (Received): 27562
MGM Race & Sports


McGregor opens -240, stretches to -350 ... now -320

Cowboy from +190 to +280 ... now +250

"Money 3/1 on McGregor, but ticket count is 4/1 on the 'dog."
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 01-15-2020, 07:59 AM
wayne1218 wayne1218 is offline
Hall of Fame
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Northeast
Posts: 34,764
Rewards: 18,633,643
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 5691
Likes (Received): 11308
DC has looked old of late. Hopefully Conor is prepared. That guy is a nut case!
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 01-15-2020, 08:02 AM
wayne1218 wayne1218 is offline
Hall of Fame
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Northeast
Posts: 34,764
Rewards: 18,633,643
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 5691
Likes (Received): 11308
I was gonna ask you who you liked and then i saw this thread. I was surprised the line was that high this morning when i looked. I got -340 right now. It may be too rich for my blood at this point. I think you are on the right side but i took a bath a couple times thinking the same of Rousey when she got her ass kicked
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 01-15-2020, 04:56 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 107,484
Rewards: 63,482
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 14002
Likes (Received): 27562
I don’t like Cowboy's mentality going into this fight.

“I like to fight too. I like to get in there and throw down. Everyone says his standup is amazing, so why not go and test it? Everyone says, ‘you want to just stand there, you’re going to get knocked out, that’s such a stupid game plan, that’s a stupid decision.’ But it’s my decision. It’s my stupidity. Who the fuck are you to tell me what I can do?”


I appreciate his warrior mentality and wanting to "throw down" but in this stage of his career, and against this fighter, and with that suspect chin ... it will backfire.
__________________
Likes DopeJohnPaul, rkyric liked this post
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 01-15-2020, 11:13 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 107,484
Rewards: 63,482
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 14002
Likes (Received): 27562
Tonight's presser was very different.

Conor with no arrogance, just pure confidence and humbleness, really a weird thing to see, but I like it. It's almost scary how confident he is. Day and night compared to his Khabib presser. You could tell his head wasn't in the right space before that fight.

He's hungry again and it shows.
__________________
Likes DopeJohnPaul, Swoosh1, rkyric liked this post
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 01-17-2020, 02:48 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 107,484
Rewards: 63,482
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 14002
Likes (Received): 27562
Nevada has canceled the Grasso / Gadelha fight because the allowance between strawweights in Nevada is 3 pounds between competitors and there was a six pound difference between them. Grasso weighed 121.5.

Gadelha accepted the fight (with Grasso giving up 30% of the purse) but because of that Nevada rule the fight was called off.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 01-17-2020, 03:08 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 107,484
Rewards: 63,482
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 14002
Likes (Received): 27562
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 01-17-2020, 05:40 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 107,484
Rewards: 63,482
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 14002
Likes (Received): 27562
Brian Kelleher vs. Ode Osbourne has been bumped up to the main card



Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 01-17-2020, 05:57 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 107,484
Rewards: 63,482
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 14002
Likes (Received): 27562
Worth noting

According to Dana ...

"If he wins Saturday night, McGregor will get title shot and it’ll be the biggest UFC pay-per-view of all-time."


Just my opinion, but, the UFC has too much invested in Conor for him to lose ......
__________________
Likes DopeJohnPaul liked this post
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 01-17-2020, 06:48 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 107,484
Rewards: 63,482
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 14002
Likes (Received): 27562
Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
One of the biggest takeaways today from the McGregor interview with Ariel Helwani?

McGregor said he banked $50 million for the Khabib Nurmagomedov fight and is expecting to make around $80 million for his fight with Cerrone at UFC 246.


These figures in MMA are incredible

Not counting PPV buys ...

McGregor will make $3 million in the main event.

Cerrone will make $200k to show, $200k to win.


Those figures courtesy of the Nevada State Athletic Commission.
__________________
Likes DopeJohnPaul liked this post
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 01-17-2020, 06:55 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 107,484
Rewards: 63,482
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 14002
Likes (Received): 27562
BetOnline

"House will be rooting for McGregor (-330) tomorrow night."


80% of the bettors on Cowboy (+270)
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 01-17-2020, 07:16 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 107,484
Rewards: 63,482
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 14002
Likes (Received): 27562
Conor McGregor vs. Donald Cerrone


Over his lifetime, Cerrone spends 55 seconds of every five minutes on the ground, controlling his opponent 56% of the time. When alternative stats weight towards more recent bouts, Cerrone’s time spent on the ground drops to 20 seconds but increases in control to 75% of the time.


A good stat for McGregor is that even though Cerrone’s hardly ever been swept from top position – and McGregor isn’t likely to change that – opponents have always stood up well against Cowboy and have done even better more recently. In his lifetime stats, opponents get back to their feet 38% better than average against Cerrone. With alternative stats, it increases to 39%.


McGregor’s current standup rate isn’t too hot after Khabib allowed him to his feet only once in almost 9 ˝ minutes of ground control, but before that bout McGregor was a perfectly average fighter in the standup department.


Where McGregor’s nowhere near average is distance fighting. He throws head jabs at a lower rate than Cerrone (per five minutes in the position, P5M), yet lands just as much as Cowboy (4.9 head jabs landed P5M) due to his superior accuracy. And when it comes to power strikes, McGregor has volume, accuracy, and stopping force in his favor.


At distance, McGregor tends to throw around 50% more power volume than Cerrone with 62.1 power attempts P5M to Cowboy’s 39.5. While both fighters mix in body and leg strikes well, most of McGregor’s power advantage comes from bombs to the head where he throws 50.3 attempts to Cerrone’s 29.4 and lands at 51% to 34%.


When factoring opponent striking and the defensive end, McGregor’s power strike differential at distance comes in at a still-significant +15.0, even after the Khabib fight, while Cerrone is slightly positive over his lifetime but -4.4 in the alternative stats world. Part of the reason is that Cerrone’s head power defense seems to have suffered lately, a stat which might not bode well against a sniper of McGregor’s caliber. Over his lifetime, Cerrone’s absorbed 33% of power strikes to his skull. In alternative stats, it’s even higher at 43%.


Yet anyone who knows Cerrone knows he’s still extremely dangerous, even if the fight ends up a kickboxing affair in smaller gloves. At 36 years old, Cowboy drops opponents to the canvas in 22.6% of his rounds, well above the 9.4% welterweight average (yet far behind McGregor’s 37.7%). But on the flip side, at 14.1% of his rounds, Cerrone also gets dropped more than the average welterweight. McGregor, on the other hand, is still yet to be knocked down in the UFC as Khabib’s fake takedown to overhand right didn’t quite make the cut in FightMetric’s determination.


If Cerrone can move the fight to the clinch (a position where he spends 60% of the time off the cage where no one has control) he throws 67% more power strikes to the head and body than a typical welterweight and has also gone a solid 7-for-11 on takedown attempts.


If Cerrone can get things to the ground, he has control 75% of the time and throws 53.6 power shots P5M, almost exclusively to the head, whereas a typical welterweight only throws 22.2. And while he hasn’t attempted as many lately, Cerrone still throws up subs at a rate 61% greater than the welterweight average and finishes over 50% once the weight of his nine failed attempts versus Ben Henderson over 10 years ago at WEC 43 has been diminished.


Might Cerrone try to grind McGregor, make him work early, stuff takedowns, and possibly carry his weight?

While cardio’s hard to measure, those around this game know it doesn’t seem to be McGregor’s weapon of choice and there are stats to bear it out. Between rounds 1 and 2, Cerrone’s rate of distance power attempts increases 2.2% while McGregor tends to improve by 9.8%. But when that same comparison moves to rounds 2 and 4, Cerrone’s volume rate basically stays flat while McGregor drops off by -18.9%. And when you’re tired, the effectiveness of whatever shots you do land also tends to suffer.
__________________
Likes DopeJohnPaul liked this post
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 01-17-2020, 07:27 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 107,484
Rewards: 63,482
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 14002
Likes (Received): 27562
From Jeff Stoneback, Director of Trading Operations for MGM Resorts International


Betting for UFC 246 has been lighter than expected at MGM Resorts in Vegas. However, they are expecting multiple five and six figure bets to come in prior to the fight.

As of today at 3:00PM in Vegas, the MGM sportsbooks have written four times as many tickets as they had when betting opened.

They are expecting more two way action on this bout than previous McGregor bouts. There have been five times the amount of bets on Cerrone ... but 50% more $$ is on McGregor.

The largest wager so far is just under $20,000 on McGregor.


The books are expecting at least 50 bigger bets than that by fight time and think there will be a ton of action still coming in.
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 01-17-2020, 09:46 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 107,484
Rewards: 63,482
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 14002
Likes (Received): 27562
Golden Nugget

"We're starting to take some dog money and we've dropped Conor to -300."
Reply With Quote
  #21  
Old 01-17-2020, 10:47 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 107,484
Rewards: 63,482
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 14002
Likes (Received): 27562
__________________
Likes DopeJohnPaul liked this post
Reply With Quote
  #22  
Old 01-18-2020, 12:37 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 107,484
Rewards: 63,482
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 14002
Likes (Received): 27562




Reply With Quote
  #23  
Old 01-18-2020, 01:51 AM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 107,484
Rewards: 63,482
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 14002
Likes (Received): 27562
Quote:
Originally Posted by New York Knight View Post
Dana says the gate for UFC 246 is $10.6M

That would make it the fifth largest for a UFC event:


1. UFC 205 ... $17.7M
2. UFC 229 ... $17,188,894.67
3. UFC 129 ... $12.075M
4. UFC 200 ... $10,746,248

Dana just told Submission Radio the gate is now $11M

That would make it the fourth largest for a UFC event
Reply With Quote
  #24  
Old 01-18-2020, 12:39 PM
New York Knight New York Knight is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: NEW YORK
Posts: 107,484
Rewards: 63,482
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 14002
Likes (Received): 27562
MMA oddsmaker Joey Oddessa


Money flowing toward the Irishman.

“It's pretty simple: action has been all one way since online opened it McGregor -165. I've seen a steady flow of sharp and public money on McGregor. The price hasn't gotten high enough for these guys to start liking Cerrone yet. It may never get high enough.”



However, at MGM books, action has been much closer to a draw.

“It’s pretty good two-way on the money. Right now, we’re a small five-figure loser to Cerrone. There are more tickets on Cerrone, as well, which is kind of surprising. The big high rollers, who will make this a decision, will come in today, and we’ll see those bets Saturday. The really big bets will be on McGregor, but people betting $50 or $100 will be on Cerrone.”


Despite the two-way play at MGM, McGregor stretched from the opening price of -240 to -350, before dialing back to -300. Cerrone opened +190 and reached +280, then tightened to +250 after another $10,000 bet came in later Friday.


Oddessa said he’s seen Under money on the round proposition bets, as well as cash on the fight not going the full five rounds.

“I saw these donkeys open McGregor inside the distance at -125. It's up to -245 now. I understand they didn't want to give it away, but you would expect Cerrone to be in the fight if it gets past three rounds, anyway. So why wouldn't (bettors) take a shot on the ‘dog?”
Reply With Quote
  #25  
Old 01-18-2020, 01:03 PM
Cali Roots Cali Roots is offline
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 14,699
Rewards: 101,494
Post Thanks / Like
Likes (Given): 1496
Likes (Received): 3549
You leaning on any of the other fights NyK?
__________________
2019 NFL (9-8)
2019 CFB (3-2)
Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
back, coming, danas, losing, price

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:22 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Resources saved on this page: MySQL 13.64% Host: cappersmallweb4