Sports Handicapping at cappersmall

Sports Handicapping at cappersmall (
-   MLB Baseball (
-   -   Red Sox Commentary from an Old Timer Red Sox Diehard (

savage1 08-22-2018 10:04 AM

Red Sox Commentary from an Old Timer Red Sox Diehard
Imo the present little three game losing streak and little slump the Sox have been in of late should come as not surprise.
I say that because in the overwhelming number of cases in all sports including baseball teams have losing streaks/slumps and/or have achilles heals team which they have trouble defeating, in this case possibly the Indians.
As much as I am excited about the Sox and have enjoyed the season so far, lets not forget that they the longest losing streak they have experienced up until now was also three games back in April.
Things may be just evening out now.
I for one have never felt all things considered that the Sox would win the 114-116 games predicted for them by some because imo for one thing they do have some glaring weaknesses with the bottom third on lineup and frankly because they haven't shown anywhere near the ability to win against the likes of the Yankees, Oakland, Seattle, Houston and now Cleveland as they have against the rest of the league.
Also, the Sox still have a good number of games remaining with the Yankees, Indians and Astros.
I still think Sox will win the division but from here on out will pretty much coast and win about 105 games.
I won't be shocked if the Sox continue to struggle against Cleveland and end up going 2-5 against them or possible but not probably even worse.
If the Yankees struggle against the likes of Tampa and Baltimore, who is to say that the Sox cannot continue to have problems with the Indians who swept them in the playoffs a couple of years ago.
Don't get me wrong-overall I still think they have as good a chance of doing well in playoffs and/or getting to WS and maybe even winning it, but imo it is far from a lock as there are a lot of good teams they will have to to get by to get there.

savage1 08-26-2018 03:17 PM

This week surprised me not because the Sox went 2-5 but because of how they did it.
I was worried and started this thread after they lost the first two against Cleveland, and was relieved when they won the next two.
I thought that they might have some momentum going into TB and you saw what just happened, namely a three game sweep by the Rays.
I stick pretty much as to what I said in previous post, but it wouldn't surprise me going forward if at the very least between now and the end of the season the Yankees throw a scare into the Sox by drawing within a few games.
Hopefully this is not 2011 all over again with the September collapse and all, but the lead while fairly comfortable at the moment can dwindle fast if the Sox keep losing and the Yankees go on a roll.

savage1 08-26-2018 08:34 PM

Its not generally a good idea to make a future projection based on one or two series.
However imo if the Sox don't take a bare minimum of four out of the next six games, it may not bode well.
I say that because the next two games are against the Marlins at Fenway and the four after that against the White Sox on the road.
For me anything less than that would tell me that the Sox are just not playing well.
Even worse is the fact that the next seven games are at home for the Yankees- three with the White Sox and four with the Tigers.
I don't need to tell yu what that once 10 1/2 game lead and now six will look like if the Sox falter and Yankees play well.
All that said, if I had to predict today how the standings will look at end of the season, imo the Sox will win about 105 or so games while the Yankees will finish two or three games back.
ps Don't forget also that the Sox have six games remaining with the Yankees, this time unlike last during the four game sweep in Boston, the Yankees will have their full complement of players.
Obviously each of those games is two game swing in the standings.
In short, while not yet in fully worry mode, I would be lying if I didn't say that at present things don't look anywhere near as rosy for the Sox as they did a week or so ago.

MtrCtyPimp 08-26-2018 10:33 PM

If they blow the division that would be a brutal collapse but their biggest problems IMO will be the Astros & Yankees.

If I had to rank teams in the AL it would be Houston, Yankees, Red Sox & Indians tied and then the #2 WC.

Problem is in the playoffs 1 hot pitcher or locked in hitter can carry a team and on the flip side 1 great arm in the pen can have a bad week and end a season as well.

Playoffs are random. I just dont have faith in the depth of the Red Sox or Indians pen but I guess that can be somewhat mitigated with the extra off days.

The Astro rotation is just sick. Hell their entire team is when its 1-25. I think getting McCann back is gonna be huge not sure off the top of my head what the stats are but I bet when McCann catches their SP #s are much better than when anyone else catches


savage1 08-26-2018 11:15 PM

Here is an article by Nick Cafardo, much of which I agree with:

The AL East appears to be a race again

savage1 08-28-2018 07:20 AM

As a Sox fan I am of course happy that the White Sox defeated the Yankees last night.
On the other hand I am concerned that the Sox have four games with the White Sox on the road this weekend because they have been hot of late.
On the other hand the Yankees play the Tigers this weekend in NY which could easily result in a sweep, all of which could tighten the race even more.

savage1 08-30-2018 10:45 PM

What a great night for the Sox and their fans.
The Sox come back late from 4-0 deficit and slam the still very suspect and stinking White Sox in spite of their little winning steak of late, while the Yankee bullpen pisses away a two run lead in the ninth against the Tigers.

savage1 09-04-2018 06:42 PM

I will be very surprised if the Sox sweep this three games with Atlanta, as Sox are sort of coasting whereas Atlanta really needs as many games as possible to win their Division-in addition the Braves are a very good team and at times pretty tough at home.

savage1 09-05-2018 06:38 AM

Well perhaps they can sweep it after all as it is down to one game now.
Win or lose today, imo Atlanta is a very nice up and coming team, but it appears that at this moment they are still a bit short as far as being able to compete successfully with a team like the Sox.

savage1 09-05-2018 01:04 PM

It looks like I was the right the first time, that they won't sweep Atlanta.

savage1 09-05-2018 02:59 PM


Originally Posted by savage1 (Post 8187653)
It looks like I was the right the first time, that they won't sweep Atlanta.

In this case I love being wrong!!!
What a great comeback!!!

savage1 09-05-2018 03:25 PM

Some folks are pissed at the Braves for blowing the lead because they bet on them today.
I can understand their frustration, but really even if the Braves botched a play or two, you got to give the Sox plenty of credit for coming back not just once late in the game (eighth inning trailing by six) but twice including the two out go ahead home run by Phillips in the ninth.

savage1 09-06-2018 09:55 PM

Needless to say this upcoming three game series at Fenway with the world champion Astros should be intriguing.
The Stros are pretty much healed now and have an excellent road record.
We all know what happened is last year's first round of the playoffs, and from a Sox fan point of view it wasn't pretty.
The Stros especially have to play hard as Oakland in on their tail, whereas the Sox although they are in the driver's seat in their division, still have something to prove here in view of their overall outstanding record.
I won't make any predictions, but will be disappointed if they can't win at least two games in this series.
If on the other hand, they should sweep the Astros, then well you finish the sentence.
If they should get swept, then I would be really concerned no matter how well they do for the rest of the regular season.

savage1 09-07-2018 01:58 PM

All things considered, for me the line showing that Houston is a -116 favorite tonight against the Sox is what the line should be IF the game was being played in Houston rather than at Fenway, where imo win or lose, the Sox don't deserve to be the underdog in this instance.

savage1 09-07-2018 05:05 PM

For me even though these games with the Astros at Fenway feel almost like playoff games because they are the defending champions and knocked the Sox out of playoffs last season.
Of course at this juncture they are not season changing games as they would be if they were in a dogfight with the Yankees for the division, but still at least for me they add a certain measure of excitement and interest that wouldn't be there if they were playing just any team except the Yankees, the games between the two always hold special interest because of the eternal rivalry which never disappears.

savage1 09-07-2018 08:08 PM

If this game stays close, I hope Price stays in as long as is humanly possible.
This is the type of close game that they definitely don't need someone like Barnes to blow it in the later innings.

savage1 09-07-2018 08:32 PM

Just as I feared and predicted after Price leaves the game
1st pitch and just like that it is 2-1 with tie and go ahead runs in scoring position.
This is the kind of low scoring game in which Astros excel.

savage1 09-07-2018 08:40 PM


Originally Posted by savage1 (Post 8190409)
If this game stays close, I hope Price stays in as long as is humanly possible.
This is the type of close game that they definitely don't need someone like Barnes to blow it in the later innings.

Even though it wasn't Barnes who blew the lead, I rest my case, so far that is.

savage1 09-07-2018 09:12 PM

As you can see, the late inning relief and set-up guys for the Sox aren't anything to write home about, and imo will be the most serious threat to their undoing come playoff time.

savage1 09-08-2018 04:10 PM

If the standings hold up, it appears that the Sox will play the winner of the Yankees Oakland Wildcard game in the first round.
That would mean that Cleveland would play Houston in the first round if I am not mistaken.
Lets say that in that instance if I had to choose which opponent would be easier for the Sox should they get by first round, I would pick Cleveland as Houston has a lot of confidence in playing the Sox as we are seeing so far anyways in this series with the Sox, some of which may be a carryover from first round of playoffs last season when they defeated them three games to one.

savage1 09-09-2018 12:17 AM

Imo another loss tomorrow night to the Angels would be very worrisome indeed to the Sox.
Lets face it-the only reason they have the record they do is that they have demolished the weaker teams whereas the other playoff contenders have done nowhere as near as well.
I don't have the exact record of the Sox against the four other teams in the AL who will be in post season, but from memory it is right around .500.
Imo when Houston is healthy as is the case now, they are probably the best balanced team in the AL especially when it comes to pitching.
It doesn't mean that they are necessarily going to the WS but from the way the first two games have played out, it is quite obvious that the Sox will have to beat them if they should meet in the playoffs.

savage1 09-10-2018 06:44 AM

I meant Astros in first line in previous post.
Although the Sox prevailed last night, I am more convinced than ever after watching this series that although the standings show the Sox clearly the best team based on their record, when you come right down to it and based on their roughly 500 record against the contenders, imo they are no better than the latter and will have their work cut out just to get by the first round no matter who they play.
The bullpen as a whole ia obviously the big concern, and they will have to perform a lot better and a lot more consistently if the Sox are going to advance.

savage1 09-16-2018 12:49 PM

So far in this series with Mets, it is apparent to me that the Sox have trouble with excellent pitching and especially so if they haven't faced the same pitchers in this season, which is the case here.
ps Just as I write what I just did, Holt cranks a 2 run HR-got to love it! lol

hawks98 09-18-2018 02:31 AM

Savage what’s your thoughts on tomorrow’s game against the Yanks ?. Thanks.

savage1 09-18-2018 06:16 AM


Originally Posted by hawks98 (Post 8202989)
Savage what’s your thoughts on tomorrow’s game against the Yanks ?. Thanks.

Hawks-imo this is a difficult game and for that matter a difficult series to analyze other than pitching matchups.
The way I look at it is that the magic number is 2 to clinch AL East which means that just one win out of the three games will do it.
Both the Sox and Yankee players know it.
In view of this I think there are at least several psychological factors which need to be considered:
1) The games are at Yankee Stadium, and the Yankees who are in a playoff battle themselves to secure HF advantage in the WC card game probably against Oakland, need to win as many games as possible in this series, while the Sox are in a position of not having to go out because as stated it is just a matter of time before the win the division.
However and also in this instance I am quite sure that the Yankees hate the thought of the hated Red Sox clinching the division in their home ball park.
That will also give them extra incentive to win.
2) You go to consider also that from both team's point of view there is a good chance that if the Yankees win the WC game, they may very well meet in the playoffs.
Thus imo neither team wants the other to get any kind of psychological advantage by dominating this series.
3) Don't forget also that in the last series at Fenway, the Sox pulled off a four game sweep, part of which imo may have been due to the fact that Judge and Sanchez were injured and did not play.
I am sure that the Yankees want to make amends for that now that these players are back(I believe Judge will be playing but am not sure.
Keep in mind also that the Sox have players and pitchers who are not at 100% percent, meaning that in the eyes of Cora the rest factor may and getting ready for the playoffs may outweigh going all out in these games.
In a little more direct answer to your question regarding today's game assuming it will be played because inclement weather, imo I don't think it is a great bet either way mostly for reasons stated above.
Sure the Sox would like to clinch and get it over with today but that is easier said than done.
With everything said, imo it is still likely that the Sox will win at least one of these three games, although I can't say which one.
Sorry for the long winded response but in all honesty that is my overall perception both for today's game and this entire series.

All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:22 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
Resources saved on this page: MySQL 14.29%