2020 NHL postseason preview

[wayne1218]

Qualification-round matchups, series picks

Emily Kaplan and Greg Wyshynski

Eastern Conference Round-robin:

How they got here: Let's start with the Bruins, who lost in the Stanley Cup Final last year. Boston returned with largely the same veteran roster. Bruce Cassidy did a terrific job keeping this group consistently motivated, and it helps that David Pastrnak had a star turn, tying Alex Ovechkin for the league lead in goals. Ovechkin led the Caps once again, and despite some wobbles on defense and in goal, Washington cruised in one of the top Metropolitan Division positions for most of the season. The Lightning got off to a slow start after last year's playoff collapse but then started to look like themselves -- and got some forward depth reinforcements at the trade deadline. As for Philly? With a new coach and modest expectations, the Flyers became one of the NHL's hottest teams in the two months before the shutdown. Since Jan. 8, they tied the Bruins for the best record in the league.

First line: The Lightning have one of the most dangerous top lines in the league, with Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov, but Stamkos' status for the round-robin is unknown as he nurses a lower-body injury. Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Tom Wilson are a well-oiled machine, but Philly's Claude Giroux, Sean Couturier and Jakub Voracek can kill you defensively and put up production. The elite trio here is Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron and Pastrnak. It's a flawless line built for the playoffs. Advantage: Boston

Forward depth: The Flyers have shored up their center depth recently, which helped them manage without Nolan Patrick. Although the Bruins have grit and experience throughout the lineup, there is a drop-off in forward talent, especially when it gets to the fourth line. Washington's forward group has always been competent, but nobody's bottom nine is as balanced and dynamic as Tampa Bay's. The Lightning got even better at the trade deadline by adding Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow. Advantage: Tampa Bay

Defense: The Bruins' D has a nice blend of youth and veterans. They're diverse, too, with guys who can provide offense as well as bone-crushing, stay-at-home defenders. The Flyers also have a sound top six, and their second pairing of Travis Sanheim and Philippe Myers is sneaky good. The Caps' defense is not their strength, though it improved with the addition of Brenden Dillon at the trade deadline. Tampa Bay has a great top six, but we don't know yet what's going on with Victor Hedman. The Norris Trophy finalist didn't travel with the team to the hub as he attends to a personal matter. Advantage: Boston

Goaltending: Philly's Carter Hart is the biggest wild card here. The 21-year-old has tremendous potential but has never been in the playoffs. Plus, he was nursing an injury late in training camp. Braden Holtby had his worst statistical season but has something to prove as he plays out the final year of his contract. The Caps' preferred backup, Ilya Samsonov, is injured, so they'll rely heavily on Holtby. Andrei Vasilevskiy is the reigning Vezina Trophy winner and a finalist again this season. He was especially good from Jan. 1 on, picking up wins in 18 of 24 games with three shutouts and a .930 save percentage. Tuukka Rask is also a Vezina finalist, but there's a good chance that Jaroslav Halak will get some starts in the round-robin. Advantage: Tampa Bay

Coaching: We have two Jack Adams finalists (Bruce Cassidy and Alain Vigneault) in this group. Although Todd Reirden has good command of his veteran roster, the other guys have an edge here. Jon Cooper led the Lightning to new heights and an NHL-record 62 wins last season but has something to prove this postseason, as his team was stunningly swept in the first round last season. Cassidy gets the slight nod over Vigneault for recency bias; we saw him lead this exact team to a Stanley Cup Final last season. Advantage: Boston

Neutral-ice advantage: The Caps have the best road record in the league, and -- fun Ovi fact -- No. 8 has scored more goals on the road than in D.C. in his career. Advantage: Washington

Special teams: The Capitals' power play didn't have its most productive season, but adding Ilya Kovalchuk is an exciting wrinkle, and that should scare opponents. Philly's power play is about league average, though its penalty kill is good. The Bruins have the best power play in the Eastern Conference, and the Lightning are right behind them. Boston also has the best penalty kill in the Eastern Conference. Advantage: Boston

Prediction:

1. Bruins
2. Capitals
3. Lightning
4. Flyers

This should be a fun group of games, and absences (because of injury or rest) could factor into the results. The Bruins have the deepest and most battle-tested roster. We expect them to come out on top heading into the round of 16.

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No. 5 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. No. 12 Montreal Canadiens

Series pick: Pittsburgh in four. This is one of the more mismatched qualification-round series. A motivated and rested Penguins roster should have no trouble finishing off the Habs.

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No. 6 Carolina Hurricanes vs. No. 11 New York Rangers

Series pick: Rangers in five. This series promises to be entertaining, but it's going to come down to goaltending. The Rangers simply have better options in net, and that will help them pull off an upset.

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No. 7 New York Islanders vs. No. 10 Florida Panthers

Series pick: Islanders in five. The Panthers' offense presents a problem, but in the Islanders' defense we trust. The key for New York is its goal scoring. The Isles were eliminated by the Canes in last year's playoffs after scoring only five goals in four games and will need to do better than that.

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No. 8 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. No. 9 Columbus Blue Jackets

Series pick: Toronto in five. It isn't going to be easy -- Columbus should give Toronto fits with its forecheck -- but playing at their home arena, this is the Leafs' series to lose.

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Western Conference Round-robin:

How they got here: The defending Stanley Cup champion Blues didn't miss a beat -- or star forward Vladimir Tarasenko, surprisingly -- as they finished atop the Western Conference with 94 points. Right there with them were the Avalanche (92 points), who overcame injury adversity of their own, thanks in part to a Hart Trophy-nominated performance by Nathan MacKinnon. The Golden Knights fired Gerard Gallant, hired Peter DeBoer from the archrival Sharks and won the Pacific Division with 86 points. The Stars fired coach Jim Montgomery in December because of off-ice issues, promoted assistant Rick Bowness to interim coach and finished fourth in the West with 82 points.

First line: The two best lines in the round-robin aren't currently playing together: Colorado's MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen, a candidate for the best line in hockey, and Vegas' William Karlsson, Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith, a longstanding trio that dominates when united. The Golden Knights also have a dynamic line when they move Karlsson in with Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty, who is still working his way back into the lineup. The Avalanche line is just too good to keep apart for too long if they're all healthy. Advantage: Colorado

Forward depth: The Blues return much of the wrecking crew from the previous postseason, including Tarasenko, who was limited to 10 regular-season games because of shoulder surgery. GM Joe Sakic addressed some depth issues for the Avalanche by acquiring Nazem Kadri, Joonas Donskoi, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Vladislav Namestnikov and the surprisingly good Valeri Nichushkin in the past year. The playoff acumen of Joe Pavelski will be valuable for Dallas, but the Stars are still a top-heavy team at forward. The Golden Knights have a stellar top six and the "meat grinder" line with Ryan Reaves. It's close between the Blues and Avalanche, but overall, it's difficult to deny the champions' depth here. Advantage: St. Louis

Defense: The three best defensemen in the round-robin are Alex Pietrangelo, who should have been a Norris finalist for the Blues; Miro Heiskanen, the brilliant 21-year-old for the Stars; and, with due respect to Shea Theodore, Cale Makar of the Avalanche, as there's no denying the brilliance of the Calder Trophy candidate, at least offensively. Top to bottom, the Blues have the edge in overall blue-line depth, especially with the smart deadline addition of Marco Scandella. Advantage: St. Louis

Goaltending: These are four tremendously good goalie tandems. Few goalies can claim to have won the Stanley Cup on the road in a Game 7, but Jordan Binnington is one of them. Both Binnington (12.9 goals saved above average) and Jake Allen (10.8) were terrific this season. So were Colorado's Philipp Grubauer (12.6) and Pavel Francouz, who went 21-7-4 with a .923 save percentage. For a while, the Stars laid claim to the best goalie tandem in the West, with Ben Bishop and Anton Khudobin, who combined for a 2.52 goals-against average, second only to that of Boston. But when the Golden Knights traded for Robin Lehner at the deadline as insurance in case Marc-Andre Fleury's struggles continued, that changed the conversation. It's a very tight race, but we have to give the Knights the edge. Advantage: Vegas

Coaching: Craig Berube of St. Louis was a finalist for the Jack Adams last season after the Blues' second-half turnaround. The Golden Knights' DeBoer has taken two teams to the Stanley Cup Final but lost both times. Colorado's Jared Bednar never gets the credit he deserves behind the bench, with three straight 90-plus-point seasons. Bowness, at 65 the NHL's oldest active head coach, kept the Stars together through a tumultuous season and built on the system that was already in place. He hasn't coached in the playoffs since 1992 with the Bruins. Although DeBoer might be the best tactician here, Berube has shown himself to be the best fit with this team. Advantage: St. Louis

Neutral-ice advantage: The Golden Knights suffer the most here, as playing in Vegas during the playoffs gives them a distinct home-ice advantage. But given this surreal situation, the Blues have to get the nod as a veteran team that has shown an uncanny ability to play through adversity and, more importantly, move on from it. Advantage: St. Louis

Special teams: The Blues had the best power play among these teams, ranking third at 24.3% despite not having Tarasenko. The Avalanche (81.4%) had the highest-rated penalty kill (13th), with Dallas (17th) and the Blues (18th) behind them. The Golden Knights were ninth on the power play and 27th on the kill. Advantage: St. Louis


Prediction:

1. Avalanche
2. Blues
3. Stars
4. Golden Knights

The Knights are still healing, the Stars are a stout defensive team, and we're predicting that the Avalanche will make an early statement with a win over St. Louis for the top seed in the conference.

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No. 5 Edmonton Oilers vs. No. 12 Chicago Blackhawks

Series pick: Edmonton in four. McDavid and Draisaitl can win a best-of-five sprint on their own against a team that didn't earn a playoff spot.

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No. 6 Nashville Predators vs. No. 11 Arizona Coyotes

Series pick: Arizona in five. On paper, this series leans Nashville, especially when you consider that the Predators weren't healthy most of the season. But in some ways, neither were the Coyotes. In a sprint to three wins, we'll take goaltending and a motivated Taylor Hall in an upset

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No. 7 Vancouver Canucks vs. No. 10 Minnesota Wild

Series pick: Canucks in five. There is a strong analytics case for the Wild to win this series. In fact, the "veteran team takes out young, top-heavy, offensive upstart" narrative being applied to Edmonton vs. Chicago is what you get here. But if the qualification round ends up being "fun, messy chaos in front of a goalie you hope makes the save," well, that's basically Vancouver's style. I was one of the only writers who picked the Canucks for the playoffs in October. I'll pick them again here to win three games against a tough out in Minnesota and advance to the round of 16.

[wayne1218]

No. 8 Calgary Flames vs. No. 9 Winnipeg Jets

Series pick: Flames in 4. Hellebuyck steals a game, but the depth disadvantages for the Jets -- especially on defense -- tilt the series to Calgary.