Dustin Poirier

[wayne1218]

Anyone think he has a chance or Conor too good?

[springjk]

please explain how Connor is too good

[wayne1218]

Explain? It was a question.

[springjk]

McGregor has looked like shit in 3 of his last 4 fights, the one being a gift of a fight with Cowboy. He's literally in this for a payday. He is fast approaching Anderson Silva territory, if not already there. He doesn't care about W & L anymore. Just $$$

[wayne1218]

I kind of like Dustin but Vegas has Conor -300. Makes me wonder if I’m missing something here. He did dominate him in the 1st fight but Dustin is a better fighter now

That was the point of the thread, to see what others think

Does Dustin have a shot or is Conor too good. Would love to hear what NYK and Lord CC think too

[sacpac]

Originally Posted by wayne1218

I kind of like Dustin but Vegas has Conor -300. Makes me wonder if I’m missing something here. He did dominate him in the 1st fight but Dustin is a better fighter now

That was the point of the thread, to see what others think

Does Dustin have a shot or is Conor too good. Would love to hear what NYK and Lord CC think too

For me I will be betting Dustin value is on him as a big dog.

[LordCC]

I agree with the Dustin Poirier bet. Connor hasn't fought in a few years & is a train wreck at the best of times. There is no way he can be sharp & I feel there is too much value to pass up.

[springjk]

Originally Posted by LordCC

I agree with the Dustin Poirier bet. Connor hasn't fought in a few years & is a train wreck at the best of times. There is no way he can be sharp & I feel there is too much value to pass up.

he fought almost exactly one year ago

[New York Knight]

First things first ... Poirier is a much better version of himself at lightweight. The 2014 fight gets tossed out the window.

Conor is overpriced due to casuals and his loyal fan base hammering him. True line would be around -175 to -200 (opening numbers)

I do disagree he's just looking for a paycheck and approaching Anderson Silva territory. Spider lost 7 of his last 8. Conor will never put himself into that position, losing multiple times in a row, and will never fight into his mid 40's. He's also one win away from a title shot so motivation is there.

McGregor sounds / looks focused and reports / video show he put in a bad ass camp. Also second fight in a row with no bad blood towards his opponent, also not promoting any type of product. No distraction.

Dustin has all the tools to get the job done.

- Durable as hell
- Absorbs significant damage
- Fantastic boxing
- Tremendous ground game (black-belt-jiu-jits with great wrestling)

IMO the main keys here are cage time and ground game. The longer the fight goes, the more advantage for Dustin. The blueprint to beat Conor is crystal clear ... survive the early onslaught, drag him into deep water ... and drown him.

Good chance this fight stays standing and both men bang it out (advantage Conor). Dustin's chances will improve immensely if he attempts / decides to get this thing to the ground.

IMO it's dog or pass. All the value is on Poirier. There is the possibility Conor walks right through him but i'm not risking that chance at such an inflated number.


If you’re bullish on Dustin, imo wait ... you should be able to get him at +300 or better by Saturday.

[wayne1218]

David Purdum
ESPN Staff Writer

A few big bets have already shown up on Conor McGregor, and his odds are on the move ahead of Saturday's UFC 257 main event that's expected to draw significant betting interest at sportsbooks.

McGregor is a consensus -315 favorite over Dustin Poirier and is attracting the bulk of the action, including a pair of six-figure bets placed in recent days. On Tuesday, FanDuel reported taking a $188,800 bet on McGregor from a customer in New Jersey at -290 odds to win a net $65,103. On Friday, sportsbook operator PointsBet took a $100,000 bet on McGregor at -277 odds. Bookmakers say it's only the beginning.

"Saturday is trending to be our biggest UFC event ever, surpassing UFC 246, when McGregor took out Donald Cerrone," Patrick Eichner, communications director for sportsbook PointsBet, told ESPN.

[Swoosh1]

Originally Posted by New York Knight

First things first ... Poirier is a much better version of himself at lightweight. The 2014 fight gets tossed out the window.

Conor is overpriced due to casuals and his loyal fan base hammering him. True line would be around -175 to -200 (opening numbers)

I do disagree he's just looking for a paycheck and approaching Anderson Silva territory. Spider lost 7 of his last 8. Conor will never put himself into that position, losing multiple times in a row, and will never fight into his mid 40's. He's also one win away from a title shot so motivation is there.

McGregor sounds / looks focused and reports / video show he put in a bad ass camp. Also second fight in a row with no bad blood towards his opponent, also not promoting any type of product. No distraction.

Dustin has all the tools to get the job done.

- Durable as hell
- Absorbs significant damage
- Fantastic boxing
- Tremendous ground game (black-belt-jiu-jits with great wrestling)

IMO the main keys here are cage time and ground game. The longer the fight goes, the more advantage for Dustin. The blueprint to beat Conor is crystal clear ... survive the early onslaught, drag him into deep water ... and drown him.

Good chance this fight stays standing and both men bang it out (advantage Conor). Dustin's chances will improve immensely if he attempts / decides to get this thing to the ground.

IMO it's dog or pass. All the value is on Poirier. There is the possibility Conor walks right through him but i'm not risking that chance at such an inflated number.


If you’re bullish on Dustin, imo wait ... you should be able to get him at +300 or better by Saturday.

Thank you NYK!!! As always thanks for your input.
Best of luck with your plays

[New York Knight]

MAIN CARD (Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET)

Dustin Poirier (156) vs. Conor McGregor (155)
Michael Chandler (156) vs. Dan Hooker (156)
Joanne Calderwood (126) vs. Jessica Eye (126)
Ottman Azaitar ()* vs. Matt Frevola (155.5)
Amanda Ribas (116) vs. Marina Rodriguez (116)


PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPN, ESPN+, 8 p.m. ET)

Nasrat Haqparast ()**** vs. Arman Tsarukyan (157)**
Antonio Carlos Junior (185) vs. Brad Tavares (185.5)
Sara McMann (135) vs. Julianna Pena (136)
Marcin Prachnio (206) vs. Khalil Rountree (206)***


PRELIMINARY CARD (ESPN+, 6:15 p.m. ET)

Makhmud Muradov (186) vs. Andrew Sanchez (186)
Movsar Evloev (150) vs. Nik Lentz (150)
Amir Albazi (126) vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov (126)



* Ottman Azaitar did not weigh in and was ruled out of his fight fight vs. Matt Frevola

** Arman Tsarukyan missed lightweight limit by 3 pounds; given one additional hour and missed weight by one pound.

*** Khalil Rountree missed light heavyweight limit by 0.5 pounds on first attempt, but made weight on his second attempt.

**** Nasrat Haqparast did not weigh in and was ruled out of his fight fight vs. Tsarukyan due to illness

[New York Knight]

Crazy story regarding Ottman Azaitar's removal because of "health and safety violation."


UFC cut the undefeated lightweight this afternoon. Azaitar attempted to help others enter the UFC’s designated safety zone and bypass covid quarantine measures.

He and his team cut off their wrist bands, gave them to somebody outside the bubble. That guy taped them, showed up with a bag, went into a room, shimmied across four balconies, went in his room dropped the bag off, changed his clothes, and then left. When security tried to stop him, he wouldn’t stop.

Rampant speculation that the bag Ottoman was getting was for a post fight coke binge. This guy has never hidden the fact that he's friendly with some of the most notorious mafia groups operating in Germany.

He's also pretty tight with Arafat Abou-Chaker.

The Abou Chaker clan is an organized crime family that operates protection rackets, drugs and arms trades, as well as the sex trade. Of Palestinian origins, it is believed that there are over 200 extended family members in the crime group, most of whom reside in Lebanon, Denmark, and Germany. Abou Chaker’s crimes are so extensive that the Berlin police department assigned a separate case worker to focus specifically on him.

[parlaytdi]

I really want to smash Dustin at +250...way too much value there to pass up.

[Keith]

Guy dominates. Guy has run ins with the law (multiple times). Guy looks like a shell of himself in last few fights. Guy retires. Guy comes out of retirement to fight a guy he has already beaten. Guy hears talk about him being the next action movie star. Guy goes into fight at close to -350 favorite against the guy who he previously beat. Hmmm......

[New York Knight]

[Keith]

Originally Posted by Keith

Guy dominates. Guy has run ins with the law (multiple times). Guy looks like a shell of himself in last few fights. Guy retires. Guy comes out of retirement to fight a guy he has already beaten. Guy hears talk about him being the next action movie star. Guy goes into fight at close to -350 favorite against the guy who he previously beat. Hmmm......

[New York Knight]

Future lines ... Dustin still a dog vs. Conor






Decent chance the eventual vacant title bout won't be Poirier/Chandler, it'll be Poirier/McGregor III

At last night's presser Poirier made it pretty clear he doesn’t want to fight Chandler. Said Chandler should fight Oliviera.

He did seem pretty interested in the Conor trilogy. He knows that's the money fight again. Dana can easily sell it saying look at how Conor came back after Nate 1.

Flip side - Nate/Conor III could be next ... Way easier path to victory for Conor. The possibility of back to back loses to Dustin doesn't put him in Spider Silva territory but does put him in Ronda territory.

If i'm Sean Shelby I'd be pushing Gaethje/McGregor ... imo that's the fight to make.

I have almost no interest in Nate vs. Conor again. Nate leaks blood, opens up too easy with all the scar tissue. Doctor stoppage always a possibility.

I'm cool with a Dustin trilogy ... I don't think it will be as one-sided as last night. Conor can easily make the adjustment by returning calf kicks and using that stabbing front kick to keep Dustin at bay.

Time will tell what happens next ...




Odds on Poirier's next opponent:

Michael Chandler 3/2
Charles Oliveira 5/2
Conor McGregor 9/2
Khabib Nurmagomedov 6/1
Nate Diaz 8/1
Justin Gaethje 14/1
Tony Ferguson 14/1



Odds on McGregor's next opponent:

Nate Diaz 2/1
Dustin Poirier 3/1
Justin Gaethje 4/1
Tony Ferguson 6/1
Jorge Masvidal 8/1
Michael Chandler 10/1
Charles Oliveira 12/1

[New York Knight]

[New York Knight]

Trilogy now posted at SuperBook

[New York Knight]